Friday, April 08, 2022

USS Tripoli and Marine Aircraft Group 13 demonstrate lightning carrier concept

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This isn't knock-on effects of Ukraine/Russia war...Just lingering covid in Shanghai leading to unrest

 

My fear? 

Covid got pushed back but I'm not sure its done with us yet.  The Chinese are seeing this first hand and MUCH TO MY SURPRISE we're seeing hints of unrest in Shanghai.

Chinese rioting isn't common (I think...I don't have good visibility on that country and don't follow the news as carefully as I should) and this should be a warning.

Global supply chains will continue to be strained.

We already know the deal with food, energy and general inflation.

I thought just the US was under societal stress...well the US and Europe but apparently that's gone global in a big way.

From my chair we're seeing the conditions set for something big and bad.  Just my guess but it ain't hard to see.
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French Leclerc MBT in action

 I always thought the Leclerc was underrated.  It's fast, has good sensors (or so I'm told), has a great gun....kinda checks all the boxes.  My only question is the armor protection but I can't find any opinions on how it stacks up.


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France's 𝟚𝟟 𝕓𝕣𝕚𝕘𝕒𝕕𝕖 𝕚𝕟𝕗𝕒𝕟𝕥𝕖𝕣𝕚𝕖 𝕞𝕠𝕟𝕥𝕒𝕘𝕟𝕖

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Hmmm! BACON!!!

Get it quick before we can't afford it!

 
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Marine Littoral Regiment? Naw bro! More like a repeat of Marine Defense Battalions of WW2!

 


You think Marine Littoral Regiments are something new?  Naw bro!  They're a blast from the past.  It's just a rebranded Marine Defense Battalion with modern toys.  Check this out via Wikipedia...

Marine Defense Battalions were United States Marine Corps battalions charged with coastal and air defense of advanced naval bases during World War II. They maintained large anti-ship guns, anti-aircraft guns, searchlights, and small arms to repel landing forces.

Sounds pretty damn familiar to what we're seeing with the Marine Littoral Regiments don't it?

But wait!

These Marine Defense Battalions were obviously successful right?  I mean they had to be since we're trying out a new version right?  Well...uh...no.

Defense of Wake Island

Main article: Battle of Wake Island

In January 1941, the United States Navy constructed a military base on Wake Island. On 19 August, the first permanent military garrison, understrength elements of the 1st Marine Defense Battalion,[2] totaling 450 officers and men,[3] were stationed on the island, under Major James P.S. Devereux. The defense battalion was supplemented by Marine Corps fighter squadron VMF-211, consisting of 12 F4F-3 Wildcat fighters, commanded by Major Paul A. Putnam. Also present on the island were 68 U.S. Navy personnel and about 1,221 civilian workers for the Morrison-Knudsen Civil Engineering Company. Forty-five Chamorro men were employed by Pan American Airways at the company's facilities in Wake Island, one of the stops on the Pan Am Clipper trans-Pacific air service initiated in 1935.

Early on the morning of 11 December, the garrison, with the support of the four remaining Wildcats, repelled the first Japanese landing attempt by the South Seas Force, which included the light cruisers Yubari, Tenryū, and Tatsuta; the destroyers Yayoi, Mutsuki, Kisaragi, Hayate, Oite, and Asanagi; Patrol Boat No. 32 and Patrol Boat No. 33 (two Momi-class destroyers converted to patrol boats), and two troop transport ships containing 450 Special Naval Landing Force troops.

