SNAFU!

Sunday, February 27, 2022

Sunday quick hit. Russia could win if they go all out, but even that victory will now be tarnished.

I don't know what Russian Battalion Tactical Group Commanders are thinking.

Seems like the whole lot (well alot of them anyway) should be fired on the spot.

The performance of Russian soldiers?

Not up to what I expected. To say its been astonishingly bad is an understatement. To surrender to farmers? Beat cops? To have Special Ops Forces captured seemingly without firing a shot?

Never in my life expected such a thing.

After quite impressive performances in Syria, some country I forgot the name of, and the earlier fight in Ukraine where I read stories of Ukrainians having to E&E back to their lines dogging sentries, UAV and artillery fire...how armor was getting pulverized and resupply efforts were harassed all led me to believe that this would be accomplished in a week with an undetermined period to follow (the promise by Putin to not occupy the country left me wondering what the transition to withdrawing forces would look like).

But make no mistake.

If Russia gets its military leaders focused on goals then I still believe they can win this. Easily too. They're gonna break the hell outta the country. Most major cities will be piles of rubble. But a civilian population in a modern country can be broken. Their will can be crushed. Why? Because modern societies aren't built to endure adversity. Once the cameras leave and you're left with doing the day to day stuff just for survival --- along with fighting at night, you're talking about major league work.

Even if they go all out and win the fight, the victory will be tarnished.

Many will look at this win and remember the blunders. Russian military prowess will take a bigger hit than the bungled evacuation from Afghanistan (which the Pentagon gently pushed back on the White House and blamed them for some of the friction we saw on the ground).

Supposedly Russian forces are active in Syria now. They need the win and they need to perform well or Russia will be seen as a paper tiger.

NATO isn't sparkling either. The only country that will come out with a passing grade outta this thing will be China.

Why China? They win because they chose not to play.

Confirmed. It's not about the sanctions but the supply of weapons that has Russia putting forces on nuclear alert

Putin: "Western countries aren't only taking unfriendly economic actions against our country, but leaders of major Nato countries are making aggressive statements about our country. So I order to move Russia's deterrence forces to a special regime of duty." pic.twitter.com/AC1yHncqZc
— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 27, 2022

Sidenote. NATO placed its forces on very high alert (something like that) a couple of days ago. How could Russia not see that as provocative? The US rushes soldiers (admittedly light infantry) to the borders of Russia and its not seen as provocative? I so hate the "we have to do something" thinking that is pushed by those that emote when sometimes (unless intel indicates differently) the best thing you can do is watch and suss out enemy intentions.

If BTGs are so limited in the attack & defense then how will Company Landing Teams perform?

I'm looking at how unwieldy BTGs are and it makes me wonder how the dispersed, independent CLTs will perform.

The Russians are infuriating!

They practically had the West jumping thru hoops during their last foray into Ukraine and everyone talked about how war had been revolutionized by long range missile fire and UAVs.

This time?

They're the gang that can't shoot straight. I keep thinking that it must be a desire to be as gentle as possible with their Ukrainian brothers but at this point gloves should have been off 2 days ago.

Are they just holding back or have they really been this degraded?

Now they want to exercise moderation...

With Russian nuclear forces placed on alert, war has reached a new, dangerous phase. Up to now we have focused on the risks of Putin prevailing; now we must also face the risks of Putin failing. Escalation-broad use of cyber, attack on NATO, even nuclear use-cannot be ruled out.
— Richard N. Haass (@RichardHaass) February 27, 2022

Fuck me sideways. I CANNOT stand these so called "brains". This new dangerous phase was easily predicated when you had NATO rushing weapons to Ukraine in the middle of this fight.

Russia put its nuclear forces on high alert

Well we are pumping weapons into Ukraine like crazy. Blowback, unintended consequences were bound to happen.

When you operate off the feelings of the mob instead of with cool reason this happens.

Oh and make no mistake the mob I'm talking about is the mob of the elite that emote rather than think.

Just read this thing Noble recommended. Russia's military is FAR from what I thought it was?

1/I am going to try to explain the irrational Russian Armed Forces behavior towards strategy, common thought, or even the chances repatriated SSO that are now POW try to murder a bunch of men with stars.
— Stanimir Dobrev (@delfoo) February 26, 2022

I don't know up from down right now.

Before this thing kicked off I had a high opinion of the performance of the Russian military (going off Syria...an intervention done smartly and later in whatever that country was).

After this Ukraine thing?

Well follow this dude and read the whole thing here (easier than Twitter).

It's pretty damning.

1-3rd Attack Battalion, 12th Combat Aviation Brigade, arrives at Lielvarde Military Airfield, Latvia

The Bravado.

Zelensky, a freaking comedian, just wrote his way into history...

The trajectory of this dude has been mind blowing.

First he goes around saying that talk of a Russian invasion isn't helpful/that he doesn't believe it. He gets his whole country to buy into that talk and no one is ready when the tanks start rolling in.

Next. While the tanks are rolling in the dude looks like he's in utter shock. Like the situation was beyond anything he could imagine. To be frank he looked like he was on the verge of a mental breakdown.

Now? Now he grabs a helmet and flak jacket, tells the West he doesn't need evacuation he needs weapons and he's drinking coffee with his troops.

Zelensky. Yeah. That's leadership I haven't seen from a politician.

He's an internet sensation for a reason.

Win, lose or draw he's written into history now.

Saturday, February 26, 2022

This comment sums it up. Our forward deployed forces around the world conducting "operations" will see the Russian version of ATGM and MANPADS showing up soon.

