MQ-8C Fire Scout unmanned helicopter

The MQ-8C Fire Scout unmanned helicopter sits on the flight line at Naval Base Ventura County Point Mugu, Calif., prior to conducting the first engine runs of the system on Sept. 20. A Northrop Grumman and U.S. Navy test team is collecting data to ensure that all of the aircraft's systems are functioning and communicating properly prior to its first flight. (Photo by Chad Slattery)

AEI's Thomas Donelly wants to disband MARSOC, cut Special Forces by 1/3, cut 1 SEAL Team...

CSBA Strategic Choices Exercise Outbrief Video Part 2: AEI's Thomas Donnelly from CSBA on Vimeo.

Please take the time to listen to Donelly's brief on his suggestions for the military if sequester continues as is.

Its stunning.  Eye opening and worrying.

The briefing slides are below and I recommend you open the video in Vimeo and then follow along with his slides.  The highlights...

*USN is reduced in size and modernized.  Cuts proposed are to get rid of 2 carriers, all cruisers etc...the F-35C amazingly is retained!  Additionally he recommends keeping the LCS!
*USMC is reduced in size and modernized.  End strength would fall to 135,000!  Let me say that again.  Instead of 202,000 Marines, he proposes to cut it to 135,000.  Additionally he recommends SPEEDING UP F-35 procurement.  I'm shaking my head in amazement and wondering if he's a consultant for Lockheed Martin.
*US Army retains its current size but IS NOT modernized.  You like those Strykers and Bradleys?  I hope so cause they're gonna be your ride for the next 20 years.
*SOCOM gets raped in this plan.  MARSOC is disbanded under all scenarios.  Special Forces is cut by 1/3.  Navy SEALs lose a team.  The manhunt mission is ended and training of foreign forces emphasized.  Additionally he cuts Predator orbits by 2/3rds.

But wait for it.  You won't believe this shit.

*USAF.  Enlarged.  Modernized.  F-35 production is speeded up.  Allies airplanes are sped up in production and I'm not sure and I'll correct this if I'm wrong but I got the impression that we would give/subsidize the buy.  Again I'm not sure but the Air Force makes out like a bandit.

Additionally the world is divided.

The USAF and US Army would get the Middle East.  The USN and US Marines would get the Pacific.  One caveat.  No carriers would be assigned to patrols in the Arabian Gulf.  Check out the slides below and listen to his presentation.

  2-AEI

Sidenote:  Robert Work's presentation was surprisingly bland.  He is obviously a Rumsfeld acolyte and believes that a small, high tech force will be able to win against numerically superior NEAR PEER adversaries.  Go listen to his speech for yourself but I remain unconvinced and a non-believer.  The HOPE that push button warfare has arrived is a pipe dream in my opinion and I expected more from him.  One thing that I did like is that his proposal was to NOT cut the active Marine Corps at all.  No loss of amphibious ships, and the Marine Corps would revert to its traditional role of a force in readiness.

Note 1:  Four Think Tanks participated in this exercise.  Members are coming out with a joint statement on Monday in which agreed upon recommendations are forwarded to Congress.  I'll be looking for it.  The executive summary should be thrilling.

F-35 setback. S. Korea to buy F-15SE

via Yonhapnews.

SEOUL, Sept. 23 (Yonhap) -- U.S. aerospace giant Boeing is moving closer to win South Korea's 8.3 trillion won (US$7.2 billion) contract as the state procurement agency is set to recommend F-15 Silent Eagle as the sole candidate that comes within the budget in an upcoming meeting of top military officials.
The Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) has completed biddings and evaluations on three jets -- Boeing's F-15 SE, Lockheed Martin's F-35 and the EADS' Eurofighter -- and briefed President Park Geun-hye on the results earlier this month.
The DAPA said Monday it will hold a subcommittee meeting later in the day to review the evaluation process and make a final decision on Tuesday in a meeting presided by Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin, without elaborating which jet scored the highest.
"The meeting will yield a final decision on the fighter jet project," DAPA spokesman Baek Yoon-hyung said in a briefing. "There will be no expansion in the program budget at this point."
The DAPA meeting is authorized to deliberate only on whether to accept or reject the recommended candidate, without any say on choosing another candidate or expanding the budget.
If confirmed, Boeing will provide 60 F-15 SEs between 2017 and 2021 to operate alongside 60 F-15Ks, which have been adopted since 2002, effectively replacing the South Korean Air Force's aging fleet of F-4s and F-5s.