The U.S. Marines fired at the invasion fleet with their six 5-inch (127 mm) coast-defense guns. Major Devereux ordered the gunners to hold their fire until the enemy moved within range of the coastal defenses. "Battery L", on Peale islet, succeeded in sinking Hayate at a distance of 4,000 yd (3,700 m) with at least two direct hits to her magazines, causing her to explode and sink within two minutes, in full view of the defenders on shore. Yubari's superstructure was hit 11 times. The four Wildcats also succeeded in sinking the destroyer Kisaragi by dropping a bomb on her stern where the depth charges were stored. Both Japanese destroyers were lost with nearly all hands (there was only one survivor, from Hayate), with Hayate becoming the first Japanese surface warship to be sunk in the war. The Japanese force withdrew without landing. This was the first Japanese setback of the war against the Americans. After the initial raid was fought off the siege continued and frequent Japanese air attacks on the Wake garrison continued, without resupply for the Americans.

The second Japanese invasion force came on 23 December, composed mostly of the ships from the first attempt with the major reinforcements of the carriers Hiryū and Sōryū, plus 1,500 Japanese marines. The landings began at 02:35; after a preliminary bombardment, PB 32 and PB 33 were beached and burnt in their attempts to land the invasion force. After a full night and morning of fighting, the Wake garrison surrendered to the Japanese by mid-afternoon.

The U.S. Marines lost 49 killed and two MIA during the entire 15-day siege, while three U.S. Navy personnel and at least 70 U.S. civilians were killed, including 10 Chamorros, and 12 civilians wounded. Japanese losses were recorded at around 820 killed, with around 333 more wounded, in addition to the two destroyers that were lost in the first invasion attempt with nearly all hands (168 from Hayate and 157 from Kisaragi, 325 in total for the two Mutsuki-class destroyers) on the first assault. At least 28 land-based and carrier aircraft were also either shot down or damaged. The Japanese captured all men remaining on the island, the majority of whom were civilian contractors.[4] A special military decoration, the Wake Island Device, affixed to either the Navy Expeditionary Medal or the Marine Corps Expeditionary Medal, was created to honor those who had fought in the defense of the island.

Check out Wikipedia and dig into it on your own.

We're putting our Marines within weapons engagement zone of the enemy?  Having them LIVE THERE and trying to buy into the fantasy that they won't be found, fixed and destroyed?

That we believe the Chinese won't tag and track every LAW that hits the water?  That they haven't penetrated "allies" in the area with spies?

Berger wants US TO BELIEVE that this fantasy is real?  That we won't see a repeat of history?

This new Marine Corps (I prefer Marine Littoral Force...how about Marine Stand-In-Force) is being setup to die ugly.

The king has no clothes and no one is willing to say so. 

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Pentagon's #2 Civilian gets it!

Reality!

War is terrible and innocents die everyday.

Which brings me to the civilian deaths in Ukraine.  Horrible.  Terrible.

I've seen the pics and they're heartbreaking.  But its war.  Even worse?  You go to certain parts of this country and you'll see the same everyday.  War just focuses the attention of the masses and its harder to tune it out (unlike local crimes of violence).

Which brings me to this.

Why the disconnect?

I watch the talking heads on the news and they're talking about the massive civilian casualties.  Again, I get it.  If it bleeds it leads. Additionally there appears to be a concerted effort to rally public opinion behind the Ukrainian effort.  Again I get it.

BUT!

This is modern warfare.  It's gonna be ugly.  It's gonna be horrible and civilians that decide to become combatants..as well as those that don't will suffer.

People point to this being the first major such and such in Europe since WW2 seem to forget that WW2 saw Europe ravaged.

What we did to Dresden was almost biblical destruction.  We did the same to Tokyo in Japan.

Russia has bombarded cities, but we utterly destroyed them the last time we were in peer combat.

Now I circle back to what the Pentagon #2 is saying.

I've wondered why the American military is supposedly gearing up for a big fight with China but I see little evidence that the other parts of govt are hardening up to deal with the ravages of war.

We might not be hit kinetically but we will certainly suffer some type of cyber attack.  The power system being shut off in either the winter or summer on either coast will cost many deaths, not to mention the societal chaos that will come with it.

I think the only good thing that will come out of the Ukraine/Russia war will be the realization that real deal nation state war will be nothing like we saw in Iraq/Afghanistan or what they're dealing with in Syria.

