Friday, April 15, 2022

Parsing the War On The Rocks article on FD2030 explains why its failing...

I highlighted parts of Barrack's article to show how jacked up Berger's force design 2030 is, why its failing so badly and why its bringing such organizational chaos to the force. Re-read the article then circle back here.

via War On The Rocks.

But doing so requires open communication about the designs and an effective means to gain institutional buy-in. Since the commandant appears to have lost the support of a large cadre of retired Marine generals, something clearly went off the rails. 

Berger might be a change agent (a poor one) but he's also demonstrated himself to be a poor leader.  A leader will get buy-in from those he leads.  He just tried to ram this thru.

 Possibly the force design’s most controversial aspect is the commandant’s near-singular focus on enabling sea denial in a naval expeditionary campaign. This stems from then-Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis’ designation of China as the “pacing threat.” 

This is the most puzzling piece of this force design drama.  Mattis signed onto the letter stating that Berger has gone too far and is leading the former Marine Corps into a bad direction. 

NO ONE is making note of this!  The man that supposedly made the decision behind this dramatic change DOES NOT support it!

 The commandant’s emphasis on stand-in forces as a force defining concept contributes to these concerns. Just as China is the pacing threat, stand-in forces is the pacing concept. In essence, stand-in forces are small, low-observable units which operate within range of an adversary’s sensors and weapons in order to enable operations and complicate the adversary’s plans. Yet “crisis response” is not even mentioned in the concept.

Berger has been focused on the stand-in-force concept with the dedication of a crack addict chasing his next fix. He abandoned the roles of 9-1-1 force, crisis response force and amphibious assault completely after this thing rolled out.

Now?  Now his minions are trying to convince people that its still applicable.  No one believes it and I don't think the mouth pieces believe it themselves.

Damage control is in full effect.

 The Marine Corps needs to clarify its roles in contingencies beyond China and in warfighting concepts beyond that of stand-in forces. Of particular importance to Marine identity is to clarify how the service contributes to offensive operations. Since the concept of stand-in forces is specifically defensive — it makes no claim otherwise — then what concept guides the Marine Corps in the offense?

Specifically defensive.  For better or worse that is not the American way of war.  We are an attacking force (not stating that's a good thing...just that it IS a thing).  

This is why I believe if Berger is to get his way then fine...just rebrand the Marine Corps into a Coastal Defense Force...rip it down even further and put it in the same box as the Navy has its NECC.

 A professional discourse on innovation, warfighting, and roles and missions is warranted to ensure the Marine Corps remains “ready to fight.” To wait until consensus or clarity, though, is to impose paralysis on innovation and adaptation. 

This part has me punching walls.

Change Agent 101 says that you don't start till you have a vision of what the organization will look like at the end.

Berger and company isn't doing that.

They're trying to do this on the fly.  THAT IS A RECIPE FOR ORGANIZATIONAL DYSFUNCTION!  That is how you end up with organizational failure.

I'm assuming that all these colonels and generals know this but they're making basic mistakes that defy understanding.

They got no buy in.  They're alienating some of their biggest supporters.  They have diluted the brand that they say they love and have served in damn near a lifetime. 

Perhaps most importantly they're diminishing the role of their organization in its field (warfighting) and instead making it a niche force that is useless except in one area of the world.

Updated list of weaponry supplied to Ukraine by the US

 


Ukraine War Is Depleting America’s Arsenal of Democracy

via Bloomberg.

America is following an “arsenal of democracy” strategy in Ukraine: It has avoided direct intervention against the Russian invaders, while working with allies and partners to provide the Kyiv government with money and guns.

That strategy, reminiscent of U.S. support for Britain in 1940-41, has worked wonders. Yet as the war reaches a critical stage, with the Russians preparing to consolidate their grip on eastern Ukraine, the arsenal of democracy is being depleted.

That could cause a fatal shortfall for Ukrainian forces in this conflict, and it is revealing American weaknesses that could be laid bare in the next great-power fight.

---------- 

This is presenting Western countries with a stark choice between pouring more supplies into Ukraine or husbanding finite capabilities they may need for their own defense.

Germany has declined to transfer tanks to Ukraine on grounds that it simply cannot spare them. Canada quickly ran short on rocket launchers and other equipment that the Ukrainians desperately need. The U.S. has provided one-third of its overall stockpile of Javelin anti-tank missiles. It cannot easily deliver more without leaving its own armories badly depleted — and it may take months or years to significantly ramp up production.

Here 

If I was China, I'd have Russia keep pushing...keep letting the allies restock Ukrainian supplies.  Keep the world simmering on the edge of economic ruin.

China would buy every drop of Russian oil, setup their own economic system outside of the one dominated by the West, restock Russian weaponry with a mix of Chinese/Russian tech...I'd do everything to keep Russia going and the West engaged in the defense of Ukraine.

Once their system is setup with the rest of the brick and road countries, a semi-peace established with India, more formalized relations with Russia, I'd get Iran to act a fool in the Middle East.

