MV-22 aboard BPC Dixmude.

Note:  Can anyone tell me the REAL quantifiable benefits of operating from foreign vessels?

How can the F-35 win the long range fight?

pic via Air Power Australia

Via War is Boring...

Don’t sweat it, JSF-maker Lockheed Martin responded. “The F-35’s technology is designed to engage, shoot and kill its enemy from long distances,” Lockheed’s F-35 team wrote in a press release on July 1.
As a rebuttal to the test pilot report, Lockheed’s claim is a cynically useful one — it sidesteps the criticism without really confirming or denying it. But that doesn’t mean the company’s test-report rebuttal is actually true.
Can the F-35 really engage, shoot and kill its enemy from long distances? There are reasons to believe it can’t. The stealth fighter lacks the sensors, weapons and speed that allow a warplane to reliably detect and shoot down other planes in combat. Especially when those planes are shooting back.
In short—the F-35 isn’t much of a dogfighter. And it’s probably not very good at long-range aerial combat, either.

Story here.

I read the WIB story and it made me pause.  I naturally assumed that the F-35 would be a dog in a close fight but would hold its own at distance.

From what little I've been able to dig up, I no longer believe that to be true.

First lets take a look at how we're expecting the F-22 and other air superiority airplanes to fight the long range war....they will fly high and fast...they won't be in after burner but they'll be up around 40-60K feet up and they'll be in supercruise.  More than likely they won't be emitting and will use "other platforms" to locate their targets.  Once found they'll zoom up to max height, go to burner to add speed to their missiles (remember they're already super cruising) and they'll launch.  Lets stop there.

How would the F-35 do it?

Again.  I'm not an expert on this trash.  Aviation guys correct me...on this subject I'll welcome it.

But back to the F-35.  It flies lower.  30K?  It flies slower.  Cruise speed is ALMOST slower than a modern airliner.  Its ability to add burner to impart energy is limited.  Now to add to the issues is that its AESA is small in comparison to other fighter and NO MORE advanced.  Its IRST isn't optimized to aerial warfare....

Now add into the issue the Russian K-100 missile.  Airpower Australia thinks that its being designed as an AWACS killer.  What if the Russians clue into the fact that the F-35 basically flies a similar type profile....about 30K up, and high subsonic....

If our enemies develop the same type of network that we have then they will launch outside of the F-35's detection range, the fighter won't be able to return fire because its missiles don't match the best that our enemies have...and they'll be totally defensive from the very start.

The question that defense reporters should ask is simple.  Instead of taking dictation from Lockheed Martin and Pentagon officials, why don't they ask HOW will the F-35 win the long range fight?   Close in its slow and lumbering...at distance its slow, lumbering and has missiles that are outranged, launched by fighters that are faster and higher flying.

The real answer is that the F-35 can't.  The answer is (in my opinion) that the F-35 has to SOMEHOW find that sweet middle spot.  It needs to avoid detection at long range, get to MEDIUM range (as defined today...which is about 100 miles...still almost max distance for the AIM-120D) hope that the missiles have a much improved kill ratio and then hope that the enemy fighters are too busy evading those missiles so that it can sneak away.

But the rub with that theory is that stealth reduction efforts will close the gap to where the hoped for medium range fight turns into a close one.

We're making it too easy for the enemy.  They will destroy the F-35 at their leisure.

Patria AMV is out of the Amphibious Combat Vehicle Competition?

Thanks to Jonathan for the link!

via Defense Aerospace.

The next item in today’s headlines is from Finland’s leading newspaper Helsingin Sanomat. The paper reports on the breakdown of plans for the Finnish defence industry company Patria to supply the US Marines with a fleet of Havoc armoured modular vehicles.

Patria had produced one of several prototypes for the Marine Personnel Carrier competition in association with its US partner Lockheed Martin, but now the Havoc has been dropped from the project.

The Havoc AMV is an 8×8 multi-role military vehicle that is highly mobile. Had the deal gone through, it would have been a billion-dollar success for Patria and a breakthrough in the US market.

Patria head Mika Kari said that investments such as this are huge projects and require a massive amount of resources. Three years ago, after many twists and turns, the US Marine Corps chose the Havoc as one of four wagon types to be developed and 3.5 million dollars was allotted for this purpose.

The Polish military has used the Finnish-made Havoc AMVs successfully in combat conditions in Afghanistan.

Patria is being cheeky.

Remember I contacted them and their spokesperson told me instead to talk to Lockheed Martin when I asked about the partnership dissolving.

If the AMV/Havoc is out then what does that mean?

Not sure.

I have doubts about the program surviving with the new defense strategy.  The USMC is going all in on being a seagoing 101st and every penny is going to prop up the pitiful F-35.

We'll see.  We should have had an announcement of participants at least by now.

F35 numbers under review...

via AOL Breaking Defense...

Then the committee asks Dunford if he supports the requirement for 2,443 Joint Strike Fighters.
The prospective chairman calls the F-35 a “vital component of our effort to ensure the Joint Force maintains dominance in the air.” But there is a big but. He discloses that the requirement for the size of the fleet is being reviewed: “Given the evolving defense strategy and the latest Defense Planning Guidance, we are presently taking the newest strategic foundation and analyzing whether 2,443 aircraft is the correct number. Until the analysis is complete, we need to pursue the current scheduled quantity buy to preclude creating an overall near-term tactical fighter shortfall.”
(A source close to the program was comfortable with the need for review and said nothing has changed strategically enough to change the need for 2,443 planes.)

