Saturday, April 23, 2022
There will be no military unblocking of Mariupol now.
The stage is set.There will be no military unblocking of Mariupol now. The military in Azovstal understand this, such reality
— ZOKA (@200_zoka) April 23, 2022
- Zelensky
Ukrainian Marines to a lesser degree, but Azov Regiment (because of their white washing) to a much greater degree will get a chance at having their last stand.
This will prove to be interesting.
I don't know much about the Ukrainian Marines (they appear to have fought well, but once again the Azov fans have overshadowed them) and I'm more concerned about their well being and those of the civilians trapped.
I don't think attempting a breakout is possible or wise.
Will they surrender? The Russians offered a chance and they were turned down. Does the offer still stand?
Do they even want to surrender?
Azov is a totally different can of bad fish. I'm sure a few have visions of martyrdom dancing in their heads.
Then we have the civilians. Supposedly attempts to get them out have been tried but failed. Will the UN attempt another extraction under my proposal to have them interned in a third country till the fighting was over?
The ugly of the war is coming and coming fast.
Opinion. The War in Ukraine is transitioning. We've seen the pretty, the not so pretty and now we're going to the downright ugly...
Ya know what I've noticed about the war in Ukraine?
Everyone is ignoring the psychological aspects of this thing. People are laser focused on battle formation, the tech, the performance of individual units (I've been guilty of this one) and how both sides perform in the defense/offense.
The psychological part of this thing is the key though...at least in my mind.
I'm saying the war is transitioning, has been transitioning, from the pretty, not so pretty and now we're headed to the downright ugly.
What do I mean?
From my chair, when the invasion first started, I truly believe the Russian leadership thought that they would be welcomed with open arms. Additionally I believe that even the Ukrainian leadership wasn't sure.
I've talked about Zelinsky's arc.
When this thing first kicked off the guy looked dumbfounded. Dazed and confused. He had no answer except for pure unadulterated shock.
Much to his credit and my surprise, he shook back, regained his footing and put his entire nation on a war footing. A TOTAL WAR FOOTING.
Don't underestimate how important that was.
Several allies to include the US offered him a ride out so that he could lead a govt in exile. He refused (hit them with the soon to be iconic..."I don't need a ride, I need weapons").
That set the stage for part 2. The not so pretty.
What did we see then? We saw civilians making molotov cocktails, adding machineguns to private vehicles, AK's were being handed out like candy to every male (able bodied or not).
The media made it a sensation.
The Ukrainians were emboldened.
What did we see? In an active war zone we saw civilians riding around in their private vehicles throwing molotov cocktails onto Russian armored vehicles. We ACTUALLY SAW protesters block armored formations (this shit had me spinning...anywhere else that would have ended BADLY)!
Which leads to the not so pretty, headed to downright ugly part of this thing...sorta the transition inside the transition.
Oh and before I go further understand that I am NOT excusing the killing of non-combatants, just trying to do a tick-tock of events.
We saw the Russians get hard. We saw Russian commentators ask if they're fighting or masturbating. We saw savagery in suburbs around Kyiv.
Which leads to the downright ugly we're headed for now.
The way Russia deployed its forces in the initial assault made no sense UNLESS they were expecting limited resistance.
They've since corrected and now they're massing armor, artillery, infantry and airpower on a limited objective.
Mariupol is all but done. Some expect a major push on Odessa. The allies are rushing heavy artillery, counterbattery radar and loitering UAVs to Ukraine.
We have no visibility on Russia but I expect they're continuing to gather forces and I would not be surprised if the Chinese are augmenting their munitions.
The next few weeks will be a full on modern war.
Buckle up.
This ain't gonna just be ugly. It's gonna be coyote ugly.
Why it’s critical for NATO to exercise
“The invasion to Ukraine of Russia underlined again that you need to have capable forces, combat-ready.” Learn why long-planned military drills continue across the Alliance in a changing security environment. To improve readiness, capability and interoperability, NATO regularly conducts exercises, testing forces in the air, on land and at sea to make sure they are able to face all possible scenarios. Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has changed the face of European security and underlined the need for combat-ready forces to be able to deploy at speed across NATO Allied territory. Military exercises such as Cold Response and Brilliant Jump, which took place in the Arctic, are long-planned training exercises that enable troops to practise their skills in sub-zero temperatures on difficult terrain. More than 30,000 troops from 27 NATO Allies and partners took part in Cold Response ‘22 in Norway in March.
Friday, April 22, 2022
Military aid to Ukraine during month 1 of the war
Zelensky needs to change his tune to one of appreciation instead of demanding...we're bankrolling his war! For all the shit I hear from Europeans it seems that once again the American taxpayer is having to "save European" democracy.
Geez.
We have enough problems right here at home...kinda be nice to see American infrastructure get the same boost in spending that we send overseas.
