EFV dead? Its your fault Marine Corps!

If this story from DoDBuzz is true...then the EFV is heading toward the chopping blocks.

Headquarters Marine Corps, the EFV program office and the Commandant have only one place to look when they're trying to find the victim villain in this saga....THE FREAKING MIRROR!

How can a service who's reason for being is Amphibious Assault have allowed this most important of weapon systems to be delayed over and over again....allowed it to go over budget over and over again...and expect it to survive?

I don't have a clue.  But several factors led to this...

1.  A lack of urgency. 

During the day's of the Bush administration, the taps were turned on for defense spending.  Of all the services, only the US Army seemed ready to exploit the opportunity this provided.  The Marine Corps was caught flat footed and instead of pushing through with evolutionary capabilities chose instead to push for risky, costly revolutionary ones instead.  This caused delay, delay costs time, time costs money and money is part of the reason this system got killed.

2.  Marine Air screwed Marine Ground.

Our air side has lived high on the hog and got too large a share of the budget.  How can I say this you ask?  Because the USMC is due to receive the AH-1Z, UH-1Y, CH-53K, MV-22 and the F-35B.  What new gear has the ground side received?  The MTVR, LVRS, M-777, and refurbished M1 Abrams done over as Assault Breacher Vehicles.  Oh and we're also due to get our hands on the IAR...a rifle that the Grunts don't want, that the Gunners love and the Infantry Community is still debating.

3.  Think Tank Follies.

Every new administration has a favorite think tank.  I have my own (yes Dr. Thompson, you're my hero and the Lexington Institute rocks) but even hero's sometimes get it wrong.  Thompson has advocated (during the Bush administrations tenure) for an emphasis on transforming the Marine Corps into more of a Commando type force.  The new administration doesn't have a plan but have harped on silly notions of Theater Entry as opposed to Amphibious Assault.  A later post will cover my issues with both concepts but suffice it to say that the latter concept (in vogue now) is aimed only at the Marine Corps and has at its roots an effort to weaken the need for assault from the sea (amphibious lift) and the tools to carry it out (the EFV).

While the efforts by think tanks are mainly fodder for Congressional Aides, they do invoke discussion, debate and ultimately influence budget decisions.

4.  FAILURE TO TELL THE MARINE CORPS STORY!

This is our biggest failure.

This is an indication that our culture is weakening.

This shows that we have not remembered our history...we've forgotten former (budget) battles.

Every article discussing the Marine Corps in magazines and newspapers starts off with..."after 10 years of warfare the Marine Corps has become a second Army!"

NONSENSE!  And the saddest part of this is that those very words originated with our former Commandant!  

Last year was a busy, almost chaotic year for Marine Forces worldwide.  Action and activity in Haiti, Iraq, Afghanistan...  Training local forces in Europe, Africa, Asia... Providing forces afloat in the Pacific and the Atlantic... And finally maintaining skills in Bridgeport, 29 Palms and Ft. A.P. Hill.

Second land Army my ass.  But the story isn't being told and Headquarters Marine Corps is sipping coffee instead of ringing telephones.

Finally.

If the EFV is indeed on the chopping block then we've got to get a replacement for the AAV up and running with the speed of a loving husband getting his pregnant wife to the hospital while she's in the middle of labor.

General Dynamics has had its bite at the apple.  They didn't get it done.  Too bad so sad.  Pack your bags.  We might give you another chance in about 10 years...but right now, its time to ring BAE's phone...have them do to the AAV platform that they did with the CV-90 Armadillo and simply get a major upgrade on evolutionary systems.

A more hydrodynamic form.  Upgraded engines.  A remote weapon station (with the ATK cannon).  Improved water jets....

Its all doable, and we should be able to have a fully amphibious...swift (is 15 knots possible with upgraded water jets?...not as fast as the EFV but possible), mobile (able to maintain pace with M1's cross country), hi tech and mine resistant vehicle on the drawing boards by the end of the year....ready for demonstration by the middle of next year and ready for production by the year after that.

URGENCY, 

EVOLUTION NOT REVOLUTION 

AND PROPER COMMUNICATION WITH THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ABOUT WHAT THE MARINE CORPS IS DOING AND WHAT THE MARINE CORPS NEEDS TO DO ITS MISSION.  


That's how you win budget fights...how did we forget that?


Required Reading...The History Of Marine Corps Aviation 1912-1985 emphasis on the acquisition of the Harrier AV-8A and the 'warfare' necessary to make it happen...