Done deal.

Scratch 60 F-35's from the order books.

The death spiral picks up steam. 

Squad Tactic Terrorism. Coming to a shopping mall near you.

Kenyan Soldiers preparing to assault the terrorist in a Kenyan mall.  Note that they are armed with SCAR assault rifles with EO Tech optics.  No doubt courtesy of a US Army Special Forces A-Team that I've read is operating in country.  Heck, they probably have advisers on the scene providing advise on how best to assault the bad guys.

We've seen it in India.

We're seeing it in Kenya.

Sooner or later we're going to see a major incident here in the US.  What should be troubling isn't the fact that we're setting ourselves up for another pressure cooker bomber, or even a car bomber.

What should keep the bubbas up in the FBI HRT Ready Room is the fact that for the second time we're seeing terrorist use rudimentary squad tactics in an assault against civilians.

What does this mean for the US?

In my opinion, we'll see this but on steroids.  In Kenya they assaulted the mall with real assault weapons.  They reportedly moved in teams and threw grenades into the crowds.  Additionally they picked their time well.  A childrens day at the mall.  A mall frequented by foreigners.  In particular Brits and Canadians.

We're past car bombs, pressure cooker bombs or beltway snipers.  We're headed toward real deal, Iraq war type combat in a public event near you.

The only real question is how many people they're going to send to do the deed.  I've always thought in terms of ten to maybe twenty people.  But here's a what if for ya.  What if they aim higher.  What if they launch a platoon sized attack with upwards of around 40 to 60 people?  If they've trained hard, have experience in Afghanistan or Iraq or Syria.  If they're well equipped then even the combined might of FBI Hostage Rescue Team and US Marshals Special Operations Group would be hard pressed to beat them.  Such an incident would probably require SOCOM to support the response with the deployment of Delta and SEAL Team 6 along with someone to provide perimeter security.

Even worse for us all is if this does come to pass this will shock the nation in a way that even 9/11 didn't.  Such an attack would send us down the path of being a velvet gloved police state.  I hope those boys in the NSA are doing more than monitoring what porn sites I visit.

F-35. A rebuttal from a Royal Navy veteran.

Many thanks to Tim for his note.  

I disagree with him wholeheartedly but this is a view from across the pond...