This chart shows military aid to Ukraine during month 1 of the war pic.twitter.com/FqQKtTJgOn
— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) April 22, 2022
LAND POWER VITAL TO INDO-PACIFIC
I hadn't been paying attention.Land Power Vital to Indo-Pacific @25thID @7thID @USArmyAlaska @USARPAC @INDOPACOM @USArmy https://t.co/3gzsclJu9N
— I Corps (@I_Corps) April 22, 2022
I Corps has laid it out.
Unless I'm reading this wrong it appears that the 25th ID and 7th ID (US Army Alaska too ... isn't that also elements of the 25th?) will be the units tasked with the Pacific mission set. I'm guessing that they'll be getting additional MLRS, probably aviation too.
They've already started increasing their waterborne training and the only thing left is for them to start to integrate aboard Navy ships.
I would not be shocked to see an LHD dedicated to Army assets in the near future (aviation to include UAVs and probably a tailored brigade combat team for the Indo-Pacific).
The Army is coming to the Pacific and they're coming hard.
Another one bites the dust....HMH-463 Deactivation
 |
| The cased colors for Marine Heavy Helicopter Squadron 463 are displayed during the deactivation ceremony for HMH-463, Marine Corps Air Station Kaneohe Bay, Marine Corps Base Hawaii, April 21, 2022. HMH-463’s deactivation is in accordance with Force Design 2030 as the Marine Corps modernizes... |
Subs are the great equalizer against the Chinese Navy? Check out this chart to see projected numbers in 2030 and beyond...
Watch when this hits 1943! 📈‼️#Submarines #SubFridaypic.twitter.com/1ylzcbYT79 https://t.co/6v8Zl6GdNd
— 🇺🇸 Old Submariner ⚓️ (@USN_Submariner) April 22, 2022
US Army's Multi-Domain Concept. Seize land, sink ships, fight anywhere at anytime....they're adding more HIMARS to out Stand-In-Force, the Missile Marines.
The Army took more time but they developed a concept that will have them fighting in any place and clime, able to pivot to fight the Chinese and support naval actions while still performing their primary mission of seizing territory and defeating enemy ground forces.US Army budget: "The Army currently has 395 HIMARS launchers on hand and is increasing the Army Acquisition Objective to 521 to support the Army Structure Memorandums for 2022-2026, and 2023-2027". The Army plans to buy 23 launchers in FY-23, 27 in FY-24, and 55 b/w FY-25 & 27. pic.twitter.com/05tEIcnp5R
— Air Power (@MIL_STD) April 22, 2022
They evolved their force instead of trying a radical transformation and out Stand-In-Force the Missile Marines.
If the 25th ID gets 200 of them along with getting aboard Navy ships (along with Army Aviation) then we could be looking at a Marine Corps that is once again in search of a mission.
I've said it before and I'll say it again.
Berger failed in his effort. Too convinced that he was right. Unwilling to listen to criticism. Failure to get buy in. Too quick to shit on the work of his predecessors.
He is another failed Commandant.
He definitely wasn't the change agent that he sought to be.
Germany's producer price inflation jumps to 30.9% in March, the highest level since 1949.
Don't laugh.
I believe we're in the same boat in the US, its just that our govt is massaging the number to make things look better than they actually are. It also explains why the Fed is getting so serious about inflation (which caused the stock market to have kittens today...down at one point almost 1K points).
We're just delaying the pain. Which leads me back to the Ukraine situation. I believe we should negotiate with the Russians NOW (US/EU/NATO/Ukrainians have leverage...if the worst happens it will disappear)!
Soon economic considerations will cause individual nations to peel off from the alliance due to domestic pressure to get prices/inflation under control. If unemployment becomes an issue (which I think it will) then you can even see some govts flip to the opposition (I expect an EASY Republican victory in Nov unless things dramatically change).
The long made short?
The longer this goes on, the greater the chance that the unity being shown by the alliance will devolve into bickering over the world's economic state.
NEW - Germany's producer price inflation jumps to 30.9% in March, the highest level since 1949.
— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) April 20, 2022
Chinese High Mobility Infantry Company
I don't know if this is new or just new to me. Interesting. Seems like the basis for a Rapid Deployment Force with a bit more staying power than the legacy 82nd had.
High Mobility Infantry are to replace truckborne infantry in the Chinese Army Light CA Brigades. Goal is for a strategically mobile force with protection from 7.62 and limited fire support capabilities. Vics equivalent to up-armored HMMWVs but can carry a whole 9 man squad + PHQ pic.twitter.com/bldIz2gda2
— Battle Order (@battle_order) April 22, 2022
Have you heard this theory about Putin's health?
Amazing!Any doctor like me will look at Putin’s limp left arm and conclude that he is likely suffering from late onset Rett syndrome (Excogitari ineptias). He probably has months to live.
— Dr. Ian Garner (@irgarner) April 21, 2022
In this thread I will look at all the supporting evidence 1/27 pic.twitter.com/P8EfYMp1AX
This dude is good enough to diagnose Putin from thousands of miles away but can't watch our President at a news conference and deduce that he's suffering extreme mental decline.
