Thursday, March 17, 2022

The Biden Admin just pushed us into a two front war and killed the dollar at the same time...

 

 
Just plain wow.

Is anyone in Washington DC thinking or is emoting the new thing that I somehow missed?

The Chinese play a long game.  For the most part (emphasis on most...I'm sure there are issues that they'll act emotionally about) they have a plan and they're trying to execute it.

Meanwhile the Biden Admin spits in the wind and threatens China?

To what end?

They do it publicly and think that they can somehow "shame" the Chinese to bending to the will of the elite in Washington?

Not a freaking chance.

Instead we've just given them an opening.  My guess is that those moves we've heard (and the IMF has warned about) are about to become reality.

Using the Chinese Dollar as an alternate currency to the American Dollar?  You bet your ass.  Developing a system outside the preferred US/Western Europe cabal?  That's coming too.

All of the above was coming anyway so we should have been prepping for it.  But the Biden Admin has reached so far to punish Russia that its sped up the timetable.

Additionally we pushed so hard that we will see even more of a blending of Chinese and Russian tech.

That alone should make you pause.  Consider this.  The US and Europe has essentially kicked the Russians out of our space programs.

Want to bet money that we'll see the Chinese and Russia unite?  The canary in the coal mine that no one wants to consider?  What if Russia is able to drag the Indian govt along, work out a treaty of some type with the Chinese?

We'll stick with space and aviation programs.  The Russians, Chinese and Indians work together on space and aviation?

Suddenly we see a joint base on the moon between those countries, joint work on hypersonics, the brahmos missile on Chinese ships, Russia building up its nuclear arsenal to cold war levels because its worried about NATO, cooperation economically and just like that you have a new power alliance that can rival the US and Europe.

I'm gonna hit you with a stereotype.  Forgive me but sometimes they apply and in this case I think it does in spades.  Don't slap or humiliate a China-man unless you want a fight.

I don't know how to classify this mess but we're acting like we want the smoke.  We're acting like we want the fight NOW, not in the late 2030s or early 2040s.

I keep spinning on the efficacy of armored vehicles on the modern battlefield...meanwhile Berger is taking a victory lap.

 via SeaPower

 The success of Ukrainian forces in countering Russian armored vehicle columns with missiles and rockets in the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine shows the vulnerability of tanks to missile-armed infantry, the Marine Corps commandant said, and seemed to reinforce his decision to shed tanks from the Corps as part of his Force Design 2030 concept.    

During a live-streamed conversation with Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, Gen. David Berger said the Russian forces seemed to be ineffective in using a combined arms approach in that they were not using “maneuver to bolster your fires or using fires to set up your forces for maneuver. In both cases, one without the other … is very ineffective.” 

Berger also said Ukrainian forces seemed to be effective at causing confusion among Russian forces by stripping away Russian reconnaissance — which he said parenthetically that U.S. Marines “were very, very good at.”  

This is a two parter.  On one hand he is RIGHT and I admitted as much yesterday.  This war seems to validate his decision to remove tanks from the Marine Corps.

ON THE OTHER HAND he admits that the Russians aren't using a combined arms approach to their style of combat.  THAT IS ALSO SOMETHING THE US MARINES WERE WORLD LEADERS AT!!!!

So I remain conflicted on this issue.  He said a couple of other interesting things.

 Berger noted that amphibious operations are very complex and the Russian forces seemed to unnecessarily delay their limited amphibious operations. He said amphibious operations remain very much the core mission of the Corps.    

 “Amphibious landings, amphibious assault, forcible entry — things which Marines are known for for 70 years — we’ll continue to do but in a very different way,” Berger said. “Why? Because the character of war is changing. We need to change with it. 

Weird.  I don't see how this new Marine Corps will do anything besides amphibious landings (something the Army could do) with the force he's building.  Amphibious assault?  How?  Forcible entry?  Only if we're doing it in the same way the 101st would do it if they launched from Navy ships.

I believe he's playing fast and loose with this part.  We're gonna do it in a different way?  The force being built isn't capable of doing it in anyway!

 “So, in some cases, we’ve let go of things that were very successful in the past in order to move towards things that we are going to need in the future,” he said. “The aviation/ground/logistics team — that’s the strength of the Marine Corps having it all organic — we are an enabler for the joint force. We’re the first ones on the scene to figure it out. We need the mobility to do that, which means we need amphibious ships, which [are] critical for the nation to have. 

“You need to have the ability — I would say especially today in Ukraine — to have a crisis response force from the sea,” he said. “That means we need to have the number of amphibious ships necessary to global in the pacific or the Mediterranean. For the U.S., that’s 31 amphibious ships we have to have in order to do what the nation needs us to do.” 

This part irks.  He keeps looking to the past to justify a very fragmented future.  31 amphibious ships?  That's not to do amphibious landings or forcible entry.  That's to land missiles on an island, fire them at ships and run away before the Chinese can land a Battalion Landing Team to crush them.

At first glance the article might be encouraging but when you peel it back its the same old game.

They're trying to live on a Marine Corps past that they're working feverishly to kill.

Story here. 

