Wednesday, July 13, 2022
What we haven't seen in the Ukraine/Russia war (or things that didn't work)
Your notes may vary but I've noticed a couple of things, I'm sure you've noticed stuff I've missed and I think we should compare notes.
1. Air Assaults are pretty much out. After the raid on the airport that was over.
2. Close air is gonna be carried out at distance if at all. SU-25 have been flying as have attack helicopters but they've been lobbying missiles from distance. I at least haven't seen gun runs. Even higher end aircraft are doing the thing from distance.
3. Artillery is still king. The artillery duels have been epic and missiles have been used to strike deep.
4. Towed artillery is dead meat. They're just too slow and can be countered rather easily.
5. We have little visibility but the dreaded cyber attacks haven't been close to what I was expecting.
6. I don't know what is going on with the electronic warfare thing but its not as highlighted as I expected.
7. Surface ships are vulnerable. They're getting knocked down from distance. A fight in the littorals? Bullshit! Navies will take the fight to blue water. Up close and you're meat for too many systems.
8. Drones are king or maybe not. The Ukrainians are talking about their TB-2s being ineffective and how they don't need Predators. They're good in passive environments only it would appear.
9. No raids of any kind by any elite force.
10. No airborne drops of any kind by any elite force.
11. Combined arms -- the jury is still out with regard to modern warfare. Neither side has really employed the concept so we don't know if TRUE mechanized warfare could work.
12. Fighting in cities is a sad joke. The idea of planners actually wanting to engage in fights in mega cities was a batshit crazy idea. In the small communities we've seen hellacious fights. In Mariupol we saw a relatively small group of defenders hold out for a long time. Once again. Artillery is king.
Sure I missed some stuff but my back is tweaked to hell, I'm medicated and a little pissed so cut me slack.
Tuesday, July 12, 2022
General Dynamics to supply Trophy APS Active Protection System kits for M1A2 SEPv2 and M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams MBTs
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| A rather neat solution. Wonder if the Army will establish an "Army Liaison" (along the lines of SF using indigenous forces for force multipliers) Force to aid allies (USMC) when their forces are needed. Large scale, armored/mech force knowledge is rapidly fading from Western forces. Leaders outside the Army are gonna need advice how to properly utilize them when they're attached to forces that lack heavy direct firepower and lack battlefield maneuver. |
Random acts of crime. Olympian attacked...
The world is crazy. Not so concerned about you guys. Most of my audience is military/former military/law enforcement or associated with some type of gun club. If you're not trained up, aware of your surroundings and avoiding going to crazy places then its on you.
This is about your loved ones.
We can't always be there to watch over them. They gotta get skills too. Take the time to bring the savage reality of the world to those you care about. You'll be cracking their innocence. They'll be either resistant (which will crumble after you show them vids of attacks for a couple of weeks) or border line paranoid till they're able to properly moderate themselves but the effort is worth it.
U.S. announces additional $1.7 billion in aid to Ukraine....we're not just funding the war, we're funding Ukraine's entire economy!
A reader made the statement and I noted it but kept moving, that the US wasn't just funding Ukraine's war effort but also their entire economy. He went on to talk about how they have no functioning industry, and have to fund public services, military etc.NOW - U.S. announces additional $1.7 billion in aid to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/gy3a3HjnMh
— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) July 12, 2022
In other words Ukraine is now a failed state being propped up mainly by the US but also a bit by the EU (if the war stopped right now it would be decades of re-building and monitoring by the EU/US). But what happens when the American people start looking at the pain at home? What happens when the MSM can't play the rah-rah Ukraine mode anymore because people are looking at the money being sent overseas (ONCE AGAIN) instead of invested at much needed projects at home? What happens when the new inflation data comes out Weds?
This strategy is unsustainable.
Sadly the Ukrainians don't get it but I think I do.
We're not fighting to support the Ukrainian nation. It's already dead.
This is a fight for resources and location.
Natural resources and a port on the sea. That's what this about.
If Zelensky was smart he'd step off the hawkish thing asap and try and save what he can of his country. A few more months and this thing is over except for the powers that be picking over the scraps of his nation.
Quite honestly (and I don't know this...just sense it), he'll be lucky to make it out of this mess alive. I'm catching the glint of long knives reaching for him.
Task Force 61/2: Enhancing Maritime Awareness
Note. I see NO indication that the US Navy is onboard with the Marine Corps concept. Additionally I can make a case that they're going in an entirely different direction (and so are the Chinese). Just as in WW2 I foresee (assuming there is even a conventional fight...the more I dig into that the less likely I believe it to be) a blue water fight and not one in the littoral zone. Those islands and land masses that the Marine Corps is trying to use will be bypassed and ignored (at best), quickly eradicated with long distance fires if necessary.
We're putting people where we should be sending drones. The Chinese have bodies to spare and they'll still use drones to find these forces.
This concept is dead.
Worse?
They are taking it Marine Corps wide.
The entire Marine Corps dedicated to being a recon/counter recon force?
YOU THINK THE MARINE CORPS WILL BE VIABLE WITH THIS AS ITS REASON FOR BEING?
Stop smoking crack.
ROK Marines are still about that life! Conduct AAV operations at RIMPAC
Interesting isn't it. If an amphibious assault is necessary in the Pacific then it would have to be led by the ROK Marines. They are now the most capable and flexible Marine force in that theater....with the most staying power against a peer opponent.