Sol,
Though I admire your change of direction, and indeed a niggle in my stomach tells me you could be right, I have to outline a couple of things that make this a project that stands above the rest that you are talking about. If find it very difficult to collate thoughts on such a huge subject, as it encompasses the whole defence project issue….
Bear with my rambles and see it from a guy who served in RN for many years, and now has son on “Bombers” in RN
Cost.
Cost is now more analysed than ever before in any airframe. But the arguments to continue usually outweigh the cancellation. We only need to look so far as the initial “Fly off” between Boeing and Lockheed to see that the cheaper option of Boeing with the Harrier technology engine sucked in hot air and was unable to land reliably in a vertical manner.
Therefore the issue we would see is that to go back to the drawing board would only cost more, and put us back in the “Unknown”.
Specification.
The airsystem Lockheed are delivering does exceed specification in many areas and fail or meet revised specification in others. It never was going to be able to do what the Sukhoi and Pak do in manoeuvre. But it would have a more modern databus and capability in electronics. This we are all reliably informed will give us the system we need. This is possibly the most contentious issue. Will the F35 do what they are asking of it, or is the expectation set to high. The only area I find disturbing is the removal of the A10. No airsystem in my opinion can replace the A10 in the role it performs. But A10 are old, and the airframes are getting stressed and I guess now dangerously in need of replacement. At what cost…. (Back to that argument)
Alliance.
This is the real jewel in the crown that the F35 presents. F35 if it is able to do what they say it can do, will give all allies that sign up to it a shared capability. It means the logistics and abilities are known to each ally. Maintenance issues, commonality of spares etc etc make this airsystem easier to support. Allies will be able to cross deck (Whether F35A to airfields) or F35B to ships. The capability of a British carrier will be enormous, when we have USMC F35B and Japanese, Italian also. No nation can go it alone, and alliance is what the world WILL be built on in the future. That has to be good for UK and especially good for the US who has shouldered responsibility of policing the world for to long. F35 brings forwards a better standard of airforce. More nations will participate in “Red Flag” type exercises, with shared purpose and experience of the air system.
Decisions Made.
This is a contentious comment, but we “reap what we sow”.
For good or bad the 3 forces of US and RAF/RN agreed to a single airsystem. Compromise was made on the whole product. USMC and RN / RAF stipulated a single engine design. US Navy wanted a twin engine, but settled for the single engine. USMC/USAF and RN/RAF can not just leave the project as they “Forced it” on the USN. The costs are totally lost, yet we have an airsystem that is flying and testing successfully.
Way forwards.
Perhaps the way forwards is actually to step up production. To call Lockheed/BAE/Pratt and Whitney. TO watch the price come down. TO be able to plan for a cheaper airsystem and then call foul if they do not meet targets. I do not believe based on watching of Typhoon, F14, F15, F22, PAK, even Airbus and Boeing that a new airsystem can be built to cutting edge without delays and cost overruns.
In summary I think we have to step up production to make the airsystem cheaper and more viable as an exported airsystem. We need to keep a hold on costs, but realise that the costs that are thrown around on the Internet are costs that will be incurred regardless of the system that is flying. So in comparison with the most numerous of airsystem (F16) the F35 will be more capable and cheaper. No reskins required and life extensions and re-engine.
We also need to review the requirements for Large Carrier capability. Just looking at the cost of the Ford class makes the eyes water. Finally an acceptance of slightly less for more quantity would also be wise decision on the next weapon system design. I am not convinced our Western desire for technology is best for us.
Regards

I won't parse and refute each of his points.  We've done that to death.  I'll simply say I think you're wrong Tim.  We've spent enough.  My country can't afford this plane.  Your's can't and neither can our allies.

Defense Watch indicates that the death spiral is already here for the F-35.

via Defense Watch (a Canadian Defense oriented blog).

This is a reduction of 219 planned purchases, which brings the numbers down to 2,921 F-35s.
A drop in that number of aircraft results in a $525.6 increase to Canada for a potential acquisition. If we only now have a $342 million acquisition contingency, this means we are now over $9 billion.

Read it all here. 

"The reality is if you protect the F-35, you do so at the expense of other programs"

A few quotes from an article that is written about a City Council that is writing Senator Durbin on behalf of the F-35 program.  Note that they talk about the jobs that the program provides AND NOT the capabilities that the airplane brings.  Additionally note that we're seeing a weird group of individuals coming together to try and stop this program.  Various Congressman, Think Tanks, Bloggers (me included...but for my own reasons) and even Lobbyist (but they'll never match the numbers that LM bring to the table).  Read the whole story but the pertinent quotes follow....

"In the financial industry, we have this phrase, 'too big to fail,' and I'm wondering if this project is so large in scope that it was too big to cancel," Durbin said. "Have we reached a point when it comes to acquisitions in the future that we have to take this into consideration?"

&

"I think the uptick of activity that you see coming from (Lockheed Martin) is indicative of concern over the future of the program," said Miles, who started an online petition calling for the F-35's cancellation. "Everyone recognizes that the program as planned is unsustainable. There simply isn't $1.5 trillion to spend on a weapons system that doesn't work."

Its really clear for the Marine Corps.  Bill Sweetman said it a couple of years ago and I dismissed him out of hand.  To paraphrase...

You would have your EFV if you (meaning the Marine Corps) weren't buying a transport helicopter (the V-22) that costs as much as a fighter, a fighter that costs more than anything else thats ever been done (except the B-2)...we should have followed the Airbus model and standardize avionics between three different airframes...then you would have what you really want. 