Sidenote.  I'm gonna wait to see what the US Army says about this fight and the continuation of armored vehicles on the modern battlefield.  Infantry can hazard tanks with anti-tank missiles but steel rain can hazard the FUCK outta infantry.  UAVs can spot for artillery but a well placed anti-air network can knock them out of the air easily.  It's all related and one without the other is vulnerable.  Having said that I think the idea of unmanned ground vehicles has finally arrived.  The time to send a robot where you don't want to send a man (or a bullet to avoid detection) has arrived.

Next EABO is Marine Corps wide.  How would the EABO concept work in Ukraine?  How would the USMC provide a credible crisis response force?  With what?  A few anti-ship missiles, JLTVs and a few ACVs?  This is another part that irritates.  This is a one region, one foe force yet its being played up like its capable of performing all the functions that the old Corps did.  It won't.  With brushfire wars right around the corner the Marine Corps will be on the sidelines waiting for a call from a combatant commander that just won't come.  The best that can be hoped for is that they're attached to either the Army or the Air Force (individual parts, not as part of a MAGTF...not that it really exists anymore).  Not much use for the Navy in the Middle East or Africa...and that's where the next hits will be for the coming 2-5 years.

Belarus revolution?

https://twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1504200509481173006?t=-xa9xhSbw6dlP6napojaaw&s=09 Readers informed me of this event more to come I'm sure.

Wednesday, March 16, 2022

A lone Russian tank...the results are predictable...


I am deeply conflicted.

I don't know but supposedly Ukraine is good tank country.  Plains and forests.

But this war.  Forget the tactics.  I'm talking about the lethality of missiles.

Maybe Berger WAS ONTO SOMETHING.

How much heavier do tanks have to get before they're able to shrug off anti-tank missile hits?  I remember a bit ago when the US Army was looking at a replacement for the Bradley and everyone balked at the idea of it weighing as much as an Abrams.

I get it now.

The iron triangle is busted.  

Are we at the point where APS is absolutely essential for an armored vehicle to survive?

Tell ya something else.  The T-14 Armata makes nothing but sense now.  I UNDERSTAND why the Russians were going with a radically different, more heavily armed MBT.

The weird thing?

I can't help but look at this from the USMC's position.  The MAGTF (from smallest to biggest) seems like the ideal formation to survive this type of conflict (properly sized that is).

But we're told that the formation COULD NOT!  Was that propaganda so leadership could crawl back underneath the Navy's wing or the reality of the modern battlefield?

I won't get the answer from a USMC after action on this conflict. I need to see what the US Army says.  USAF too.  I haven't touched on it but from the social media coverage of this thing (and that's what this has been...new media has been using social media to report this story) it would seem that attack helicopters have hit an evolutionary roadblock too.

Of course that leads to the idea that if attack helicopters are dead then so are transport helicopters.

I'm not sure we can trust this conflict to give us answers but what little it can tell us will be fascinating.

Warrior Poet & James Yeager talk Ukrainian Foreign Legion (Yeager says he's going)

Exercise CRYSTAL ARROW confirmed @efpbglatvia

 

Late Open Comment Post. 16 Mar 2022

 


Pentagon Cuts Its Request for Lockheed’s F-35s by 35%

 via Bloomberg

The rationale for the reduction won’t be officially explained until the proposed Pentagon budget is made public. But the request comes as negotiations with Bethesda, Maryland-based Lockheed over the next F-35 contract -- for about 400 planes -- are going slower than anticipated. And F-35s remain hobbled by flawed execution of a crucial upgrade of their software and hardware capabilities that’s estimated to cost $14 billion.

-----

 The Air Force will request 33 F-35As instead of the 48 planned, the Navy will seek 13 of its version instead of 26 and the Marine Corps will request 15 rather than 20.

Here 

Something is wrong with America's foreign policy. Did you hear Zelensky's speech to the Congress?

 I've been monitoring Zelensky's speeches to various parliaments/congress and I've come to one conclusion.

Something is wrong with our foreign policy.

Zelensky was so polite and differential to the Brits and Canadians. He was humble and glowing with praise of all they've done.

Then he speaks to our congress.

Everything changes.

This dude is damn near demanding when he talks to our President, Congress and the American people.

From my chair it's maddening.  I don't get it.  We have given the most, practically endangered our own economy and he still wants more.

That is a problem. Don't believe me?  Check this out from CNN.

Zelensky had an impassioned message for President Joe Biden, saying, "You are the leader of your great nation. I wish you to be the leader of the world. Being the leader of the world means to be the leader of peace."

Hat in hand and he practically condemns Biden's leadership (and I'm no fan of the guy).  Then he goes on to tell him what HE needs him to be...while begging for help and this after he practically slammed Biden for warning him that an invasion was coming.

 In his address to Congress, the Ukrainian President expressed gratitude to Biden for aid the US has delivered so far, but he argued that more assistance is desperately needed. Zelensky specifically reiterated calls for the US to help enforce a no-fly zone in Ukraine to protect civilians and provide fighter aircraft that the Ukrainians can use to defend themselves, requests that have met with resistance.