It will be massive, it will be uncontained/extremely difficult to contain and the best that can be hoped for is that it doesn't spiral into a global affair.

Of course this brings me to my final pet peeve with this conflict. If we do indeed find ourselves crossing swords with China, we've already used up our economic bullets.  Every sanction used will be studied and EVERY country will be looking to insulate themselves from the effects.

China is matching us and we shot  one of our shells a bit early.
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Long-Range Strike Systems Observed in Ukraine

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Michigan Militia, accused of wanting to kidnap the governor found NOT guilty! (UPDATED)

THIS IS HUGE!
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I just realized my biggest problem with Force Design 2030...it focuses too much on tying the Corps to the fleet and littoral action.

 via WarOnTheRocks

Narrowly categorizing the Marine Corps of the future as a specialized anti-ship force fails to acknowledge the balanced nature of the future force. Both A Concept for Stand-In Forces and the Tentative Manual for Expeditionary Advanced Based Operations describe a Marine Corps with a developed capability to persist within contested maritime spaces as a direct extension of the fleet. These littoral forces are as much a deterrent as they are a lethal leading edge of the naval force. They gain and maintain custody of critical adversary targets while building awareness of adversary patterns and decision-making cycles. Their efforts in the information environment and counter reconnaissance fights disrupt adversary understanding and intentions while remaining prepared to rapidly escalate to conflict.

This is a decidedly asymmetric approach to the increasingly denial-focused strategies applied by adversaries attempting to counter American naval strength. Critiques that the Marine Corps may no longer be a forcible entry force omit the reality that modern forcible entry is a joint problem, especially against a peer adversary. Penetrating a denied area from the outside is a scenario that is decidedly symmetrical and to be avoided. Properly executed, stand-in forces persisting within contested spaces can gain and maintain a capability to rapidly strike targets while denying a coherent picture of the fleet to adversaries. Marine forces extend the fleet’s ability to sense and make sense of the environment while becoming an unavoidable obstacle to enemy actions. It does this as an inside force, disintegrating an adversary’s system from the inside out and providing...

Here 

This is my problem with this concept.

It ties the Marine Corps solidly to the Navy.  Back to our roots? Back to servitude and a MUCH SMALLER Marine Corps.

Think about the Marine Corps most storied battles.

Think about actions where the Nation most needed the Marine Corps to perform and perform well.

Many if not most occurred outside the smelling range of the sea water...far from the coast.

Instead of being a force that can be called on by Combatant Commanders from Europe, to the Middle East, to Africa, the Arctic and Pacific, we see the CALCULATED decision made to make this into a one foe, one region force.

That is not the Marine Corps way and goes totally against tradition.

Berger wants a missile shooting, artillery force with attached air.

The MAGTF is dead... he doesn't (neither does his acolytes) have the courage to admit that they've tossed away a formula that should be evolved.  They trashed it instead.

I stand by my previous.

Let these fuckers have their plan.  Just case the colors and rebrand the thing.

They don't deserve to link a glorious past to this monstrosity.

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Thursday, April 07, 2022

Knock-on effects of the war in Ukraine? Cow shit has risen in price.

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The list of gear the US sent to Ukraine...

I personally believe the biggest mistake Russia made was in underestimating the response of the US (probably a few European nations too) to their invasion.

I'm looking at this list and my guess is the counter artillery systems were probably at LEAST as important IF NOT MORE important than the anti-tank missiles.

Secure communication probably ranks high too.  Sat imagery?  They're saying commercial but I CAN TELL by the way Ukraine was able to target high value sites that they had better than that.

Also note that this is the unclassified assistance. 

I'm betting the classified shit was even more robust and even more helpful in this fight.
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Wasp-class amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge (LHD 3) @ exercise Northern Viking 22

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What happens when the war is over? Who will pay to rebuild Ukraine?

Trying to look a bit into the future.