The son of a bitch was right.  I hope I never run into him because I owe him a bottle of his favorite adult beverage and a 5 star dinner...hopefully he'll be so drunk and full that he forgets how right he was.

The Marine Corps is making bad choices and once again finds itself in a STUPID situation.  We're having to tailor our forces to fit equipment instead of buying equipment to fit our doctrine AND our forces. 

Read more here: http://www.bnd.com/2013/09/21/2810493/lobbyist-spurs-belleville-city.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.bnd.com/2013/09/21/2810493/lobbyist-spurs-belleville-city.html#storylink=cpy

French-Russian Wheeled IFV? via Robert.

Many thanks to Robert for the pics!

Not much on this vehicle, but Robert says that its a "reskinned VBCI" armed with a 57mm cannon(?)(!) and that its definitely NOT Boomerang.

You're looking at a formidable vehicle if this ever becomes more than a concept.  I'll be keeping an eye on this one.

Open Carry Crowd is wrong on so many levels.

The above video is sweeping the internet like wildfire.

It shows some young ladies open carrying in a mall.

Many are saying that the LEO was being rude and was power hungry.

They're wrong.

I'm not a big fan of Law Enforcement.  Most of the time when you need them they're not around and they are more revenue generators than law enforcers.  But this open carry movement is silly.

Why shouldn't an open carry person expect to have to provide ID to LEOs?  They should expect every time they go out in public.  They should welcome the stops.  They should be polite, and understand that the choice they made put them into the situation.

First.  Open carry is tactically STUPID!  Most of the people I see open carrying are doing so with Kydex Holsters.  They have at best a retention screw.  Many times they don't even have that.  Remember the 21 foot rule?  Well if you're out in public, shopping, buying coffee etc...then by the nature of public places you're allowing someone inside your 21 foot reaction circle!  Next.  Without a level 3 holster you're allowing yourself to be a weapon snatch victim.  Have you ever seen videos of California Prisoners practicing weapon take-aways in the courtyard?  I have.  An attack from one of those guys will be violent, swift and more than likely against an unaware person.  Most of these people in the vids have coffee, shopping bags etc.  Weapon retention with empty hands is hard enough without being on a shopping spree.

And last.  What happens if Gun Guys win this fight and open carry is allowed without confrontation by police?  What if we get to the point where open carriers are not having to provide ID so a background check can be run?  Then we'll have gang bangers and other criminals open carrying and the police not doing checks because they'll be labeled as racist!

Open carry is tactically stupid, will lead to unintended consequences and doesn't provide the safeguards that concealed carry permits provide to the public that unauthorized persons aren't carrying weapons.

Its time for GUN PEOPLE to get smart and think about the consequences of their actions.

J-15 operating off from the Chinese CV-16 Aircraft Carrier via Chinese Military Review.

How about a massive what if.

What if the Russians are simply designing a carrier for the Chinese much like they designed an attack helicopter for them?

Then consider the many Chinese shipyards that are looking for work.  Then add in the fact that within 5 years (if things remain as they are) the US military will be at its lowest point in 50 years.

That all adds up to the Chinese making a serious push in the Pacific within a decade or two, with the US being unable to do more than protest in the UN.

Developments like this should give US planner pause.

Blast from the past. Japanese Type 5 To-Ku amphibious tank

Its amazing how certain memes get started and despite all evidence to the contrary, become instilled.  One of those memes from WW2 is that the Japanese were without armor during their conquest of large parts of the Pacific.

The Type 5 was not only adequately armored to deal with enemy infantry but was also quite capable against the majority of armored vehicles found in the region to include the US' Stuart Tank.  To top it all off, it was truly amphibious.

Why is this important?  Its to illustrate that the Japanese have historically been leaders in amphibious vehicles.  The desire to buy a few AAVs should be seen as only a stopgap measure.  I expect that even now, Japanese Manufacturers are already looking to provide their future Marines Corps with a fully tracked, highly mobile, fast swimming amphibious infantry fighting vehicle.

Simba APC stalled outside Presidential Palace causes anti-coup alert.

How bad are things in the Philippines?  When a Simba APC stalls in front of the Presidential Palace, the Guard Force goes on anti-coup alert.  via Inquirer News.

