I hope these Marines are ok...

 

Uh you do know that China is getting ahold of every anti-tank missile, anti-aircraft missile etc...that the Ukrainians have lost to the Russians...

Uh you guys do know that China is getting ahold of every anti-tank missile, anti-aircraft missile etc...that the Ukrainians have lost to the Russians.

That is the inevitable side effect of the emotional response to this conflict.

So what does that mean?

Since the Russians and Chinese are now strategically allied you can bet that those systems will be reverse engineered by both Russia and China.

Our forces will face those weapons on the battlefield.

It might be in peer vs peer combat but I doubt that...at least in the short term.

We have opened pandora's box with this one.  The Middle East and Africa will be burning hot by the middle of the summer...certainly by next fall.

The food crisis alone will cause conflict, if gas prices don't lower that'll be another stressor.  Conflict will cause mass migration...and that's if we don't see trouble in S. America (which I would expect...the law of unintended consequences and all that jazz).

So we'll see conflict in far off lands.  The UN, the elite, globalist etc...will demand US action.  We'll blunder in as we always doing (playing hero for people that really don't give a fuck...they just don't want to do it themselves) and that will be the time for a little payback.

The rebels, insurgents...whatever you want to call them (although they'll label themselves as freedom fighters) will suddenly be flooded with all types of anti-tank missiles to take out aid trucks, JLTVs, Squad Support Vehicles, Utility Vehicles, FMTVs, probably a couple of helicopters, etc...

In short I think we're looking at a replay of Somalia in the not too distant future.

This is the kinda shit that happens when you emote instead of think. 

Latvian Armed Forces host media day

A U.S. Army AH-64D Apache Longbow helicopter assigned to 1-3rd Attack Battalion, 12th Combat Aviation Brigade, flies by a tank from the Spanish Army during a media day display at Camp Adazi training area, Latvia, March 11, 2022. The Latvian Armed Forces hosted a media day to display the power and interoperability of NATO forces in Latvia participating in the exercise, Saber Strike 22. V Corps is providing command and control over Saber Strike.

I didn't know Canada had a parachute battalion!

 

Soldiers from 3rd Battalion, Royale 22e Régiment, and the United States Army Alaska recently took part in a parachute jump during the Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center 22-02 exercise at Fort Greely, Alaska.
📸 MS Dan Bard pic.twitter.com/kliw2fRtT5

— Canadian Army (@CanadianArmy) March 16, 2022

Third Type 075 LHD Anhui（33) will be commissioned soon

The Chinese are building the Old Corps. Berger is building a new Corps. Wonder who will win when they cross swords. Missiles aimed at the sea versus a force designed to take land.

Third Type 075 LHD Anhui（33) will be commissioned soon 😎 pic.twitter.com/Fx15mRe0Xd

— 彩云香江 (@louischeung_hk) March 17, 2022

Russia is losing a lot of high ranking officers in this fight...

 

The commander of Russia's 12th Engineer Brigade based in Ufa, Colonel Sergei Porokhnya, was reportedly killed in Ukraine while deploying a bridge.https://t.co/w2fNOOESw1https://t.co/FBL6hQLO7o pic.twitter.com/8HAgRtUT79

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 18, 2022

We have a ton of generals/colonels (probably WAAAAY TOOOO MAAAANY!!!). I imagine the Russians do to, but the losses is becoming borderline spectacular. Does their senior leadership operate closer to the front than our own? Is it their doctrine or is Ukrainian Special Ops just getting incredibly lucky. Or is it they are a victim of their comms being compromised?

The Biden Admin just pushed us into a two front war and killed the dollar at the same time...

 

 

Just plain wow.

Is anyone in Washington DC thinking or is emoting the new thing that I somehow missed?

The Chinese play a long game.  For the most part (emphasis on most...I'm sure there are issues that they'll act emotionally about) they have a plan and they're trying to execute it.

Meanwhile the Biden Admin spits in the wind and threatens China?

To what end?

They do it publicly and think that they can somehow "shame" the Chinese to bending to the will of the elite in Washington?

Not a freaking chance.

Instead we've just given them an opening.  My guess is that those moves we've heard (and the IMF has warned about) are about to become reality.

Using the Chinese Dollar as an alternate currency to the American Dollar?  You bet your ass.  Developing a system outside the preferred US/Western Europe cabal?  That's coming too.

All of the above was coming anyway so we should have been prepping for it.  But the Biden Admin has reached so far to punish Russia that its sped up the timetable.

Additionally we pushed so hard that we will see even more of a blending of Chinese and Russian tech.

That alone should make you pause.  Consider this.  The US and Europe has essentially kicked the Russians out of our space programs.

Want to bet money that we'll see the Chinese and Russia unite?  The canary in the coal mine that no one wants to consider?  What if Russia is able to drag the Indian govt along, work out a treaty of some type with the Chinese?

We'll stick with space and aviation programs.  The Russians, Chinese and Indians work together on space and aviation?

Suddenly we see a joint base on the moon between those countries, joint work on hypersonics, the brahmos missile on Chinese ships, Russia building up its nuclear arsenal to cold war levels because its worried about NATO, cooperation economically and just like that you have a new power alliance that can rival the US and Europe.

I'm gonna hit you with a stereotype.  Forgive me but sometimes they apply and in this case I think it does in spades.  Don't slap or humiliate a China-man unless you want a fight.

I don't know how to classify this mess but we're acting like we want the smoke.  We're acting like we want the fight NOW, not in the late 2030s or early 2040s.

I keep spinning on the efficacy of armored vehicles on the modern battlefield...meanwhile Berger is taking a victory lap.

 via SeaPower

 The success of Ukrainian forces in countering Russian armored vehicle columns with missiles and rockets in the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine shows the vulnerability of tanks to missile-armed infantry, the Marine Corps commandant said, and seemed to reinforce his decision to shed tanks from the Corps as part of his Force Design 2030 concept.    