Lockheed Martin's Joint Air to Ground Missile

J-20 Concept Art.

SinoDefense and SinoDefense Forum have been posting CGI of the new J-20.  These are the best of what I've seen...from where I'm sitting it appears that the Key Publishing Forum and SinoDefense Forum are the best sites for breaking info on this airplane.  Check them both out.

LHA-6. No well deck? No problem!

The title is definitely tongue in cheek.  Perhaps the Brits came up with a suitable work around...the stern gate.

But here's a primer on the LHA-6 gate issues (note the reference to the failed operations of the LPH during the 1970's) ...

via National Defense Magazine (its an old article but definitely worth the read)...

An aviation-centric amphibious ship is not a new concept. In the late 1950s, the Navy built a class of amphibious assault ships called Landing Platform Helicopters, or LPH. These vessels carried Marines and rotory-wing aircraft. The only way to leave the ship was by air.

“That turned out to be largely a failed experiment,” says Work. In operations off the coast of Lebanon in the late 1970s, the ships’ helicopters encountered a significant air threat that resulted in the Marines being transferred to another amphibious ship to go ashore by sea.

“What we learned about the LPH is that we needed a well deck,” says Marine Col. Robert Coates, director of the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force’s training and exercise group.

and this...oh and note...that's the same Robert Work that's now Under Secretary of the Navy...

The aviation-centric design of the LHA replacement — or LHA(R) — also has raised questions about its long term usefulness. Considering that Marines require heavy trucks and armored vehicles once they reach the shore, most of that equipment can only be transported by hovercraft, not by helicopters.

“It’s been a long-running debate, and it’s still not settled,” says Robert Work, a naval analyst with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington, D.C. “There are a lot of questions on LHA(R). Will it become the standard, or will it become only a niche capability?”

Historic Pic of the day. Jan 3, 2011.

via NavSource.org

The amphibious assault ships of Commander, Task Force Fifty One (CTF-51) come together in an unprecedented formation during operations in the North Arabian Gulf. This marked the first time that six large deck amphibious ships from the East and West coasts have deployed together in one area of operation. Led by the flag ship USS Tarawa (LHA-1), the ships are (from left to right):
USS Bonhomme Richard (LHD-6),
USS Kearsarge (LHD-3),
USS Bataan (LHD-5),
USS Saipan (LHA-2), and
USS Boxer (LHD-4).
CTF-51 led Navy amphibious forces in the Arabian Gulf region during Operation Iraqi Freedom. The 32 ships of CTF-51 composed the largest amphibious force assembled since the Inchon landing, during the Korean War. Operation Iraqi Freedom is the multinational coalition effort to liberate the Iraqi people and end the regime of Saddam Hussein.
US Navy photo # 030420-N-2515C-091 North Arabian Gulf (Apr. 20, 2003) by PH2 Larry S. Carlson.
US Navy photo # 030420-N-7128D-011 North Arabian Gulf (Apr. 20, 2003) by PHC Tom Daily.

F-35 AF4's first flight.

The fourth conventional takeoff and landing variant, AF-3, completed its first flight on 30 December 2010. Piloted by Lockheed Martin test pilot Bill Gigliotti, AF-4 took off from NAS Fort Worth JRB, Texas. AF-4 is the tenth F-35 to fly and the third test jet to fly with the next-generation avionics package that will populate all operational F-35s. The successful flight was the final test mission of 2010 for the Joint Strike Fighter program, which logged 410 flights for the year.

Aircraft retired too soon...

With the UK's retirement of the Harrier, its time to take a look back in history at other aircraft that were retired before their time.  What do I mean by that?  I mean airplanes that filled an essential niche' role and with reasonable upgrades could still be flying and fighting...

1.  Harrier GR9.  The Royal Navy definitely got the short straw with the move to withdraw the Harrier from service.  To be honest, from an outsiders perspective, it appears that the Royal Air Force had a plan to destroy the Navy Air Arm and almost pulled it off.  Only the Navy's willingness to sell its soul to get a carrier kept it in the aviation game.  The Harrier's will be missed and I have doubts that the Royal Air Force will be able to find bases close enough to areas of future operations to be able to help.

2.  SEPECAT Jaguar.  Probably one of the best CAS aircraft of the past century, this little work horse was able to do the Gripen's vaunted road thing before it was cool.  While simple, it was robust and with modern targeting pods and engines it would have been a credible and cheap small wars workhorse.

