Monday, July 24, 2023

There is no direct threat from Belarus, but we are keeping an eye on "Wagner", - Vadym Skibitsky

 

I don't get the sudden focus on Wagner. They seem like old skool shock troops more than commandos. You wonder why I'm screaming watch for a false flag? Its this type thing. First we get news that they're supposedly ready to head into Poland and now we get this from the Ukrainians. This ain't sitting right. The Iranians have additional aircraft, 3 destroyers, unknown number of soldiers in the region and an under strength MEU heading their way and nothing. A military contractor is sitting in Belarus and it seems like they want NATO to go on alert. This is just off.
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How does the Marine Littoral Regiment deter this type of "gray" behavior?

I'm not sure of the terminology used by today's Marine Corps but in FD2030, you hear alot about "deter" and "gray zone" operations.

This should be easy for the FD2030 cult.

How does the Marine Littoral Regiment deter the type of activity we're seeing in this tweet?

Quick answer.

They can't.

Deterrence doesn't work against peer adversaries.  It works against weaker nations that aren't capable of responding and if they DO respond the blowback will be so severe that its not worth it.

China doesn't have that worry.

The sooner we accept that fact the sooner we can formulate a policy that can work.

The sooner we accept that fact the sooner we can develop our military to meet the challenge.

Currently the US political establishment, the Pentagon and the Marine Corps are failing to meet that challenge.

TLDR?  All this talk of deter and gray zone activity might sound good when you're briefing generals and congress critters but it don't do a thing in the real world.  Stop beating each others meat in these staff meetings and get some real shit done.
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Open Comment Post. 24 July 23

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20 new C-130J Hercules aircraft for Australian Air Force

 

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Wagner making raids into Poland?

Sorry. I'm calling false flag on this one. 

The Poles want the fight, Washington wants the fight and London wants the fight. 

For sure Belarus DOES NOT want the fight and Russia doesn't want to take on 32 nations aligned against it. 

So why this? 

Its easy. Word has it that Washington is about to give ANOTHER 400 million dollars in aid to Ukraine. That counter offensive isn't just going bad. It's FAILED! That means they have to take some kind of action to change the trajectory of the war. This kinda thing is just the ticket to get US/NATO airpower involved (limited military action authorized by the President and NATO charter) and do what the Ukrainians couldn't. That is it would get the offensive back on track.

US foreign policy needs an intervention.

We're addicted to war.  

How long has it been since US forces were NOT involved in an action somewhere in a years time?

I love my country but damn it, political considerations and the defense industry can't be the tail that wags our foreign policy.  Saving one president's chances at re-election or some neo-con dream just ain't worth it.
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Sunday, July 23, 2023

Are Russian Lancet drones really this active? All I've been seeing are Lancet strikes today

Ok. I'm convinced. The nature of warfare (at least in this case) has changed. Can you imagine if these made it into the hands of people we fought in Iraq and Afghanistan? Air Defense is now a PRIORITY! One sandal wearing fucker with about 6 of these could decimate a Marine Rifle Company. That's bad business. We need fixes NOW!
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The DHS makes it impossible to NOT be an extremist with their classification...

 

How can you be alive and an adult and not tick off at least a couple of these boxes!
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US Air Force evacuates American citizens from the capital of Peru ????

 via Oops News

The US Air Force “quietly” carried out the evacuation of American citizens from the capital of Peru – Lima. This is reported TC “Militarist”who published a navigation map of American aviation flights from the Flightradar resource.

here 

How is it we keep making these demonstration votes or taking demonstration actions and it keeps blowing up in our faces.

Forget ideals how about we focus on our INTERESTS instead!

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Complete obliteration of a $12 million Ukrainian Krab howitzer and crew after a Lancet strike in Kharkov

Yeah. These loitering munitions are gonna be a problem.
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Sunday Awesome... A Native American was doing side quests during a REAL WAR!

 

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Saturday, July 22, 2023

You guys have to check out this Tweet. If he's even halfway right then we need to start watching the Middle East instead of Ukraine....