I've been reading comments and it amazes me how people can climb aboard "popular opinion" without considering the ramifications of it.

Expect prices to not only rise but to skyrocket. You're gonna be deciding between filling your tank or getting that burger.

The economic catastrophe that is about befall all of us because of the rush to sanctions and other measures will soon be felt and the misery for all will soon be apparent.

But my desire for us to stay out of it went out the window. NATO is supply weapons to Ukraine. The Russians will retaliate on the military side by passing out ATGMs and MANPADS like crazy.

This comment pretty much covers it.

Grey Forest
replied in SNAFU!
I am wondering where in the world where western forces are fighting i.e. Africa/Middle East/etc that might start having Russian MANPADs and ATGM start appearing with insurgents in retaliation for the weapons being sent to Ukraine?

It remains to be seen if Russia will seek, and the allies will allow them back into the global marketplace after this war.

If they don't and depending on how "bloody" this thing turns and how much pain the Russian people are feeling we could see like weapons turning up in groups we don't want.

We're setting the stage for cyber attacks against our infrastructure and banking systems.

This thing is setting the stage to spiral out of control and for unforeseen consequences to rule the day.

You heard it here first.

Ukraine is posting POW videos???

Mom, Dad, I'm PoW in Kharkiv, I didn't found any fascist here, I didn't want to come here.
99/ pic.twitter.com/twMbVdqzlI
— 𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝔇𝔢𝔞𝔡 𝔇𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔯𝔦𝔠𝔱 (@TheDeadDistrict) February 26, 2022

FUCKING DISGUSTING. THIS WAS THE FIRST PUBLIC RELATIONS MISTAKE UKRAINE MADE.

Lowest priority units leading the assault?

I lost Rob's tweet (gonna find it but this needs to go up) but he says that the units leading the assault on Ukraine are the lowest priority units.

He also says that the Ukrainians are up against old gear. None of the MBTs they're facing are the latest models. MANY of them date back to the mid 80's!

It's almost like Putin is conducting a purge of his most unreliable units....like he's tossing cannon fodder at them.

Does this mean that we're gonna see crack units soon?

Does this mean that we're soon to see more capable and aggressive troops along with a battleplan that takes into account Russia's full range of military capabilities?

I'm not sure.

What I do know is this removal of Russia from SWIFT is a mistake.

With the overuse of sanctions you're seeing countries move stuff around avoiding them and still getting the desired goods.

This move with SWIFT will just result in an alternate form being developed to take its place.

It's almost like we're trying to create competitors to every world wide institution we have a bit of control of and serves our needs as the fiat currency of the world.

I'm seeing some of these moves as setting the stage for China to rise even more quickly than it would have otherwise...stronger too.

Mark my words.

This isn't close to WW3. BUT IT IS setting the stage for major peer vs peer combat in the not too distant future.

Not much to say about Ukraine. I don't understand what the Russians are doing.

I've been watching this Ukraine thing after getting out of Honor Guard practice and man...I just don't get it.

From my chair it still looks like a half hearted Russian effort. It's either that or I SERIOUSLY overestimated Russian fighting power.

Additionally I keep seeing Russian aircraft taking hit after hit after hit.

Quite honestly the only play that makes sense is that they're seeking to save the cities and infrastructure and MAYBE they're seeking to destroy the Army.

Problem?

The Ukrainians are doing a "fight for survival" thing and every man has been mobilized for the fight.

By not doing this with quickness (and I quibble with that because most major cities are seeing fighting in the outskirts, most importantly Kyiv) they are building in an insurgency from hell.

One other thing has me surprised.

I really thought Russian Special Ops was good. They're being captured by freaking border guards. SURRENDERING to border guards.

When this is all done I don't even know if this thing will even be worth studying. It's totally out of bounds of ANY TYPE of modern warfare that I've seen written about.

Putin's armed forces are acting off a weird script.

The longer this goes on the more emboldened the Ukrainians will become and the bloodier this will get.

Kinda curious about one other thing. Where is their 1st Guards Tank force? That's another cracker jack unit that has underperformed.

Repeating myself but geez. I don't get it.

10 things (aside from gas) that will get more expensive during the Russian-Ukrainian war via Kim Komando

via KimK

While the invasion of Ukraine will affect the EU the most, Americans can also expect significant consequences to make their way very soon. For example, Russia is the number one exporter of wheat globally, and Ukraine is fifth.

Food? Check.

The chips placed inside computers have long faced a massive shortage that has caused a supply shortage of electronics. Everything from televisions to tablets has been impacted.
A major component of chips is a compound called Palladium, and you guessed it, Russia supplies a little less than half of the entire world’s supply. This means that the ability to manufacture more chips is greatly reduced the longer the conflict occurs and the more sanctions the U.S. places on Russia.

We're sanctioning chips? Russia produces shit that makes chips! Electronics shortage? Check.

In addition to a shortage of wheat, Russia supplies a large portion of the chemicals that create fertilizer, meaning crop production worldwide will be affected.
Then, of course, there’s the effect on natural resources, with Russia supplying a large portion of petroleum to the U.S. Some experts expect a rise in cost between 50 and 150% in the coming months. This means driving might quickly become one of your most significant monthly bills.

Wow. We went from oil exporter to back to importing the stuff? Bad times coming.

Go here to read the article in full but KimK is saying make certain purchases now (kinda curious...she's part of the media machine and I wonder if that advice is to prime the pump for more spending by consumers).