via Proceedings
Between the 1980s and ᾿90s, much of the fighter/air wing antiair warfare training focused on fighting the “outer-air” battle against a Soviet Union threat. The strategy was to have F-14 Tomcats armed with Phoenix and Sparrow missiles sitting on the threat’s weapon release line, thus forcing enemy units to fight through our F-14s to reach a launch point—i.e., “It’s easier to shoot the archer than his arrows.” This meant keeping long-range fighters armed with long-range missiles fueled and on station for relatively long periods.Here.
Toward this objective, vector logic and chainsaw tactics were developed to optimize employment of U.S. air-to-air missiles, superior in both range and lethality. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the long-range threat (along with tactical interest in the outer-air battle) to the carrier battle group all but disappeared.
Today, the People’s Republic of China, with bombers escorted by long-range fighters armed with long-range missiles, and with its antiship missiles, poses as great a threat to the carrier strike group as the Soviet Backfire/Blackjack long-range bomber force did in the 1980s. But because of the requirement to support the war efforts in the Middle East and Afghanistan for the past 19 years, U.S. fighter aviation has failed to keep pace with the development of a long-range air-to-air missile to counter China.
Another affirmation of the "payloads over platforms" matra. The problem? We've heard that song sung by CNO's since 2000 but they got mired in the F-35 debacle and surrendered any hope of actually keeping pace with the threat.
Has anyone looked at the order of battle for the Pacific?
Have you looked at the deployment "routine" of the US Navy? Looked at our bases in that theater?
We're fucked.
The sad truth is this.
China has regional superiority. If you include maintenance cycles, troop/aircraft rotations etc...then we're not really in the ball game. It would take the combined efforts of the US, Japan and Australia to even make it a battle.
As things stand now I seriously doubt that we would be able to even contest an invasion of Taiwan.
Think of different scenarios in your head. How do we defeat time and distance? The only way we could possibly prevent an invasion is to place Taiwan under our nuclear umbrella and I don't think that will happen.
In other words Taiwan is a done deal.
So why are the Chinese waiting? Economics. Once they have carved out trade partners that are outside of our influence or they become self sufficient because of their various alliances (in this I'm thinking that Europe will be neutral with Russia not getting involved but keeping a wary eye on the Chinese) they'll strike.
2030?
Sounds about right.
