I wrote a post here on the possibility of the US Military conducting an NEO in Egypt. I received this comment this morning and just have to respond. Anonymous wrote:
Ok, if we do a NEO we will only put in a few very small security forces at a couple of airports - Cairo, Alex, Luxor - and we would contract a bunch of commerical airliners (or even cruise ships) to haul out all the US (and EU, Japanese, etc) tourists. We'd do that in cooperation and coordination with (especially)the EU. If we have to RESCUE those tourists as opposed to a NEO then it is a whole different ball game. Not at that point yet. Keep in mind that we already have quite a few US military folks there as part of the training/advisor mission... Such a NEO is most definitely NOT "mission impossible" - just a trifle difficult, expensive and a big operation - and, oh by the way, it is already underway.Wow.
He/She/It seems quite sure of themselves. I had to check this out...from CNN...
...At least 220 Americans had been evacuated from Egypt as of Monday evening, according to the State Department. Another 175 were boarding a flight to Athens, Greece, Monday evening, according to the agency.The first plane out was a Cyprus-bound flight with 42 people aboard, the government said. It landed Monday afternoon.Sorry, but if this were a military operation, I'd be lambasting the Officer in Charge for non-performance.
Despite earlier reports that flights would be subject to Egypt's 3 p.m. curfew, the State Department said flights would depart around the clock. U.S. officials hoped to evacuate 900 people on Monday.
About 52,000 Americans are believed to be in Egypt. Of those, more than 2,400 have asked to be evacuated, Jacobs said. But she expected those numbers would rise as the unrest continues...
Operations are underway and they have initially evacuated 220 people?
2400 people have asked to be evacuated and the number is almost certain to rise?
Not text book in my mind.
Also I'm sure that the writer is speaking about troops in the Peace Keeping force out in the desert. Do you think that they can be easily retasked? I don't know the unit and really its irrelevant. The point remains that the US State Department much like USAID in Haiti is in over its head.
I've tried to remain open minded but it appears that the current Commander in Chief is attempting to usurp traditional military missions and give them to civilian agencies.
The US Peacekeeping Force includes a full battalion plus (some) helos, so I wouldn't call them irrelevant. Also, they're there for a year-long tour or so, meaning they know the land and the people - not something to underestimate.
ReplyDeleteFurther, freedom of movement is an issue, even at times like these. You can't just drop foreign troops into the country and expect/demand/seize total control over strategic roads and airports.
The situation seems under control, with no assaults on embassies or other foreign buildings/factories in the area (Heineken even has a beer factory in Muslim Egypt, no kidding, and it hasn't been touched - yet).
A phased pull-out with an orderly evac of nationals is preferable over a NEO anytime.
oh and you think that they can be re-tasked to the mission of NEO ????
ReplyDeletei don't.
also, the point of the peacekeeping mission is under the UN banner.
if all of a sudden you take them from that mission and throw them at a US mission then you set an unpleasant precedent.
your talk about dropping foreign troops into a country and seizing roads and airports misses the point.
my thought is that forces would airland on sovereign US territory..the US embassy and would leave from there. Marine and SOCOM helicopters can refuel in flight so the footprint of troops on the ground would be minimal.
a Battalion of Marines to reinforce the embassy and several dozen helos to fly out to Navy ships and then a JSHV trip to Cyprus!
easy peezee...and much more effective than the State Dept. bullshit.
A National Guard infantry Battn. [Kansas, I think], and a regular army support battalion --anything from Medical to EOD to...-- are at Sinai, plus assorted HQ staff.
ReplyDeleteInfantry Battn. might be dispersed by 28 posts they share with Colombia and Fiji. I think I have the share and location somewhere. Drop me an email if you want me to look more into that.
Marcase, the MFO site quotes US batts. rotating every 6 months. Some info is out of date, but are you sure about your year-long data? Also, I'm not so sure Sinai and the Nile Valley are that similar --which they might, I simply don't know--.