A few missile attacks against Riyadh, the IRG gets the Palestinians to start a few missile and terror attacks against Israel and a new offensive by Syria to push forces there and the West would be distracted to the extreme.

Then in early 2023, if I was China, I'd make a move against Taiwan.

The Navy won't be set to repulse the attack, the Coastal Defense Force formerly known as the Marine Corps will be halfway thru the transition and incapable of defending or projecting power...and our warstock will be essentially depleted...especially since the war in Ukraine has become an emotional instead of a strategic affair.

This is the type of danger that we're in which presents a tremendous opportunity to our enemies.

Russia used Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bombers for the first time in this war to strike Ukrainian positions in Mariupol city.

 

Told you this thing was gonna get uglier. I'm interested to see the Ukrainian counterpunch.

What is this madness in Shanghai?

I don't see how we can call this a "human rights" catastrophe when many in the West wanted the same type actions performed against citizens here who did not want to comply with the lockdown. It's very interesting though on an international economic stage. The knock-on effects of this will cripple most nations dependent on Chinese exports.

History doesn't repeat but I CAN see how its rhyming right now. It's like we're in the pre-war era before WW2.

The US/EU/NATO all hang their hats on "deterrence".  But that doesn't work against a foe that feels compelled to take a certain course of action.

Our focus should change from "deterrence" to one of creating formidable defenses that can react to hostile actions.  More Rapid Deployment Forces/REFORGER type activities, less forward deployed forces that wear themselves out on exercise after exercise.

“Iron Beam” laser interception system.

 

Open Comment Post. 15 Apr 22

 


Thursday, April 14, 2022

173rd Airborne Brigade practices America's last viable form of forcible entry...

 Air Assault is no longer viable.  The deep helicopter strike in Iraq proved that.  The Marines are no longer the Marines and are better described as a Coastal Defense Force.  Needless to say, amphibious assault is dead...as is the old mantra of them being a 9-1-1 force. That leaves America's Airborne as the last viable form of forcible entry we have.  Perhaps its time for the 101st to go back to being a parachute outfit?


The Ukraine - Russia war is gonna get uglier...

 

 

...the Russians are furious

 Everyone has made a caricature of Putin, yet don't seem to understand that he's just another world leader.  Leaders have to respond to the mood of their populace.  Putin will have to respond to this.

This thing is gonna get uglier.

Is anyone trying to find an off ramp or are we in a phase of fighting for the sake of fighting now.  Not saying to stop supplying the Ukrainians but someone needs to start diplomatic efforts...NOW!

The world economy is headed off a cliff.  We gotta get off  this highway or the seeds of WW3 will sprout....just after the global depression/recession (it will depend on what part of the world you're in).

US Coastal Defense Force refuels MV-22

 

U.S. Marine Corps bulk fuel specialists with Marine Medium Tiltrotor Squadron 265 (Rein.), 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), prepare to refuel a MV-22B Osprey during a Forward Arming and Refueling Point (FARP) exercise on Okinawa, Japan, April. 14, 2022. A FARP is used to extend the capabilities of rotary or fixed wing aircrafts to allow rearming and refueling without having to fall back to a forward operating base. The 31st MEU, the Marine Corps’ only continuously forward-deployed MEU, provides a flexible and lethal force ready to perform a wide range of military operations as the premier crisis response force in the Indo-Pacific region. 

Check out "Tank Diary" on Twitter for Ukraine coverage..

I'm turning off cheerleaders when it comes to Ukraine/Russia war coverage. If I want that I can just read most of the comments on this blog. Fear is a powerful drug. Everyone is ignoring the economic trainwreck coming to crush the global system while they bite on every ounce of propaganda being posted on the web. This dude seems to play it straight.

NOTE!

I am not doing any of the following...

 .... imply victims are responsible for their own tragedy or similar instances of victim blaming, such as claims that Ukraine is committing genocide or deliberately attacking its own citizens.

We live in dangerous times. We are seeing outright censorship of news on the war in Ukraine and most are cheering...

We are living in dangerous times.

In case you haven't noticed we're witnessing warfare occuring right in front of our faces and we only see one side of it.

We have all kinds of people keeping track of Russian losses but none on the Ukrainian side.

We see some Twitter accounts giving a running account of Russian dead but none on the Ukrainian side.

I wonder why Ukraine even needs our help when the common meme is that they're winning this thing easily.

But what's more worrying is that not only are citizens not questioning ANYTHING (what did the Romans say...give the mob bread and circuses) but we see an almost coordinated effort by the news media and govt to continue in this model too.

My guess.

The Pentagon and the rest of NATO is at war with Russia. I find it extremely difficult to believe that they could have stood up to this onslaught without outside help BEYOND simple intel and targeting.

I'm borderline convinced that NATO is probably right on the edge of ACTIVE kinetic participation.  I could be wrong but it looks like it to me.

Have a care though.

The battle of Mariupol was gonna be nasty before.  Its gonna be downright horrific now.

I have no visibility about what is going on over there because I'm living in the same information vacuum as the rest of you, but I would not be surprised to see the whole character of the war change in the next week (I'm guessing after Easter will see things ramp up tremendously).

