Note. This is a must read article for Marine Corps supporters. I think critical mass is being reached and everyone (except for the inner circle around the Commandant) is waking up to the idea that Force Design 2030 is an evolutionary dead end.
via WOTR
Commandant Eric Smith clearly articulated his vision for the future of the Marine Corps: While retaining focus on the China threat, the service will recenter on global crisis response. This means getting more marines — and more of their combat gear — on ship and deployed around the world. Smith believes marines should be America’s premier 9-1-1 force, just like they were before the “Global War on Terror.” But as I pointed out in the first two parts of this series, he faces some daunting challenges. Recentering the Marine Corps on crisis response will require more than just “re-bluing,” or getting marines back on globally deployed Navy ships.
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Presently, the Marine Corps has focused its capabilities on the China pacing threat around an area generally circumscribed by the nine-dash line, an imaginary delineation of control implied by the Chinese Communist Party. With Task Force 61/2, some efforts have been made to extrapolate the stand-in force capability to other theaters. However, China remains the pacing threat for the Marine Corps and the nine-dash Line remains the focus of attention for the Department of Defense.
But China is also a global power with extensive global economic interests and dependencies. It has purchased, leased, or otherwise imposed itself along the coastline from the western reaches of North Africa through an arc into Southeast Asia. Thus far, these investments and interests have gone mostly unchallenged. China has not had to deploy significant military forces to sustain its Belt and Road program, nor has it had to fight a deployed war. And it has relatively limited capacity to do either.
China is strong along its coastline but gets weaker and weaker the further its forces operate from its homeland sensors, maritime, air, and missile forces. In fact, none of America’s adversaries have a meaningful global power projection capability. So this out of area dynamic also applies to Russia, Iran, North Korea, and other adversaries. Competing with adversaries out of area is an excellent way to apply the great power competition aspects of irregular warfare, to stretch adversaries and, if necessary, to defeat them where they are at their weakest.
Read the whole thing its well worth it.
What do I want to emphasize?
The Chinese are building a GLOBAL FORCE! They have been smart. Real smart. They have not allowed themselves to become embroiled in the small wars that their vassal states are engaged in.
That will change.
Sooner or later they're gonna have to defend their interests around the globe. While I don't see them becoming World Police version 2, I do think that they will eventually have to protect their investments.
That means wars in Africa, sometimes the Middle East, to the surprise of many South America (!), and of course in Asia.
Fighting the Chinese out of area is gonna be the new hotness. Taiwan is about heritage for the Chinese. The other areas will be about business.
Expect the fight. Gear up for that fight. But do it now while we still have a LITTLE time.