What happens when the war is over?  Who will pay to rebuild Ukraine?

If they reach a negotiated settlement then I'm pretty sure that Russia will demand its money unfrozen.  I don't see how they could "tax" Russian income if everyone is still embargoing their products (oil/food).

Meanwhile I expect the economic downturn to extend for at least another year or two (assuming we're lucky), which means that most nations in Europe and the US will be pretty damn cash strapped.

I guess contracts can be given to construction firms in the US and Europe to rebuild the thing but that will be cost prohibitive and take a ton of time.

The weird thing?

Hear me out on this and don't rage before you think!

The weird thing is that with all the destruction, the massive flow of people out of Ukraine, the tremendous costs of rebuilding it....

The Russians might have already won.  They MIGHT have won a crushed/massively destroyed country but at the end of the day they might have already won.

But flip that around.

What if Ukraine pushes the Russians out and wins.  They won the war but still have to win the rebuild.  Will the US/EU back that? What do you base your belief that we will when EACH nation will (assumably) be dealing with inflation, supply chain issues, high energy prices etc...?

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Australia sends Bushmasters to Ukraine.

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Berger: We can't judge Force Design 2030 till years down the road?

 via Defense One.

On Monday, Berger was asked about the criticisms at the Navy League’s conference outside Washington, D.C. He responded by saying it is too early to judge whether his Force Design 2030 plan is working. 

“I think you can't really grade a service chief’s homework, the second half, until years down the road. And then you'll know whether they organized, trained, and equipped that force to do what it needed to do in the future. Because the future is—there's a lot of unknowns there. We have to make a lot of assumptions and make hard decisions.”

Here. 

The son of a bitch is practically telling you that he's making wild ass guesses.

You wonder why I've said he pulled it out of his ass, threw it against the wall and told some youngsters it was ice cream and they ate it up?

I'm done with this issue.

All I ask is to rebrand the organization.  Case the Marine Corps colors and pick a new name/flag for this .... "thing".

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Ukrainian drone chasing a Russian soldier back to his unit.

Still don't think the US should participate in this mess. Still think that Europe should be able to shoulder this load alone and if it was ANYWHERE else on the planet, then the US, EU, and NATO wouldn't give a fuck.

So why am I posting this video?

Because of the implications for the future.

Humans are running from drones.  I just have to wonder what an AI would have done in this situation.  Kill or follow?

Only the Turks seem to have gotten it right.

As far as US ground forces (meaning the US Army)?  They've got to get credible anti-drone capability like yesterday.

Hypersonics are indeed coming.  I get it.  But drones are here now.  Just like we once had every vehicle equipped with machineguns to deal with enemy infantry its now OBVIOUS we need every vehicle equipped with an anti-drone system.

Survival on the future battlefield demands it.

Sidenote cause I don't want to do a seperate blog post.  Has anyone watched how many Tigrs the Russians have lost?  The JLTV as a combat vehicle going into the future might not be such a good idea...not unless it can get APS, anti-drone tech etc...
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Israeli Air Force celebrates the jubilee of the 200th Squadron, the IAF's pioneer in the field of RPAs

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Boxer is in a bit of trouble in Australia...

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European blood.

This.

This right here.

This is why the tilt to the Pacific is such a joke.  As a matter of fact if I ran China I would fully fund the Russian nation to continue to agitate.  If I ran China I would seek to make the war last as long as possible.

Why?

Because of this vid.  The reaction of certain segments of the public to the war (certain segments in the US...Europe is scared shitless).

No one will say it out loud but this thing has a racial tinge to it. 

What did the video say?

European blood.

That's why Europe was prioritized over Japan in WW2.  It's why our reaction to this has been so vigorous (does it make sense to shoot all these economic bullets at Russia....seems like the massive sanctions would have been reserved for a Chinese move against Taiwan...but now China will insulate themselves from any of the things done to Russia!).

This is a very effective video.  But its also telling.
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