 

The US just sent additional aircraft and an MEU to the Middle East. The reason? Supposedly Iranian aggression. The Iranians HAVE BEEN active but no more than usual. So what gives? Lord Bebo has an idea (below) and if he's right we could be looking at a Ft Apache for our forces in Syria. That mission should have ended long ago, but now we might need to fight to maintain our foothold or be forced out. The enemy gets a vote and unfortunately unless we're at the top of our game they're gonna get to choose when they strike. Let me also hit you with this. I don't know where our forces are based in Syria and Iraq but do you remember the missile attack on one of our bases? Imagine a theater wide attack from Iran along with the explusion of our forces from "allied" states in the region? Utter chaos. Do we have a carrier in the region to cover our forces? Enough tankers to get USAF fighters from Europe and back (assume that Turkey will sit it out)? Forward deployment is idiotic in the extreme and puts your force at risk.
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Open Comment Post. 22 July 23

 



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3-to-5 years from now is the danger time when the US could face both China and Russia via Breaking Defense

 This is a must read article that highlights many of the points I've been trying to make on this blog.  /

via BD

As long as Ukraine continues as an active conflict, Russia probably does not have the capacity to pose a conventional threat to Europe. That’s the inadvertent nuclear escalation threat.

+ 

 For example, what’s the most effective way Europe can contribute to an effective carrier battle group in the Indo-Pacific theater? It’s not by putting the Charles De Gaulle or the Queen Elizabeth there, it’s by putting the Charles De Gaulle or the Queen Elizabeth in the Eastern Med or the Gulf so that the American carrier group there can go off to the Indo-Pacific.

+

 In terms of what I hear behind the scenes, essentially the American demand signal is: ‘Europe, you have to stand up and be able to backfill your own backyard so that we can handle the threat in the Indo-Pacific.’ And if you’ve got excess capacity after you do that, then great, by all means come out and help us in the Indo-Pacific.

I think there’s a frustration internally about the public, continued insistence from a lot of European countries of trying to send tiny force packages with huge logistical burdens to the Indo-Pacific as a, quote-unquote, warfighting capability.

There’s a huge amount of good political and diplomatic efforts that the European NATO nations can contribute to the Indo-Pacific, but in terms of warfighting capacity I think there’s a bit of US frustration there.

The article is kinda airpower centric BUT it touches on alot of important topics between Europe and the USA.


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Students, Transition Training Unit complete test with ACV

 

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Hundreds of Upgraded Rosomak Vehicles for the Polish Army

 

Here

This explains so much.  While the Patria AMV was in the contest to become the "ACV" (before Lockheed Martin backstabbed the hell outta them...that's the one tip I got that I didn't run that I wish I did), the base vehicle did prove to be amphibious.

But its all about the turret isn't it.

If you remember, the ACV was first sporting the larger Kongsberg turret and then one day we saw it with the micro version.

It was all about it being too heavy for water ops.

From my chair the ACV has much less freeboard than the old AAV.  I haven't seen the ACV-30 in the water but ya got to figure its gonna be worse.

The AA Bns are gonna be worth watching in the future.  They might have run down an evolutionary dead end.  Can you imagine?  An amphibious combat vehicle that needs a ship to shore connector cause one version is too heavy to swim?

Oh and make no mistake.  Its gonna weight out quick.  The dream of a ship killing Marine Corps IS an evolutionary dead end and land combat will be demanded of the Corps.  Add on armor, APS and other gear will have us with a 45 ton wheeled vehicle that can't swim in any version.

Mark my words.
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Friday, July 21, 2023

Criticism of Ukraine's "counter offensive" is reaching critical mass...

Thanks to Duke for the link! Geez. This is reaching critical mass. I wonder how long before the White House, DoD and NATO declare the offensive a failure and signal that the Ukrainians should reinforce their lines? If Poland is saying this then things aren't bad. They're horrible.
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Apparently my view of the Ukrainian Counter Offensive is becoming "common knowledge"

Hmm. I talked about the counter offensive failing and all I heard was..."its just starting"..."they haven't committed their best units"..."starve, starve, starve, FEAST". Well like the title says my view is becoming mainstream. Curious how that happens when you look at things as they are, not as you want them to be huh?
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The fawning coverage of Berger continues...check out the puff piece ...kinda makes ya nauseous

 

Boldest Commandant? Dude has wrecked the very culture of the Marine Corps and they act like he's the second coming. Making me want to throw up. Fuck him.
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China's KD-20 ALCM appears to be operational

* Supposedly extremely long ranged in the 1500 to 2000 km class. One Chinese Air Force bomber regiment would eviscerate the Stand In Force. All they could do is die loudly and proudly for the US.  ADA is being added but it lacks range and magazine capacity to prevent hits in a mass attack.  We're guaranteeing the Chinese draw first blood.

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French Army deploys its Multi-Role Griffons for the first time...

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