There are three kinds of people in Western politics right now. People who understand that Trump just blew up the post-1945 order; people who suspect he did but are hoping that “the system” will sort it out; and people going about their business in blyth ignorance, passing laws, issuing press releases, staging photo ops as if our democracy and way of life were not in severe danger.
I’ve just come from a public meeting at London's RSA with Ukraine’s ex foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba. He definitely falls into the first camp. Trump, he said, will attempt to force Ukraine to sign a deal by narrowing the timeframe in which the Zelensky administration and the Europeans can influence it. That’s what all the insults are about.
This is not just a US grab for Ukraine’s mineral wealth. The USA is in direct competition with European attempts to both develop their own AI industry, strategic geopolitical autonomy and an independent economic relationship with Ukraine. It is also an attempt at preventing Europeans from adopting the “militant democracy” defence against fascism.
As the days pass, I believe it will emerge that Trump’s goal is a strategic deal with Putin, reviving the ethno-nationalist regime as a partner in the carve up of Europe.
I also believe Europe will survive this and triumph. But we need the British and French political class to snap out of their stupor and lead. Both Keir Starmer and Emanuel Macron have stepped up to the plate well so far: Macron is talking about massive defence invesments, Starmer has promised troops to Ukraine once a deal is signed.
As a result, both are now in the crosshairs of the slander-machine run by Musk and the American far right. What’s at issue over the next week is if Trump tries to humiliate and browbeat the two nuclear-armed P5 powers into acquiescence.
I spoke to senior ex diplomats tonight who have no idea whether Trump actually has a plan or not. The Hegseth speech, wrong-headed though it was, was at least clear: it contained clear language about conventional and nuclear weapons and a clear ask - 5% defence spending - that is long overdue.
Few people in the loop now claim to know whether that speech represents the foreign policy of the Trump administration, or whether the policy is just being improvised by billionaire dimwits.
So this is much worse than the 1930s. In the 1930s there was a clear threat; we knew what it wanted; we could prioritise fighting Germany over fighting Japan; we had time. And the USA was isolationist but not led by venal idiots.
Also, the USA in the 1930s – Joseph P. Kennedy notwithstanding – was not routinely trying to disrupt European anti-fascism. Today the American far right is openly meddling in European politics.
What can we do? The number one thing I want to see happen is European politicians levelling with their electorates: hour by hour, day by day. Trump's decision to blow up the Western alliance is an attack on all of us. It is undermining our armed forces, our national security, our economic investment in the construction of a stable democracy and partner in Ukraine.
Of course, we need to use diplomacy – but neither Putin or Trump is using diplomacy. And at some point Western governments need to use raw power to carve out a position in the negotiations.
Kuleba was clear tonight – he thinks Trump will force through a deal, which freezes the war. But it cannot happen without Europe and Ukraine, and the EU, UK and Ukraine united around the same goals would a powerful factor in events, especially because Trump is torching the USA’s soft power.
The UK now has to rearm. Not to 3% of GDP but more like 5 or 6%, scalable beyond that. That means borrowing to invest. Do it right and the economy will be booming in 18 months time, and Reform UK will look like a sorry bunch of Putinist puppets, closer to the enemy than the Union flag.
We are going to need tactical nuclear weapons, because we can no longer rely on the USA. And yes, that’s a mindbender that I wish we didn’t have to contemplate but without a bigger range of escalation options we lose our freedom of action in the world.
That was one of the biggest takeaways from Kuleba’s talk: don’t ever think it won’t happen to you.
And here’s the biggest. He was asked how the war will end. He said: one of us disappears. It’s existential for Putin in the long run. As in the 2021 essay, he cannot see Ukraine as a European and democratic country. He has to destroy it – and thus Ukraine and the European democracies are fated to destroy the Putin regime.
In the coming days I expect all the domestic forces platonically aligned to Putin and Trump’s war aims to start mobilising: Reform are conflicted – they don’t know how to play this; but the reliable Stalinists of the far left are already on board with Trump’s vision for a Ukrainian sell out.
In response, I’ll be on the streets tomorrow, protesting outside the Russian Embassy tomorrow.
But the real action has to happen inside the heads of a few tens of thousands of politically active people in Britain – in Labour, the Tories, Libdems, even the Greens if they want to live in a continent where Net Zero actually matters. And Fleet Street.
The basic question is: which side are you on? Putin, Musk, Trump and the sieg-heiling Bannon? Or European democracy. If you’ve ever set foot in the Louvre, the Uffizi or the Reina Sofia the answer should be pretty damn clear.
Trump and Putin colluding to destroy the West as a concept. We have two leaders, in Macron and Starmer, who have stepped up to the plate and need support - plus an admirable set of smaller nations who know which side they're on. If they come back from Washington with a trail of insults and nothing else, we then we will have to draw sombre conclusions: nuclear rearmament to protect ourselves; probably the nuclear rearmament of Ukraine, too. And active destabilisation of the Putin regime with no holds barred.
You didn’t come into politics to do this? You want to stick to the 1001 just causes and campaigns that win you kudos with voters? Tough.
Trump and Putin have called time on all that. February 2025 is the turning point after which how you responded to the big political decisions of our era is what you’re going to be judged on.