UK's 16th Air Assault Brigade trains with US Army 101st Air Assault
I'm seeing more and more of this and I'm looking at British Army design which convinces me that they're building themselves in such a way as to seamlessly slot into US Army formations. This teaming (assuming I'm correct) is just another nugget of information proving me correct.Ex Eagle Overlord was the first of hopefully many more exercises to be conducted at Ft. Campbell Kentucky home of the @101stAASLTDIV and 5th SFG. 15 soldiers from across @3para and @16AirAssltBCT were on the exercise. Jumping from CH47 and UH60. #readyforanything pic.twitter.com/rJUKPk0izD
— 3 PARA (@3PARA) July 12, 2022
Latest photos of Bell's 360 Invictus prototype for the Army's Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft (FARA) competition.
Here are the latest photos of Bell's 360 Invictus prototype for the Army's Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft (FARA) competition. The prototype aircraft is ~90% complete now, according to Bell pic.twitter.com/96hFBrNpkF
— Matt Beinart (@MBeinart22) July 12, 2022
Battalion Landing Team 2/5, 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit conduct live fire on Camp Schwab, Okinawa
Note. Marine Infantry is still doing Marine Infantry shit but the mission is just so ... confusing that it defies understanding. Stand-In-Force? Going Marine Corps wide and not just the Pacific? How does a modern Defense Battalion concept apply worldwide? China is the pacing threat but its a big world! How does the SIF make sense anywhere else but the Pacific? Spare me the talk about "if it works against the Chinese it'll work eveywhere". Even worse. How do you message the Stand-In-Force to the Congress, to potential recruits and to the force? It might (I say that in jest) be the right concept but they MUST get the messaging on it together. Right now its just word salad and a concept that smacks of legacy building instead of warfighting. Everyone wants to be the next Ellis but no one knows how!
Sidenote. Why are we calling them BLTs when they won't do BLT shit in the future?
China PLA amphibious infantry fighting vehicles and an air cushion landing craft march on the sea during an exercise
China PLA amphibious infantry fighting vehicles and an air cushion landing craft march on the sea during an exercise jointly organized by a brigade and an aviation brigade on June 16. Location unknown. pic.twitter.com/x5vaYKfHZS
— Ryan Chan 陳家翹 (@ryankakiuchan) July 10, 2022
D-3 EnDirect rehearsals on the Brétigny base
J-3️⃣🇫🇷 #EnDirect des répétitions sur la base de Brétigny !
— Armée de Terre (@armeedeterre) July 11, 2022
Vous l'avez sûrement déjà aperçu sur nos véhicules : le nouvel habillage brun terre de France, qui devient le fond unique et la base du nouveau camouflage de l’armée de Terre 🎨#14Juillet #SoldatsDeFrance pic.twitter.com/X2xycwzHiw
The Ukraine/Russia war has turned into a battle of logistics...or rather destroying the logistics capability of your opponent.
Interesting.Russia hits Ukrainian hangars storing U.S.-made artillery weapons https://t.co/SHCwTOygdN pic.twitter.com/D45JXikrvo
— Reuters (@Reuters) July 10, 2022
The frontlines be damned now. You have troops on both sides living in the mud and muck, many of them miserable out of their minds but no one is looking at that anymore.
Everyone is focused on the deep strikes.
Just a decade ago those strikes would have been carried out by strike fighters.
Today?
Missiles.
Its the same just a different tool being used. The weird thing is that I can see a modified civilian storage management system being brought forward to deal with these issues (which will add just another failure point to the whole thing).
Just in time resupply.
No forward supply areas. Dispersed supply points hundreds of miles behind the lines with a fleet of trucks and aircraft sent out "just in time" for fire missions to be conducted.
The amount of coordination involved will be massive. Many fire missions probably will fail due to lack of ammo.
It'll take years for both sides to perfect it and God help the artillery commander that isn't able to conduct a mission if the unit he's supporting is in heavy contact....but that's how it'll be.
The worst thing?
The US/NATO is setting this up to be a 10 year conflict. Ukraine's economy is on life support (thanks to my readers for pointing that out to me) and is being propped up by the US/EU.
Attrition warfare is a losing concept and will only bleed the Ukrainian forces and US taxpayer.
Monday, July 11, 2022
Blast from the past. The REAL Marine Corps birthday! via Soldier Systems...
via SSD
It wasn’t until July 11, 1798, that Congress established a service known as the United States Marine Corps under the command of the Navy. The act passed by the 5th Congress and signed into law by President John Adams created the nearly 900-man strong Marine Corps, which consisted of one major, four captains, 28 lieutenants, about 100 sergeants, and corporals, and more than 700 privates.
And for the next 123 years, the Marine Corps recognized its birthday as July 11. As the History Division notes, “an unidentified newspaper clipping from 1918 refers to the celebration of the 120th birthday of the Marine Corps on July 11 ‘as usual with no fuss.'”
Bonus from his newsletter. Ever wonder if all those pockets on European field jackets actually had a designated use? I have (with the Brit jacket being super popular). Well he posted some pics that give us the rundown. The Army or Marines should design a windbreaker style jacket to the same standard that can be worn in all climes. Would make first line gear more accessible and always on the body.
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Its gonna be worse than we thought....German cities are setting up central warming stations/war for the impending winter gas emergency
NEW - Cities in Germany set up central warming stations, warming rooms, and "warming islands" due to the potentially impending winter gas emergency.https://t.co/ClLQ2ul6VC
— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) July 11, 2022
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