3.  OV-10D Bronco. Photo is of an OV-10 operating from the USS Nassau.  This was an ideal airplane that would excel in its new role of V-22 escort.  Harriers and F-35's might be too fast but the OV-10 would keep pace, bring an awesome amount of firepower and could operate off the America Class LHD with ease.  Some might not recognize it, but the OV-10 is already being missed!

4.  MH-53M Pave Low III.  I'm a fan of the V-22 in general but one thing is certain.  Special Ops needs all the lift it can manage.  The MH-53 was still a viable airplane and would be a valuable addition to the war in Afghanistan.  Its long range, superior avionics and toughness are exactly what the Special Ops community need right now.

5.  A-6E Intruder II.  An upgraded version was offered that had improved avionics, engines and a redone wing.  Already a long range striker, the A-6F would have been the bomb truck of choice in the war on terror. 

Taiwan and F-35B's...

Via the Alert 5 from the Taipei Times...read the whole thing here...

In what has caused a major stir within the Pentagon, Beijing Internet censors earlier this week allowed high-resolution photographs of the Chengdu Aircraft Corp stealth fighter to be published for the first time.
“For Taiwan, this means that even a sale of the latest versions of the Lockheed Martin F-16 will only provide a brief period of technical parity with the People’s Liberation Army,” Rick Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center in Washington, told the Taipei Times.
Fisher said it was now possible China could deploy significant numbers of the fifth-generation fighters — codenamed the Chengdu J-20 — within 10 years.
“There is now even greater reason for Taiwan to consider shifting its air defense resources to the more survivable short take-off fifth-generation F-35B, with modifications that increase its air combat potential,” he said. “Today, it is doubly tragic for Taiwan that Washington does not appear to be willing to sell either fighter to Taipei. Such a lack of resolve by Washington will only hasten the military confrontation it has successfully deterred since the Korean War.”
Taiwan is urgently pressing US President Barack Obama to sell it 66 advanced versions of the F-16, but with Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) scheduled to visit Washington later this month, a sale is unlikely to be approved anytime soon.
Credible sources claim China could build at least 300 J-20s.
Aviation Week and Space Technology reported that China has begun flight-testing the J-20, which puts it only a few years behind the troubled F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, which is being developed by the US and a coalition of countries.
While it is possible that the newly released photographs of the J-20 are fakes, most US analysts believe them to be the real thing.
One military analyst said the plane had a chiseled front--section, triangular wings, all-moving tail-planes and seemed to combine the front fuselage of the US’ F-22 with the back half of the Russian T-50 stealth prototype.
“The J-20’s appearance could signal a big step forward for the Chinese air force, which to date relies mostly on airplanes bought from Russia or reverse--engineered from Russian or Israeli designs,” an analyst said.
Judging from the photographs, the J-20 is at least 21m from nose to tail, which means it would have a lower “supercruise” performance and agility than the F-22. However, with larger weapon bays and more fuel, it would have a longer range and carry more arms.
US military sources told the Taipei Times that China may be getting Russian help with the J-20 and that Moscow may be supplying 14.5 tonne thrust 117S engines for the plane, which is expected to double as a bomber.
Fisher said the J-20 could “supercruise,” or fly supersonically, for extended periods without using fuel-guzzling afterburners.
One commentator, writing on the Aviation Week and Space Technology Web site, said the new plane was “something to hang out at 50,000 feet [15.2km] over the Taiwan Strait with a large downward looking radar and serve up a large payload of AAM’s [air-to-air missiles] at anything underneath.”

Just a couple of notes...

First I haven't heard a peep out of the Pentagon.  How this writer has gathered that its causing a stir is beyond me.  Don't get me wrong, I hope it has caused a stir.

On a side note, isn't it interesting that the Secretary of Defense is due to visit China on Jan 9 and a couple of weeks before he arrives we get word of a new Stealth Fighter and that the Anti Ship Ballistic Missile is up and running?

I don't know what kind of game China is playing but it definitely appears to be hardball.

Next note is this...I am a fan of the Taiwanese military.  But the government and the population is thought to have been thoroughly compromised with many citizens wanting reunification.  Why would we sell a piece of high tech gear to a country that will probably be absorbed by a rival without a shot being fired.

Lastly.  Its becoming apparent to all the 'analyst' out there that F-35B is survivable even though our bases are not.

Every base in the Pacific is vulnerable to conventional ballistic missiles.  Only the "B" will be able to get into the air if a runway is taken out.

Future prediction.  The USAF will be buying "B"s before this saga is over with!