Sol, they're not under UN banner. It's an agreement between Egypt and Israel done _specifically_ over the heads of the UN. The UN is a non-issue, in this particular case --which might be the reason it's kinda worked out so far--.
Take care. Ferran.
PS: What's the perception west there about Israel defending Mubarak publicly?
Good info Ferran. So my question to you is this. not to slam the National Guard but are they even trained to perform NEO missions? And shouldn't they be on full force protection alert for the threat of terrorist action. Seems like it would be pretty hard to twist from one mission to the other and thin out the line in the desert and reinforce an embassy.
ReplyDeleteAlso I can't speak for my fellow countrymen but it makes sense to me.
Better a dictator that has the sense to look out for his country's economic interest than to allow hardliners to turn Egypt into another Iran.
And that's the big fear. If Egypt becomes Iran Jr. then all bets are off...5 dollar gas is here, I'll have to stock up on more ammo and Israel will be on a rampage. Surrounded, outgunned and looking to take off heads.
We do live in interesting times.
WRT to the NG, I haven't got a clue. Spanish draftee, if you recall. I don't even quite understand the role of the NG.
ReplyDeleteWRT Israel, yes I can see the sense. What I'm not sure is that it's wise to _publicly_ support him... when you're Israel. Assuming you're sincere, of course.
Take care.
220 people is a joke, that's only one aircraft load. If you have "round the clock" flights, what are you using a Cessna?
ReplyDeleteTim!!!!
ReplyDeleteExactly!!!
It doesn't take a rocket scientist or a logistics expert to move those few people.
Its time to take a look at our relationship to our citizens that choose to live in other countries.
Do we really have a responsibility to go get them if trouble flairs???
Sol,
ReplyDeleteThat's part of your social contract. You should find what fits you best. I can tell you that no sane Spaniard would trust his government to bail him out.
Also, more data on the previous [*]
According to the MFO magazine, Sept 2010, the current NG is Illinois' 2nd Bat, 123 Field Arty. Regt. and should be on station for 10 months.
+ Annual report 2010, forces deployed:
Australia Staff [25]
Canada Liaison, Air Traffic Control [28]
Colombia Infantry Battalion [358]
Czech Republic Staff [3]
Fiji Infantry Battalion [338]
France Liaison [2]
Hungary Military Police [42]
Italy Coastal Patrol Unit [78]
New Zealand Training, Transport [28]
Norway Staff [3]
Uruguay Engineering, Transport [58]
United States Infantry Battalion [425]
Composite Logistics Battalion [228]
Staff [40]
Total: 1656
+ Annual report, 2009, page 28 [ http://www.mfo.org/documents.php ]
Loos like US forces have the southernmost part of the peninsula, zone C-south. Kinda hard to travel to Cairo on their own. Might be useful embedded, I'd guess, though.
[*] BTW, that "If you're sincere" was not a personal you, of course. Just in case. But I have to wonder if Israel really wants Mubarak. I don't see that their public support is going to do any good and might harm him a lot.
52,000 US citizens, and you want to cram them into one US embassy? :)
ReplyDeleteI might be mistaken, but the current USPK rotation is something around 10 months or so for the two battalions. Besides manning OPs in the Sinai, they also visit the towns and tourist traps, and have connections with the local communities in one form or another by adopting a school or painting a hospital, that kind of hearts & minds thing. Then there are the staff functions which last more than one rotational tour.
About reflagging them away from UN command; that's in the contract - national authority can recall detached troops under UN authority at its convenience.
Sure these wouldn't be professional NEO trps, but they could beef up the embassy marines.
Point I was trying to make, is that there are US troops in-country, if only to show the flag. You can't just drop MEU marines as their helos would still require overflight rights.
I doubt Egypt would shoot them out of the air, but still.
Back to Egypt; the US has one trump card, and that is its good relations with the Egyptian military. And those guys are the respected force in the streets right now - unlike the (secret) police which is still viewed as Mubarak's Gestapo (with reason).
