Mark Levin has labeled people like me that have doubts about the Iran war as Nazis & Anti-Semites. But are we falling into an escalation trap?

The Escalation Trap works like this: pic.twitter.com/AeJwoYzkEO

— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) March 15, 2026

Most wars escalate beyond what leaders intend.

I study this dynamic — the Escalation Trap.

The Iran war is now showing the same strategic patterns seen in Vietnam and Kosovo.

I write short strategic briefings explaining what to watch next.

Subscribe:
https://t.co/JdhoWKJ5P0 pic.twitter.com/kOijVQFtpI

— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) March 13, 2026

I don't see the connection he's making with past wars BUT I DO agree with his premise. So what is the "escalation trap" here? I believe its the same as we found in Iraq and Afghanistan. We can win the battles, but controlling the populations while fighting a counter insurgency is the main risk I think.

We've been incredibly successful up to this point in the war.  The Iranian Navy is done.  The Army is on its back foot and the elite forces are hollowed out.

Uprisings by the people are increasing and local security forces are in a bind.

My worry is that once they setup a replacement govt the call will go out to provide "stabilization" forces.

The Israelis can't participate.

The Europeans won't participate.

That leaves the US (we broke it, we own it) and in essence UN peacekeepers (mercenaries) from undeveloped or developing countries to be paid a price to provide troops.

This means years on the ground while every terrorist group in the region attempts to flood in to kill Americans trying to rebuild the country.  It means holders on from the previous regime trying to reclaim power.

It means terror attacks on our home soil as muslims are further radicalized.

It won't be a typical escalation trap but the sad old tale of how America gets its shit pushed in despite having the most powerful military in the world, even after we literally destroyed the enemy.

Hope I'm wrong.

But one thing is true.

We can take out any country on this planet.  We just can't rebuild after we tear it up.