MANILA, Philippines — With President Aquino out of the capital for the past 12 days, an armored personnel carrier (APC) that lost its brakes and stalled near Malacañang was enough to send rumors flying that a coup d’état was under way.

The military “Simba” got stuck on Pureza Street, Manila, early on Friday, prompting the Presidential Security Group and the Manila police to send out teams to make sure it was not a prelude to a power grab while Mr. Aquino was preoccupied with the Zamboanga City hostage crisis.

Palace spokesperson Abigail Valte later explained it was “not unusual for them to go out and check (such) incidents. It was given a high profile (attention) because an APC was stranded … You can’t blame them. Out of prudence they do go out and check.”

It turned out that the APC was just passing through as part of a convoy carrying soldiers from the Northern Luzon Command in Tarlac province to Sangley Point, Cavite. And the only “threat” it posed was the traffic jam it caused. Michael Lim Ubac

Just wow.

I'm a fan of the Philippine people.  I think they hard working, wonderful and have been poorly served by their govt.  I also believe that China will seek to take advantage of this poor country to advance its agenda in the region.

But I also have to wonder if its wise to get fully entangled in their politics by stationing a large number of Marines and Soldiers there.

Its a mess and I don't think its gonna get better anytime soon.

AAV replacement woes?

The latest news on the AAV replacement is not encouraging.  It appears that the decision on the list of requirements for this vehicle will again be delayed.  Additionally, and I'm admittedly reading between the lines, but it seems that even the upgrade for the AAV is in jeopardy.  Make no mistake about it.  The F-35 has destroyed the Marine Corps budget to such a degree that Marines will be riding into combat in a 50 year old vehicle with inadequate armor, firepower, communication and imaging gear.  The F-35 for the USMC has turned into a threat to the institutions very existence.  Read the entire article from Defense News but a few tidbits...

“I’m only going to get one bite at this apple — I don’t want to mess this up,” Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Jim Amos told reporters in June in a direct nod to the limited patience that Congress and Pentagon budget makers now have for programs that eat up too much time and money. (This is laughable considering the mess that is the F-35 program.)
Under current, pre-sequester plans, the Marines say they want the ACV to enter service between fiscal 2020 and 2022, with the Corps acquiring 573 of the amtracs. Since trade studies are ongoing, no cost estimates are available either from the Corps or industry, sources contacted for this story said.
The Marine Corps did not respond to requests for comment.
The caution that the Corps’ leadership is practicing with this program can be seen not only in the extended trade studies but also in the fact that the request for proposal widely expected to be released last fall doesn't appear to be coming any time soon, given that the latest trade study still has months to go.

Its really simple though.

The Marine Corps has prioritized an airplane over providing armored protection to its ground forces. 

Future Russian Carrier illustration via War Machine.

Parking Nazi via BlackFive.

How much of an asshole do you have to be to ticket a US Army Helicopter that is providing support/rescue services to your state?

Update on the VERY bad day paratrooper via Kyle.

Thanks to Kyle for finding this vid.  Just wow.  This guy is lucky to be alive.  

BAE at the Maneuver Conference

The US Army had their Maneuver Conference at Ft. Benning a couple of weeks ago.  I've been looking high and low for reports about the various displays but its been almost non-existent.  Even the major manufacturers aren't putting out press releases on their participation there. Maybe its a issue with how they want to present themselves to the public but the only place that seemed to have any info on it was...wait for it...World of Tanks Blog, THE CHIEFTAIN'S HATCH.  The pics below are from that blog.

Sidenote:  What made the Army decide to move Tanks down to Ft. Benning instead of keeping them at Ft. Knox?  Hell, Soldiers would hate it but Ft. Irwin would have made more sense.

Sidenote 1:  I wonder what the bill to BAE is to move all that armor to these exhibitions?  Its got to be a small fortune.

Like the Chieftain's Hatch Blog said, there is alot going on with the turret of that Bradley!  I'd love a rundown of exactly what they have on it.

Amos finally reveals his true motives.

via Defense One.