Artillery and missile attacks will look more like what was expected at the beginning of this thing.

Note.  I am not advocating for Russia or blaming Ukraine.  I'm calling things as I see them and trying to predict where this will go with LIMITED visibility on this conflict.

One thing is certain.  Open source has effectively become nullified.  At best its only able to keep score of equipment and personnel losses (assuming its on the side of the nation not being supported).

I don't want war with China but I'm curious to see how the news media handles it.  Corporate America responded in unison against Russia.  Will they against China?  How far will obedience to nation state passions run when the opponent has financial power that rivals our own and in some cases touches on the industries tasked with covering them.

Tim Barrack's article on Force Design 2030 deserves careful study. It is a MUST READ!

 This bubba is the only person that has laid out a balanced view of Berger's concept.  A few things stand out and I'll try and touch on them all.  Time is short and I gotta get out to the range and get a quick workout in so I'll circle back to them (the idea that Mattis is the impetus of this concept ... or so we're told ...yet he's signed on to thinking that Berger went to far deserves its own blog post) later, but this part should spark a great deal of discussion.

 Is the Marine Corps optimized to be a 9-1-1 force or to be a stand-in force versus China? Can the two be the same? (my answer is no!) And if the argument is that they are the same, then why is crisis response not even mentioned in the concept? (because Berger doesn't give a FUCK about crisis response!) These questions undoubtedly run through their minds. The recent ending of rotational crisis response forces in combat commands outside of the Pacific further reinforce this concern.

This venerated group of critics knows the threats and challenges. Their advocacy is based on the idea that the Marine Corps must remain a general-purpose force that can flex to all threats and not be optimized for just one threat and mission. They are struggling to reconcile how the Marine Corps maintains its legacy as a 9-1-1 force while optimizing to a stand-in force concept applicable to a narrow set of conditions, albeit ones deemed critical to national strategy.

Here 

I contend that Berger doesn't give a rats ass about being America's 9-1-1 force.  He doesn't care about forcible entry. He doesn't give a fuck about being shock troops.

He only cares about China and the Indo Pacific.

Furthermore I believe that he will gladly sacrifice the future of what we knew as the Marine Corps to get his bastard child birthed.

The curious thing?

The Navy will focus on the sea battle and will get around to providing ships for Berger's concept when they get to it but battle force ships will have priority.

With the current budget it was gonna be a scramble for resources.  The Army owns land combat and is posturing to aid the sea battle.  They'll get their slice.  The Air Force will assist the Navy in the air war and will conduct anti-shipping strikes. They're good to go too.  The Navy (although slow to move) is the lead service when it comes to fighting in the vast reaches of that region.  They're naturally gonna get a plus up.

Berger by shedding roles and functions has hamstrung the former Marine Corps (I SO FUCKING WISH HE WOULD REBRAND THE ORGANIZATION) and violated the rule of the Pentagon.

He is trying to do it within current budgets.

That's almost childishly stupid when it comes to the Washington DC turf battles.

He was a terrible change agent.  He's only added friction when a steady hand was needed.  He's myopic to the point of arrogance, and he won't consider outside counsel.

I'm calling it now.

He's failed commandant number 3.

Amos was horrible.

Neller was a joke.

Berger is just fucking lost.

Marine Littoral Force @ Balikatan 22 1/3 Coastal Defense, Field Meet

Marine Littoral Force =/= Marine Corps

 

VMGR-352 Flagship Aircraft Inaugural Flight

The “color-bird” KC-130J Super Hercules with Marine Aerial Refueler Transport Squadron (VMGR) 352, Marine Aircraft Group 11, 3rd Marine Aircraft Wing returns from its inaugural flight on Marine Corps Air Station Miramar, California, April 12, 2022. A squadron’s “color-bird” aircraft is painted with the squadron’s colors and oftentimes includes the squadron’s logo, honoring the unit’s legacy.


The Marine Littoral Force has no "legacy" to honor. They must build their own. Marine Littoral Force =/= Marine Corps.

The US Army's new night vision is freaking awesome...

 

Well this is awkward...transgendered inmate impregnates two female inmates in New Jersey prison

 

Biology can be difficult to deal with if you're focused on political correctness.

It all starts with familiarization...then they fill the void...U.S. Army Soldiers with the Advanced Leaders Course at the U.S. Army Aviation Center of Excellence Noncommissioned Officer Academy - Fort Eustis pose for a group photo on USS Bataan

 

Might as well put Army Aviation on ships the Commandant has deemed "irrelevant" for our future direction. I wonder how many Strykers and MLRS (anti-ship versions) they'll fit when they fully flex into the Pacific?  I'm betting it'll be more than we've done...much like aircraft on carriers, our LHA/LHD have been operating "understrength" for decades.

Open Comment Post. 14 Apr 22

Anyone fire one of these closed emitter red dots? 

3rd Battalion, 21st Infantry Regiment @ the Donnelly Training Area during Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center 22-02