Consider this a short shout. Kinda want to see what others think.
Ukraine is heading off the front page of US news. In its place are the elections, inflation, gas prices and baby formula...along with the usual spattering of various crimes from around the country (latest biggies are the former NFL player that jacked up a ticket dude at an airport and some chic in Texas that killed her rival that was an up and coming bicyclist).
In my opinion this is when things get dangerous for all sides.
Lack of public attention means that a once VERY public war becomes back burner news. This is when you can see some spooky, seriously lethal (is there any kind of lethal?) and gamesmanship beyond recognition happen.
From where I sit, I think Odessa is looming as the next big fight. I also believe that its being telegraphed with the anti-ship missiles being sent to Ukraine.
If I'm right the outcome of that fight will determine the war. If the Russians get Odessa they'll consolidate and declare victory. If the Ukrainians can hold out then they'll try and bleed Russia white.
Time will tell if I'm reading it right.