In his Sept. 16 commentary in Defense One, Gen. James Amos, commandant of the Marine Corps, makes the argument that the Corps would be right-sized at around 174,000 personnel. This comes not long after his office made the argument that a Marine Corps sized at 186,800 Marines was deemed fiscally impossible. I believe that the reason that the Marine Corps is having a difficult time finding the right size is that it remains tethered to the legacy formations of the past. It is possible for the Marine Corps to provide its vital services to the nation for between 120,000 and 150,000 Marines if it embraces a new approach to the future.

Read the entire article.

The talk of building around the MEU is fine.  The talk of focusing on the MEB is misguided.  The MEB is least used formation in the Marine Corps.  MEF's and MEU's have been at the vanguard of the Marine Corps since at least Vietnam (in their current configuration), but what is really disturbing is the adoption of Amos' flawed SPMAGTF's as examples of where we go in the future.

Even more disturbing is the continued focus in HQMC with terrorism/COIN type warfare despite indications from the Vice Chairman that the other members don't share that view.

This proposal to reform the Marine Corps with 150,000 Marines would essentially mean shedding even more Infantry Battalions, seeing Tanks and Artillery Battalions go away and to rely entirely on the Wing.

That can't be allowed.  The only good that came from this article is that it reveals Amos' true motives.  He wants to make the Marine Corps an ocean going 101st that can get their quick but can't hold its own against a true combined arms force.

Meeting Engagement at Senkaku/Diaoyu islands....

via The Diplomat.

For now, though, the upper hand is held by the United States, which has just completed the initial deployment of 24 U.S. Marine Corps Bell-Boeing MV-22B Osprey conventional, or twin tilt rotor aircraft, to Futenma Base in Okinawa. This unique aircraft, by virtue of its twisting rotors and engines at the ends of its wing, can take off like a helicopter, and then cruise at about 280 miles per hour, carrying up to 24 troops or about six tons of cargo to a range sufficient to reach the disputed islands. In a full-out surge, the 24 MV-22Bs at Futenma could potentially put about 500 troops or about 140 tons of weapons and material on the Senkakus or the Sakashimas in about one hour.

and this...

The first example, delivered in May, is now undergoing final modifications in Shanghai. At least three more are expected initially, but China may build many more of an indigenous version. Developed by the former Soviet Union to give its Naval Infantry the ability to rapidly invade NATO countries along the Baltic Sea, the Zubr can lift about 500 troops or up to 150 tons of armor, weapons and material up to speeds of 66 miles per hour. With just four Zubr hovercraft, the PLAN could potentially put 2,000 troops or up to 600 tons of weapons and material on the Senkakus in about four to five hours, or it could reach the island of Miyako-jima in about six to seven hours with a much reduced payload.
If it actually came to a race between the Osprey and the Bison, getting there first would make all the difference, as without the advantage of surprise, an adequately armed defender could significantly damage incoming hovercraft or helicopters. But the outcome would also depend on the result of intensive air and sea battles around these islands. For now, the superior performance of the U.S. Lockheed-Martin F-22A fifth-generation fighter and the Virginia class nuclear-powered attack submarine provide a margin of superiority that undergirds deterrence, but this could change quickly as the PLA Air Force increases the number of capable fourth-generation fighters supported by AWACS radar aircraft, followed by fifth-generation fighters that could even the odds, especially if China decides to strike first. Growing numbers of PLAN air defense destroyers like the new Type 052D could also help deny air dominance to Japanese and U.S. forces.

Read the entire article but we're seeing a widely read thought website, essentially laying out the possible moves in a meeting engagement over some disputed islands in the Pacific.

Things are warming up and instead of being reassured I'm a bit alarmed.

We are heading into a period where our forces will be at their weakest point in 50 years, China is approaching the apex of its own strength (if reports of slow downs in Chinese manufacturing are to be believed) and only now are people taking the threat seriously.

I wonder if historians will say too little too late when studying the reaction of US leaders to a rising Red Dragon.

Paratrooper having a VERY bad day via TacBlog.

Dang.  I'm guessing this must be a jump out of a balloon or something (I think the Brits were doing that kinda stuff at one time).  If it was an airplane he'd be toast.