Just need to take a moment to sort this out. I keep hearing this argument from some of my readers...
Many are conflating the Cause and Effect here:
1) The sanctions are not a root cause of anything. The sanctions are an effect, a response to the root cause—the murderous invasion of a sovereign nation by a mental defective and dumbass.
2) The ones who need to worry most about the impact of the sanctions are the Russian people.
Sounds good don't it?
Problem is simple though. It just don't add up.
The reality is that the sanctions that have been placed on Russia (and potentially...almost without a doubt) are gonna plunge the entire globe into a world wide recession.
So you say?
If that's your response then you're not paying attention. I talk about knock on effects constantly and in this case the sanctions were applied in an almost reflexive manner.
Its quite obvious that they weren't thought thru.
Why?
Because of those knock on effects I talk about.
* Food shortages?
This alone will cause many nations to destabilize. It EASILY could lead to pop up wars all over the globe. Starvation is coming and from this one issue alone you could see more than double, perhaps even quadruple the death toll in Ukraine.
* Sky high fuel prices?
Again, another destabilizing force. The US will see midterms this fall and you'll see a govt "fall" (the Dems are gonna get smashed) on this issue alone.
* Energy issues (related to fuel prices).
Warnings are going out in the US that we could see blackouts this summer. Not a big deal? If you think that then you don't know society. Lights out in a major city? You'll see major crime. Additionally if its hot you're gonna see tempers spike which will lead to heinous fights and probably killings.
* Supply chain issues.
The supply chain was already struggling after being artificially shut down. Now you have a struggling supply chain trying to adapt to this new sanctions regime, flex itself into a new shape to accommodate things and you have more strain.
* Inflation.
This is parts of all of the above. Scarcity means higher prices. In the US the Dems just got passed a minimum wage increase. Inflation ate that up and those same people are now worse off than before the raise (some say the raise played a part...I don't know). What I do know is that this is another destabilizing item.
Russia invaded Ukraine.
No doubt.
We had a choice in how we responded.
The sad reality is that sanctions of this type and magnitude would in a NORMAL world indicate that the US was engaged in hostilities with Russia (NATO/EU too).
We're acting as if we're not.
The American people (Europeans either) have been propagandized that we should support Ukraine but haven't been told that they're gonna have to pay a price for the TYPE of support we're giving.
The bigger problem.
The pain is just beginning. There will be no controlled landing on this one.