During a live-streamed conversation with Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, Gen. David Berger said the Russian forces seemed to be ineffective in using a combined arms approach in that they were not using “maneuver to bolster your fires or using fires to set up your forces for maneuver. In both cases, one without the other … is very ineffective.” 

Berger also said Ukrainian forces seemed to be effective at causing confusion among Russian forces by stripping away Russian reconnaissance — which he said parenthetically that U.S. Marines “were very, very good at.”  

This is a two parter.  On one hand he is RIGHT and I admitted as much yesterday.  This war seems to validate his decision to remove tanks from the Marine Corps.

ON THE OTHER HAND he admits that the Russians aren't using a combined arms approach to their style of combat.  THAT IS ALSO SOMETHING THE US MARINES WERE WORLD LEADERS AT!!!!

So I remain conflicted on this issue.  He said a couple of other interesting things.

 Berger noted that amphibious operations are very complex and the Russian forces seemed to unnecessarily delay their limited amphibious operations. He said amphibious operations remain very much the core mission of the Corps.    

 “Amphibious landings, amphibious assault, forcible entry — things which Marines are known for for 70 years — we’ll continue to do but in a very different way,” Berger said. “Why? Because the character of war is changing. We need to change with it. 

Weird.  I don't see how this new Marine Corps will do anything besides amphibious landings (something the Army could do) with the force he's building.  Amphibious assault?  How?  Forcible entry?  Only if we're doing it in the same way the 101st would do it if they launched from Navy ships.

I believe he's playing fast and loose with this part.  We're gonna do it in a different way?  The force being built isn't capable of doing it in anyway!

 “So, in some cases, we’ve let go of things that were very successful in the past in order to move towards things that we are going to need in the future,” he said. “The aviation/ground/logistics team — that’s the strength of the Marine Corps having it all organic — we are an enabler for the joint force. We’re the first ones on the scene to figure it out. We need the mobility to do that, which means we need amphibious ships, which [are] critical for the nation to have. 

“You need to have the ability — I would say especially today in Ukraine — to have a crisis response force from the sea,” he said. “That means we need to have the number of amphibious ships necessary to global in the pacific or the Mediterranean. For the U.S., that’s 31 amphibious ships we have to have in order to do what the nation needs us to do.” 

This part irks.  He keeps looking to the past to justify a very fragmented future.  31 amphibious ships?  That's not to do amphibious landings or forcible entry.  That's to land missiles on an island, fire them at ships and run away before the Chinese can land a Battalion Landing Team to crush them.

At first glance the article might be encouraging but when you peel it back its the same old game.

They're trying to live on a Marine Corps past that they're working feverishly to kill.

Story here. 

Sidenote.  I'm gonna wait to see what the US Army says about this fight and the continuation of armored vehicles on the modern battlefield.  Infantry can hazard tanks with anti-tank missiles but steel rain can hazard the FUCK outta infantry.  UAVs can spot for artillery but a well placed anti-air network can knock them out of the air easily.  It's all related and one without the other is vulnerable.  Having said that I think the idea of unmanned ground vehicles has finally arrived.  The time to send a robot where you don't want to send a man (or a bullet to avoid detection) has arrived.

Next EABO is Marine Corps wide.  How would the EABO concept work in Ukraine?  How would the USMC provide a credible crisis response force?  With what?  A few anti-ship missiles, JLTVs and a few ACVs?  This is another part that irritates.  This is a one region, one foe force yet its being played up like its capable of performing all the functions that the old Corps did.  It won't.  With brushfire wars right around the corner the Marine Corps will be on the sidelines waiting for a call from a combatant commander that just won't come.  The best that can be hoped for is that they're attached to either the Army or the Air Force (individual parts, not as part of a MAGTF...not that it really exists anymore).  Not much use for the Navy in the Middle East or Africa...and that's where the next hits will be for the coming 2-5 years.

Belarus revolution?

https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1504200509481173006?t=-xa9xhSbw6dlP6napojaaw&s=09 Readers informed me of this event more to come I'm sure.

A lone Russian tank...the results are predictable...

I am deeply conflicted.

I don't know but supposedly Ukraine is good tank country.  Plains and forests.

But this war.  Forget the tactics.  I'm talking about the lethality of missiles.

Maybe Berger WAS ONTO SOMETHING.

How much heavier do tanks have to get before they're able to shrug off anti-tank missile hits?  I remember a bit ago when the US Army was looking at a replacement for the Bradley and everyone balked at the idea of it weighing as much as an Abrams.

I get it now.

The iron triangle is busted.  

Are we at the point where APS is absolutely essential for an armored vehicle to survive?

Tell ya something else.  The T-14 Armata makes nothing but sense now.  I UNDERSTAND why the Russians were going with a radically different, more heavily armed MBT.

The weird thing?

I can't help but look at this from the USMC's position.  The MAGTF (from smallest to biggest) seems like the ideal formation to survive this type of conflict (properly sized that is).

But we're told that the formation COULD NOT!  Was that propaganda so leadership could crawl back underneath the Navy's wing or the reality of the modern battlefield?

I won't get the answer from a USMC after action on this conflict. I need to see what the US Army says.  USAF too.  I haven't touched on it but from the social media coverage of this thing (and that's what this has been...new media has been using social media to report this story) it would seem that attack helicopters have hit an evolutionary roadblock too.

Of course that leads to the idea that if attack helicopters are dead then so are transport helicopters.

I'm not sure we can trust this conflict to give us answers but what little it can tell us will be fascinating.