Ukrainian military casualties are big trouble for Biden

 via AsiaTimes

In a shocking statement that has now been withdrawn, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote that Ukraine has lost 100,000 soldiers and 20,000 civilians in the Ukraine war. 

This conforms to comments made by US Joint Chief of Staff head General Mark Milley, who in a speech at a conference hosted by New York’s Economic Club said that more than 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the war and that the number of troop casualties is probably the “same” for Ukraine’s army.

Ukraine’s heavy casualties are a signal that Washington’s de facto war with Russia is in trouble. President Joe Biden has to change direction or face a national security crisis that could end his presidency.

Ukraine may look as if it were winning. The truth is the opposite because Ukraine is running out of manpower it cannot replace. It is losing by attrition on the battlefield and, with the Russians systematically destroying its infrastructure, millions of Ukrainians have fled abroad. It is unlikely the country could recover even if the war should end tomorrow.

Here 

I know my audience.  For a vast majority of you this will be downplayed and dismissed.

But for the others I present this idea.

I'm fully onboard with what this article is putting out.

I truly believe we are in a time of max risk with our defense stockpile (Europe is beyond that...this war has crippled us, not only the warring sides).

But about Ukraine itself.

The underreported corruption by the highest ranking officials is happening for a reason.

They know Ukraine as it existed is long gone.

They're setting themselves up for the future by stealing now.

What happens to the country?

I believe Poland.  I am beyond sure that they'll annex portions of Ukraine.

Russia will hold onto what it has.  

The rest?  I don't know.  Perhaps some type of EU administrative zone or even UN.

Regardless.  Ukraine win or lose is gonna lose big.

Bonus from the same article...

Among the most stunning bits of information that have recently surfaced, reports in Poland say that around 1,200 Polish “volunteers” have been killed in Ukraine. These appear to have been drawn from Poland’s active land army, which consists of three main divisions. 

Poland is hip deep in this fight and they will take their piece of the prize once the fighting is done. 

Geez. They're back on this bullshit.

Not again… pic.twitter.com/jfhDYxCDur

— Mesh🇧🇧 (@rahsh33m) May 9, 2023

Elbit's UT50 Turret looks like a BEAST!

Down in Charleston, SC covering @ElbitSystemsUS ribbon cutting for new Ground Combat Vehicle Center of Excellence and here’s their new UT50 turret, part of BAE Systems’ offering for the Army’s Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle (OMFV) competition pic.twitter.com/rmpmxwSF8r

— Matt Beinart (@MBeinart22) May 8, 2023

Does a 50mm round mean that we can move away from tanks in the direct fire/infantry support role? If it means we can and if we accept the price of using missiles against tanks as the new standard instead of tanks vs tanks then what is the rationale for tanks? Of course that's silly but many will push it. What we need to do but no one seems to be addressing it is that combined arms needs to be "tightened up" and possibly upgraded for the new century. The foundation is solid but certain issues have been exposed (anti-air) that need to be reinforced/expanded.

Open Comment Post. 9 May 23

Does the Marines new modernization plan go too far? One of its former commandants thinks so

Does the Marines new modernization plan go too far? One of its former commandants thinks so | Federal News Network https://t.co/fjZNgApG8N via @FederalNewsNet

— Solomon (@SnafuBlogspot) May 9, 2023

3rd Recon Marines Teaches VBSS Tactics to BLT 2/1

3rd Recon Recruiting Video

 

Chart showing recession probabilities worldwide in 2023

 Thanks to Panthera Pardus for the pic!

If we were using old/legacy standards of what constitutes a recession then the US would already be in one.

I think the same applies to the UK and most of Europe (war has a price and is inflationary besides the bloodshed).

What I find amazing is that Russia has a lower chance of recession than many countries that are boycotting it.

Ain't that a kick in the pants!

What should grab everyone's attention is the sleeping mega giant that is about to swoop in and crush us all.

KEEP AN EYE ON INDIA!

In the US everyone is in awe of the Japanese or Chinese but Indian Americans are killing it as a group.

All those doctors and engineers (might be stereotyping but have you noticed that the one school we offer that isn't high up the list that many foreign students fight to get into isn't law school?) could be lured back home to a prosperous and rising India.

Also note the small print.  70% of Indian Americans have bachelors degrees.  Not the bullshit journalism or culinary arts but hard sciences!

Sleep on India if you want to but you'd be making a mistake.

Early prediction too (call it a bonus).

India and Pakistan will have a limited nuclear exchange within the next 10-20 years.  Why?  Because Pakistan will understand that they can't keep pace so they'll want to blunt India's rise.  It won't work and the world will be alarmed but it will cause the collapse of the Pakistan govt and forces will rush to keep those nukes from falling into the wrong hands (probably a joint international effort---SOCOM Olympics indeed!).

It really shook confidence in his professional military judgement

 via CenterForSecurityPolicy.org

One retired Marine put it thus:

Gen. Berger’s testimony for 30 of those Light Amphibious Warships at $300 million [USD] per copy — which were to flit among the islands but withdraw from the [area of operations] in the event of armed conflict — really shook confidence in his professional military judgment. [In the Department of Navy as well as Congress.]

In the waning days of his office, for him to now claim, “What I meant to say was I really really need those full-up 31 Amphib big decks….” just doesn’t resonate.  

Here 

I'm just wrapping my brain around how big this amphibious shipping crisis is.

The next Commandant will have to do more than walk and chew bubble gum.

The minute he hits office he's gonna have to fight to fix the ARG/MEU.

If he's a Berger acolyte then he's gonna have to work to finish his vision while at the same time defending the need for at least 31 big decks.

Oh and he's gonna have to work to repair the rift in the Marine Corps family over how Berger pursued his vision. 

Don't care whether you like Force Design 2030 or not (I don't). One thing is undeniable. 

The United States Marine Corps is in worse shape now than when Berger took over as Commandant.

His legacy will be one of failure.

Japanese massacre Chinese at Changjiao

 via WWII Today

The Rape of Nanking, when as many as 250,000 unarmed Chinese were massacred in 1937, is relatively well known in the West. Less well-known and even less well-understood are other atrocities against the Chinese civilian population during the Japanese occupation of China. Between the 5th and the 12th May there was a massacre of Chinese civilians at Changjiao, regarded as the second worst in the whole war:

The Changjiao Massacre was directed towards Chinese civilians. It was started by the Japanese China Expeditionary Army. The tragedy occured in Chingjiao, Hunan. The leader was Shunroku Hata. The Changjiao Massacre went on for four days, and 30,000 civilians were killed.

I personally severed more than forty heads. Today, I no longer remember each of them well. It might sound extreme, but I can almost say that if more than two weeks went by without my taking a head, I didn't feel right. Physically, I needed to be refreshed.

Story here

If you've ever wondered why every attempt at a "NATO in the Far East" has failed and will never work then look to WWII.