Wednesday, January 20, 2016

CNBC is calling for potentially 20 dollar a barrel oil and a recession. UPDATE 2

Monitoring the exchange this morning and its off 270 as I type this.  For the first time they're calling for 20 dollar a barrel oil and a recession.

Be aware.  The monied class is spooked.

UPDATE:  The Dow is down 400 pts.  When will the financial gurus finally admit that what we're seeing is a bursting of the oil bubble.  There was NO reason for oil to be upwards of 150 dollars a barrel while the world was struggling to come out of the "Great Recession".  Oil was inflated because speculators saw it as a place to make quick cash.  Why the crash now?  Because the smart money fled and the stupid money stayed...getting crushed in the process.

UPDATE:  Dalio said the following on CNBC this warned...its shocking....
Dalio says, will create a “negative wealth effect”, the opposite of Bernanke’s infamous virtuous circle wherein Americans would supposedly spend more and thus boost the economy if only the Fed could repair the damage their 401ks suffered in 2008.
In short, Dalio reiterated his contention that the Fed will ultimately be forced into QE4 and that the much ballyhooed tightening cycle will essentially amount to a one-off, “just to show you we could do it,” blip on the ZIRP radar screen. “Every country in the world needs easier monetary policy,” Dalio said, before noting that central banks now have less room to ease. He made similar comments in September of last year in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
Dalio also said he’s concerned that the Fed isn’t concerned. When Becky Quick suggested the FOMC is more vigilant than the market might think, Dalio responded with this: “I hope you’re right.”
As for the fact that the historical relationships between asset classes (volatilities and correlations) that are used to construct optimal "risk-parity" funds in order that 'risk' is balanced and hedged across bonds and stocks have all broken down dramatically causing funds like Bridgewater’s vaunted "All Weather" portfolio to sink, Dalio warned that if assets remain correlated and things continue to move in the “wrong” direction, “they’ll be a depression.”
That, he concluded, is why MOAR QE, and thus a return to the “full-Krugman” regime, is a virtual certainty.
Smart money is getting spooked people.  When the wise guys in the stock market start talking openly about stuff like this then you better watch out.  Why?  Because this means that they've already acted to protect their wealth. 

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