Ukraine news. Desertion confirmed & Russia to hold large military exercise on border.

via Cir.ca

Ukraine said it was working through diplomatic channels to secure the return of 311 troops it says crossed into Russia in the early morning hours to avoid fighting with separatists. Russia said the number of Ukrainian forces totaled 438, and that they were seeking asylum.

And then this via Reuters.

Russia announced military exercises near the border with Ukraine on Monday in a show of strength as the Ukrainian army recaptured more territory from pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country.
The Russian air force said more than 100 aircraft, including fighter jets and bombers, were taking part in the manoeuvres this week in the central and western military districts.
The move could alarm Western powers which have accused Russia of beefing up its troops along its border with Ukraine and arming the rebels in eastern Ukraine, although Moscow denies the accusations.

Plain talk.

The massive desertion of Ukrainian soldiers is confirmed.  No excuses, no spin, the Ukrainian Army had about a battalion of troops run for the hills.

Next this weak brinkmanship that the West is trying on the Russian bear is just making him angry.

I don't worry about a military confrontation but these sanctions can get out of hand and plunge Europe, Russia and the rest of the world into a global recession that will make 2009 look like the good ole' days.

Eyes are back on Ukraine...although China is making a bit of noise in the South China Sea....

China can build whatever it wants on its islands in the South China Sea, a senior Chinese official said on Monday, rejecting proposals ahead of a key regional meeting to freeze any activity that may raise tensions in disputed waters there.
Southeast Asian foreign ministers this week hold security talks with counterparts, including those from the United States and China, in Myanmar, with escalating tensions over maritime disputes in Asia likely to be a major issue.
The Philippines will propose a freeze on all activity that raises tension in disputed waters in the South China Sea as part of a three-part plan at the ASEAN Regional Forum meeting, Manila's foreign minister said last week.
The United States, a close ally and former colonial power in the Philippines, has also called on all parties to halt activity in the disputed sea to ease tension.

I have never seen the world more volatile than it is right now.  This business will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it...

The US Army is going below 490,000. Numbers don't lie.

via Defense One.

The Army will lay off about 500 majors as part of its ongoing downsizing effort, the service has announced.
The military branch used involuntary separation boards to determine to determine where the number of soldiers exceeded future force requirements. The Army announced earlier this yearit planned to select from a pool of 19,000 captains and majors to reduce the size of its force in the post-war era. The service laid off 1,100 captains earlier this summer.

Read the whole story but the numbers don't lie.  The US Army is going below 490,000.

Consider the trajectory of the draw down.  It hasn't been a ramp.  Its been a cliff.  Additionally they aren't going after leadership.  They're going after future leaders or "seed corn".  Many Soldiers will tell me that this is a natural part of Army life...after a war there is a draw down.  I'm telling them that this is way too steep for the target numbers.  Sequestration is being factored in as we talk.  420,000 is the new target that the Army is reaching ... they just haven't told the rank and file yet. 

Why did the Israeli commando units suffer heavy losses?

via Jerusalem Online.

Operation "Protective Edge" is not officially over, however it can already be said that one of the current rotation of fighting's bolt characteristics is the large number of deaths and injuries which the commando battalions of the infantry corps suffered.
In comparison, the number of dead warriors from the division commando battalions during "Protective Edge" out of the total IDF soldiers killed is four times larger than the same ratio is he Second Lebanon War. When looking at absolute numbers, in spite of the fact that the number of warriors killed in the Second Lebanon War is almost twice the number of those killed in the current operation, the number of losses which the commando battalions suffered now is larger.
According to an officer of one of the brigade commando units, who participated in combat, this isn’t a coincidence. The large number of deaths derives from the characteristics of the combat in Operation "Protective Edge".

This story is remarkably light on details but I recommend you read it anyway.

My takeaway?

SOCOM better pay attention.  The enemy has studied the US playbook and is adapting.  The Raid, Raid and nothing but Raids mentality has been teaching and the terrorists have been learning.

I've feared a false target that would draw SOCOM into doing a big raid and nothing being there but terrorists with heavy guns/missiles/RPGs/mortars spoiling for a fight...if they're smart enough and can do it in a place where fear of civilian casualties push a restrictive ROE then it could be a blood bath with Rangers/MARSOC/Special Forces/SEALs going in too light to fight and unable to call in supporting fires.

Its gonna happen.  I hope not but I really believe it will.  

Indonesia Marine Corps' mechanized forces at RIMPAC 2014.

 

It was a classic helicopter ambush.

via War is Boring.