Zelensky is still on that no fly zone kick.  The word "no" is a complete sentence but he still doesn't get it.  He kinda reminds me of con-men that keep pestering people until they wear down and say yes to whatever idiotic idea they're pushing.

The same applies here.

I don't care where you stand on this war.  When the after action is done on this we need to carefully assess what we can and can't do in support of allies (NATO and others) and what we will do to support "democracy" (whatever that means these days).

We obviously have created serious misconceptions about our ability to control events and it needs to be understood that just because you have bad guys in your backyard doesn't mean that we'll send troops to get you out of a pickle. 

Tuesday, March 15, 2022

Is Russia prepping for an amphibious assault on Odessa?

ACV Platoon Operations

Still haven't heard ANYONE state how the ACV fits into the Force Design 2030 (or LAR either). They're pushing ahead but I don't know if they even know how it will work with this new concept. Hell they're even converting an Artillery Regiment into a "Marine Littoral Regiment", so quite honestly I don't even see where Infantry fits into this thing. Its all artillery (cannon and missiles), air defense (manpads or VEHICLE mounted manpads) and ISR. ACV are offensive in nature. This new force is 100% defense battalions of WW2 (that didn't work then). The procurement of the vehicle with this concept just does not make sense.
U.S. Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Roger B. Turner, the 1st Marine Division commanding general, observes a platoon of amphibious combat vehicles (ACV) traveling from shore to the USS Anchorage (LPD-23) at Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California, March 12, 2022. The demonstration of proficiency in platoon-level operations marks the next step in certifying ACV crew members and their vehicles for worldwide deployment. 

Familiarization and concept development of manned-unmanned teaming (AH-1Z & MQ-8C)

Marine Light Attack Helicopter Squadron 269 (HMLA-269), 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing, conduct close air support prior to Exercise Cold Response 22 in Setermoen, Norway

US Special Forces prepare for Exercise Cold Response

 


The US Army Special Forces recently participated in a winter warfare course hosted by the Swedish Subarctic Warfare Centre.

Held in northern Sweden, the course introduced the Special Forces to the specific hardships of military operations in the European High North. The soldiers, who are assigned to 10th Special Forces Group, learned how to move, fight and be self-sufficient in an unforgiving environment. They will put those skills to the test during Cold Response 2022, a Norwegian-led exercise slated for March.

The US Army Special Forces - commonly referred to as Green Berets - are the United States’ premier unconventional warfare fighting force, focused specifically on working by, with and through partner forces using language skills and cultural savvy.

Footage includes shots of soldiers building a fire, manoeuvring on snowmobiles, and practising combat drills.

Late Open Comment. 15 Mar 2022

 

I didn't cover it but did you know that when the war in Ukraine first kicked off the Brazilian AF flew their brilliant new cargo airplane to rescue their citizens inside that country? Unsung, but well executed exercise by a good ally.  

And here she is in court.Marina Ovsyannikova, with human rights lawyer Anton Gashinsky! via Reddit

 1.  Reddit is like Twitter or TikTok.  You find what you're looking for. If you go to Twitter or TikTok for porn you'll find it.  Same with Reddit.  I once had the same bias before I put it aside and started looking at some of the sub-Reddit's that covered things of interest. You should do the same.

2.  I bet ya "whatever" this display by this newscaster was calculated and planned.  Additionally I bet you'll see her in either New York, Los Angeles, London, or your pic of Western European countries within a year.

3.  The response was also calculated.  A fine of 280 dollars? Not a big hit for what we've been told of the country that is Russia...not for her offense anyway. The story was defused before it could gain traction. Instead of a week long spectacle of worry for the brave journalist it'll be dead before we wake up Thurs.



Monday, March 14, 2022

This is what Russia supposedly asked China for with regard to military aid?

Interesting.

I'm surprised by the request for drones but maybe they're doing the "technological" leap thing and pushing for the loyal wingman to pair with the SU-57 while taking a bit of risk to get there.

Surface to Air Missiles?  Total shock on this one.  Gives a bit of credence to Ukrainian claims of capturing quite a few of them.

Armored vehicles?  This is borderline shocking.  The Chinese have embarked on their own versions of MBTs, IFVs, APCs, etc.  If they're going for the Chinese version of the JLTV then that would also kinda fall into that category.

I'm betting whoever is running some of those design bureaus in Russia are trying to find the deepest darkest hole possible to hide in.

Putin will soon enough get around to them and it won't end well.

First hand account of the attack on the Ukrainian Foreign Legion base...

 Thanks to Alexander Timokhin for the link!

via Reddit

Yeah man, I'll admit I was a little naive myself even having seen some combat previously. I did not expect to be attacked by jets while sleeping in a barracks room on a training base 10 miles from Poland

What makes a crater that deep? Some type of special missile to knock out underground command/control centers or such? Read the comments on this incident here.

Victims of the Indonesian Communist Genocide where an estimated 1 million people were killed by anti-communist forces. 1965 via Reddit

Comments here (well worth a read)

Ukrainian BTR-4 obliterating Russian BMP-1 with its 30mm gun. Gunner's perspective.