That bad week for the F-35 is turning into a terrible month.

My guess?

Something evil is brewing in the Pentagon.

They keep talking about "the new defense strategy".  The Army justified the cuts based on that strategy.

All talk about ending sequestration has ended.

The Pentagon's bluff has been called, the accountants are out for blood and the pet project is finally about to get taken down to the river and held under.

My prediction (yeah and I have to say it...AOL is what I call a PRO F-35 publication) is that the program takes at least a 500 plane reduction.  That should jack up the price quite a bit...They're gonna sweeten the pot for Lockheed by pushing forward the block buy plan but that isn't gonna work because the plane isn't ready.

The pain train is leaving the station.  First stop?  Ft. Worth.

More Talisman Sabre 2015 Pics...by Petty Officer 1st Class Louis Rojas

Note: These pics are from the DVIDS FaceBook Page.  They did not name the photographer.  Thanks to Justin for finding the guy behind the lens for me!

124th Amphibious Mechanized Infantry Division via China Defense Blog....

Note:  The commentary they put on this entry is "interesting"...Those PR photos might be dramatic but small scale drill such as this is rather a common, no no longer considered newsworthy. That is the way it should be...more here.

NORINCO VP10 Amphibious Wheeled Armored Personnel Carrier via Defence Blog.

Defence Blog found this little gem (he does good work...you should really check him out) and you're seeing the latest reason for me to be concerned.

For all the talk about previously seen Chinese armor, their personnel carriers/fighting vehicles were somewhat lagging.

Not anymore.

What's worse?

It'll probably make it into service before the ACV 1.1 downselect is completed.

What's worse than that?

The Chinese will sell or gift these to potential allies all over the globe.  The vaunted Company Landing Team is going to be facing an armored opponent in out of area environments and supporting fires will be 1000 miles and an hour or more away.

Pacific Command is doing it right! 25th Infantry Division jumps into Talisman Sabre 2015! (Photo by Sgt. David Beckstrom)

ROCKHAMPTON, Australia (July 8, 2015) - Service members, from 4th Brigade Combat Team, 25th Infantry Division, parachute onto the Kapyong Air Field, Australia, in support of Exercise Talisman Sabre 15.

I talk often about what I view as "going wrong" but rarely do I talk about what's going right.  I think in the future I'll balance that out....meanwhile...

WELL DONE TO PACIFIC COMMAND!

I've pounded the desk and punched walls when it comes to what I view as a NATURAL joining of forces in the Pacific.  Specifically teaming the Marine Expeditionary Unit with a permanent, forward based Army Airborne unit.

The medium weight punch of the MEUs' combined arms team (a complete combined arms team) with the super rapid deployment of airborne units make this a formidable combination.

We should be leveraging it to the fullest.  Having a Marine Expeditionary Unit hovering offshore with an Army Airborne unit an hour out is the kind of deterrent power that we need in this time of chaos.

Talisman Sabre 2015 Amphibious Landing Vid by Tech. Sgt. James Stewart

F-35 doubt spreads...Singapore upgrades its F-16's and Australia rules out F-35B's on the Canberra Class LHD...

Lost in the news of War is Boring's blockbuster on the F-35's piss poor performance in a mock dogfight against a 40 year old fighter is this...Singapore is upgrading its F-16's...via Defense Industry Daily...

Singapore’s Ministry of Defense (MINDEF) has released more information on its plans to upgrade the RSAF’s fleet of F-16C/D fighters. The upgrades will take place in phases from 2016 onward, with various capability enhancements planned. These include laser-designatedJDAM munitions, air-to-air weapons, datalink capability and helmet mounted displays, as well as an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar system, as per a previous DSCA request . The AESA system is thought to be the Northrop Grumman AN/APG-83 Scalable Agile Beam Radar (SABR) system.

Everyone has been waiting to see what the practical, frugal, independent and technologically advanced Singapore Ministry of Defense would do with regard to the F-35.

An update this massive indicates a wait and see approach at the minimum and could signal dissatisfaction with the F-35's performance AND price.

Even worse for the program?  The idea of selling a few F-35B's (in addition to the F-35A's) to the Australians has been sent to Davey Jone's locker.  Eric Palmer Blog is where I first read about it and the story comes from Australia's Financial Review.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott's proposal to put F-35 fighter jets on the Navy's two 27,000-tonne troop transport assault ships has been quietly dropped ahead of the government's defence white paper after it was found the ships would require extensive reworking and the project was too costly.
Mr Abbott asked defence planners in May last year to examine the possibility of putting up to 12 of the short-take-off and vertical-landing F-35 Bs on to the two ships – the largest in the Navy – which carry helicopters and are likely to be primarily used to transport troops and equipment to war or disaster zones.
The first of the assault ships was completed last year and commissioned into the Navy in November as HMAS Canberra.
But defence officials conceded to a Senate estimates committee late last year that the jump-jet proposal would involve extensive modifications to the ships, including new radar systems, instrument landing systems, heat-resistant decking, restructuring of fuel storage and fuel lines, and storage hangars.

There will be no extra batch of F-35's for Australia....they won't be able to use the excuse that its necessary in order to make the amphibious ships that they bought more effective AND they damn sure can't spin the numbers to justify the costs.

A bad week for the F-35 is starting to look like its quickly stretching into a bad month.