The operation kicked off according to plan. The CV-22s—which can fly like regular planes and land like helicopters—arrived on schedule at the United Nations compound in Bor, where the evacuees were sheltering.
The pilots from the 8th Special Operations Squadron then flew around the immediate area to check for any hostile fighters. The tiltrotors were about to land when someone attacked.
“The barrage of gunfire and RPGs from the ground hit the formation 119 times,” the 1st Special Operations Wing news report explains. In the end, all three Ospreys suffered severe damaged. Gunfire and shrapnel hit four special operators aboard the planes.
Three of the wounded troops were “in critical condition” and apparently could have died as the planes rushed to Entebbe airport in neighboring Uganda.

Read the whole story but lets call this what it is...a classic helicopter ambush.

The enemy either had info or reacted to hearing the incoming aircraft, and then lit them up with RPGs and rifle fire.

For all the talk about the V-22 being inherently superior to helicopters I'm just not seeing it.  The Osprey is particularly vulnerable in the landing zone, both during infil/exfil.  It isn't particularly maneuverable when it enters its landing phase and that is a HUGE weakness...oh and these CV-22s got hit with RPGs and small arms...what happens when they run against SAMs and large caliber anti-air guns? 

Almost a Battalion of Kiev troops desert?

Thanks for the link Dwi...

via ITASS-TASS

ROSTOV-ON-DON, August 04. /ITAR-TASS/. More than 400 Ukrainian military have crossed into Russia overnight to Monday asking for asylum, spokesman for the Russian Border Department for the Rostov Region Vassily Malayev told ITAR-TASS on Monday.
“At night, 438 Ukrainian military asked Russian border guards for asylum. Upon the decision of the Russian Border Service, the regional border department opened a humanitarian corridor letting those asking for asylum into Russia,” Malayev said, adding that there were 164 Ukrainian border guards among them.

Can you hide the fact that almost a Battalion of men deserted?  Can you spin it?

This war has headed into a propaganda/spin/lie phase.

Who knows what the actual truth is?

The world is burning news. Azerbaijan shelling Armenia...ISIS captures dam...

Thanks Dima for the link!

via RU.OXA.AZ

URGENT: Azerbaijan began shelling the positions of Armenians of rocket launchers
Enemy carries heavy losses.
The Azerbaijani army is shooting at Armenian fighting positions of small arms and artillery: grenade launchers, mortars, anti-aircraft installations, thermobaric grenades.
As the Oxu.Az citing Haqqin.Az , stated in an emergency statement from the Ministry of Defense.
According to the enemy suffers great losses.

According to the statement, in recent days the situation on the contact line of Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan escalated dramatically. Azerbaijani armed forces do not stop trying to penetrate the Armenian positions.
Also frequent shelling of border settlements. Day by day the number of losses of the parties.
Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Armenia calls on Azerbaijan to stabilize the situation.

We're looking at the most global instability I've ever seen in my lifetime.  The world is literally spinning out of control.

All it will take is one global shock (made easier due to the trade system setup) and this entire tinderbox will go up in flames.

I'm moving up my prediction.  I think we're going to see a major regional war in 1 to 5 years (versus my previous 5-10) unless something drastic happens to change current conditions.

UPDATE:  Thanks to Requiem for this news...via ZeroHedge.

With the world's attention focused on the ongoing death and destruction in Gaza most have forgotten that just two months ago a vicious Al-Qaeda spinoff, after taking over the north of Iraq and a third of Syria's territory including its oil production facilities, proclaimed the creation of an Islamic State caliphate a few hundred kilometers north of Baghdad. The reason why the ISIS story fell off the front pages is that while the jihadists were consolidating their power in the caliphate region, it was believed that they have no chance of advancing onto Baghdad and the energy-rich Iraq regions south of Baghdad (and thus have little impact on the price of Brent). And yet there was one major "weakest link" - recall that a month ago we reported that "Baghdad May Lose Its Drinking Water As ISIS Approaches Dam", an outcome which would put Iraq's capital, and its 8 million residents, at the mercy of ISIS.
According to Al Arabia it is this "weakest link" that is now in play after ISIS took over Iraq's biggest dam unopposed by Kurdish fighters, who also lost three towns and an oilfield on Sunday to the Sunni militant group, witnesses said cited by Reuters.

The part of this story that makes me say what the fuck is that the Kurds lost three towns and an oilfield.

We will see heavy fighting in Iraq.  Its almost a given....what I didn't see happening is that the Kurds would lose ground to these thugs.

Change is chaos.  We're seeing change in the world so why are we surprised that its chaotic?