Stuff like this is why I think tele-medicine is probably a joke. If not that then Doctors seriously have a "I am God" mental issue.
More people 16-64 years old died from alcohol-related deaths in 2020 than from covid19.
My opinion.My @postopinions column is about pandemic drinking.
— Leana Wen, M.D. (@DrLeanaWen) April 21, 2022
More people 16-64 years old died from alcohol-related deaths in 2020 than from #covid19. Alcohol-related skyrocketed 25% from 2019 to 2020, and will likely be worse in 2021.
Why & what to do? 🧵https://t.co/K46Vx66Dmp
We opted for a one size fits all to 'protect' the most vulnerable but in trying to do that, we wrecked our economy, stalled the development of children (which they may never recover from), caused a spike in crime (I am convinced that part of the crime problem comes from the psychological effects of the nation being put on house arrest and suddenly released), psychological damage to many adults that were unable to cope with the lockdown, uncountable deaths due to medical staffs delaying treatment of individuals with minor health issues that turned serious due to delayed medical care and probably caused suffering from food shortages worldwide (in addition to the drama in Ukraine).
Trump was loud and obnoxious. He irritated me to no end with his tweets.
But he was right. The cure was worse than the disease!
Thursday, April 21, 2022
Direct fire MLRS in an urban environment? Didn't know you could do that.
Video of Russian direct fire MLRS strikes on the Ilyich plant in Mariupol. https://t.co/kDkr2ySmSm pic.twitter.com/eHUlFGLo9p
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 22, 2022
Does the amount of aid being sent to Ukraine by the US/EU/NATO mean that we are in a state of war with Russia?
I know that we've been on the other side of this equation before.Norway has sent its Mistral anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine: https://t.co/1xs0Rpq0Pj
— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) April 22, 2022
But it was a bit different.
During Korea, UN Forces (led by the US) were engaged in combat with the N. Koreans. They were supported by Chinese and Soviet advisors, pilots and in the case of Chinese, forces on the ground.
In Vietnam, the US and S. Vietnamese faced off against the Viet Cong, N. Vietnamese, Chinese and supposedly (don't know if its been proven) Soviet Advisors and troops(leading/embedded with N. Vietnamese units).
Fast forward to today.
Does the amount of aid being sent to Ukraine mean that we are in a state of war with Russia?
I don't think it means we are...HOWEVER...I don't see ANYONE attempting to define what the end state of this thing will be/look like.
To be more precise, it seems like leadership, the news media and the public is engaged in the emotion of the fight so much that no one is thinking about what the end of this drama looks like.
Or even how to get there.
The scary thing? We just got finished with a similar fight. The Ukrainians are doing the fighting in this one, but no one is thinking about the end state...just like in Iraq...just like in Afghanistan.
If anyone was thinking about an end state in those fights it was filled with fantasy and not reality.
A Jeffersonian Democracy in the Middle East? Fat Chance!
So what are we looking for? A return to Ukraines original borders? To contain Russia to the status quo before the current fighting?
What carrot are we willing to give the Russians to accept a ceasefire? What is Ukraine willing to accept in order to start rebuilding their country?
Or is it as I fear. The opening stage of a couple of years of a raging war in the heart of Europe because no one took a moment and tried to plot a course on this thing?
The decision NOT to storm the Iron & Steel Works is the first smart action by the Russians so far...
Putin called it off and ordered his forces not to storm the iron works?Putin says he doesn’t want the factory stormed. It will be inexpedient to get bogged down inside. Lock it down so that not even a fly can escape, he tells Shoigu. pic.twitter.com/fACOrS9JJE
— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) April 21, 2022
This is the first smart action I've seen so far. Unlike many military leaders in the West, at least he seems to understand exactly how batshit crazy it is to engage in major urban combat.
Bigger than that though is it removes the chance of martyrdom for the Azov Regiment.
Yeah. In the West we have our version of martyrdom. Custer's last stand. Frozen Chosin. Charge of the light brigade. Blackhawk Down. The 300.
I would think it would be smart for a 3rd party nation to take custody of the residents, Marines and Azov and intern them for the remainder of the war (hot war anyway...I expect this to go on for years).
Ideally it would have been the US but I don't think we have that credibility currently (although it could lead to negotiations to end the bloodshed).
So who does that leave?
I'm thinking China, India, Israel, & Turkey.
Why those nations?
They all have or had relations with Russia/EU/USA, they're somewhat playing the middle game, and it could help their stature in the world (my prime picks for this would be India and Turkey).
Before you smash my idea then remember all the pleas and anguish I've heard about this war.
What is ya'll keep shouting? We've got to end the bloodshed? I don't think the Russians will leave an escape corridor, and trying to evade individually or in small groups is a recipe for disaster (although I'm sure some have tried).
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