Any new Egyptian Prez will have to have the army's support, so that way the US still has a bit of influence.
Just background, the Netherlands by now evacuated 2,700 of a planned 4,200 (known) Dutch tourists, which are supposed to be all evac'd by next wednesday, via chartered flights.
ReplyDeleteExtra evac capacity (empty seats on these flights) will be shared with the EU and partner nations/organizations (any other country which wishes to evac citizens).
I am worried about M1A1 Abrams tanks and Egypt’s fleet of 220 F-16s being in fundamentalist hands.Another Iran????
ReplyDelete'my thought is that forces would airland on sovereign US territory..the US embassy and would leave from there. '
ReplyDeleteThis isnt the fall of Saigon...
There are obvious comparisons to Iran - hugely unpopular, corrupt, autocratic, brutal, US backed dictator being outed by a popular uprising (why is it that the US conveniently forgets its 'deep' values when it looks abroad?).
However the situations are very different, violence has been very limited, the army is siding with the protestors, the main opposition - the Muslim Brotherhood - is firmly non-violent in its outlook, whilst the most prominent opposition leader is an internationally respected diplomat and nobel peace prize winner.
Unrest is limited to only the major cities, but again despite some looting is essentially non-violent. Crucially all of the main tourist destinations around the red-sea are thus far unaffected and commercial air transport is operating.
A few countries, including the US have put on a few extra flights to accomodate those tourists who want to leave before their scheduled flights, but most countries (like the UK for example) whilst advising against travel to Egypt see no need to be evacuating people.
Talking about sending in the marines and conducting airlift operations is frankly utterly ridiculous at this point. It also completely ignores the fact that the US has no right to be flying military aircraft unauthorised in another country's soveriegn airspace.
Your idea of airlifting from the US embassy is also utterly counter intuitive - you're going to take the tourists from where they're safe (the red sea) and transport them hundreds of miles to the US embassy in Cairo - the one place that they might be under threat.
Sol says, I'll have to stock up on more ammunition!
ReplyDeleteYou sound like one 'Gung Ho' idiot,this is the real world coming home to you now and all you can think of is the price of your gas is going up.
Egypt is thousands of miles away and you are pissing your pants and once again talking of intervention.
We are the countries on the doorstep of the middle east perhaps that is why we try diplomacy first ( You have heard of diplomacy haven't you.
If you lot go charging in and Suez gets closed you will be paying a damn sight more than $5 for your gas.
Just one other thing who was it that pressurised the UK and France to pull out when the Egyptians nationilised the canal.
So you prefer a dictator do you,well my friend I'm afraid the populace of Egypt do not share your preference,which is soley driven by your own self interests,and if you want to keep some sort of influence in the area you would do better to listen to them instead of trying to force your own policy onto them.
Get used to it,the wests days of wielding a big stick are over and the balance of power is rapidly changing and we are going to have to adapt to it.
I suppose you could always take to the mountains with your gun and extra ammo along with the other ultra right wing morons.
I must correct my previous post, the UK is now going to put on an extra charter flight for Britons seeking to leave before their scheduled flights. It does however appear to be more of a UK domestic political concilliatory move rather than an actual belief that it's necessary.
ReplyDeleteMy correction doesn't mean however that at this point the idea of evacuating american citizens by US military helicopters off the roof of the US embassy in Cairo is any less stupid.
Nor does it detract from the point that the protests have been almost entirely peaceful, and given the non-violence stance of both the Muslim Brotherhood and now the Egyptian Army that they look likely to continue to remain so.
Saw Sollie the rightwing idiot sprouting all over the internet, frequenting sites like the Firearm blog and many others. Yeah, he will probably take to the mountains with his gun and ammo.
ReplyDeletekeep an eye out for HSV-2 Swift location and I'll watch MSC website for ferry RFPs.
ReplyDeletethis would be a good use of Hawaii Super Ferrys which the USN has not and may not buy - dahh~