Thursday, December 01, 2022

China to have 1500 nukes by 2035. The drumbeat of war can no longer be ignored or discounted...

 via Reuters

China will likely have a stockpile of 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035 if it continues with its current nuclear buildup pace, according to a report released by the Pentagon on Tuesday.

The figure underscores mounting U.S. concerns about China's intentions for its expanding nuclear arsenal, even though the projections do not suggest China is accelerating the pace of its already-brisk warhead development.

Here 

Let me get this out the way.  About half (maybe more) will say I'm a conspiracy theorist on this.  SO BE IT!

I can hear the drumbeat of war and it can no longer be discounted or ignored.

Do you realize that this is the FOURTH (4th) story this week that points to China having a numerical superiority to our most vaunted parts of our military?

Airpower.

China has more J-20's than we have F-22's.

Sea Power.

China will have 400 ships by 2025 (battle force ships which doesn't include their Naval Militia or Coast Guard).

Nukes.

China will have 1500 by 2035.

I don't know what's going on in Europe (I'm sure the focus is on Ukraine/Russia conflict), but here in the US, if you follow the news then I think its pretty undeniable that they're prepping  citizens for war.

We have a problem though.

Our forces aren't ready.  Our homeland isn't ready.  Our industry isn't ready.  Our leadership isn't ready.

It's almost like everyone can see the train coming but no one is setup to deal with the crash/clash.

The reality is stark but I've talked about it enough on this blog.

1.  America can't be world police.  We are going to have make hard choices about who we decide to "lend" our forces to.  Certain allies must be told the bad news that they're gonna have to muddle thru without US troops on the ground, air or at sea.

2.  We've got to get a civil defense program going.  We have to harden the homeland against Chinese saboteurs/commandos and fifth columnist.

3.  We need to start today hunting down spies, limiting the attendance of foreign students (Chinese) in our places of higher education and carefully monitor Chinese nationals in all areas of research/manufacturing.

4.  We've got to get serious about drones.  Air and sea that have the ability to multiply combat power.  Recon is no longer enough. We need missile truck drones in the air and at sea that can quickly add to our available firepower WITHOUT worrying about the loss of the air vehicle or boat.

5.  The culture war in the military needs to end.  It has to be about warfighting all the time.  We don't have the luxury of niceties.  We're rapidly approaching nut crunching time.

6.  Combatant Commanders need to be put in a cage.  Drawing forces for "reassurance" missions or useless exercises should be a thing of the past.  

7.  Increase the defense budget but WASTE has to be stomped out with religious fervor.  We should pivot back to evolutionary development with leap ahead tech coming only when its READY!

I'm sure there is more but one other thing that I haven't posted about is still happening.

China is still penetrating Taiwan airspace on an almost daily basis. It sucks to say it but those airmen have to be getting worn down by all the alerts.

A few more months and they'll stop sending up aircraft.

Be advised ya'll.

I think we've entered the time of MAX vulnerability for the US. Like a dragon stalking a wounded animal, China is circling us and assessing whether we've become weak enough to be taken easily.

A President dealing with Alzheimers, a Congress and people that are hopelessly divided and a raging war in Europe, all coupled with a limited attention span by the average American citizen and even I can sense our weakness.

The Pentagon updated their estimate of when China could strike to within the next two years?

What do you think....Summer of 2024?  Right in the middle of our presidential contest, the war lingering on in Europe and probably some other unforeseen drama happening at home?

Yeah.

I give it another year max.

eFP Battle Group Poland Closes the Gap during Bull Run Exercise 2022

 

eFP Battle Group Poland Closes the Gap during Bull Run Exercise 2022 Rehearsal

 

NATO enhanced Forward Presence Battle Group Poland Soldiers assigned to the 3rd Battalion, 8th Cavalry Regiment, 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division (3-1 ABCT) operationally controlled by the 1st Infantry Division (1 ID), The Royal Lancers, Prince of Whales Troop, and 20th Mechanized Brigade conduct amphibious assault operations during the Bull Run training exercise at Bemowo Piskie, Poland, Nov. 24, 2022. The 20th Mechanized Brigade is proudly working alongside the 1st Infantry Division, NATO allies and regional security partners to provide combat-credible forces to V Corps, under America's forward deployed corps in Europe. (U.S. Army National Guard photo by Sgt. Gavin K. Ching)

eFP Battle Group Poland Closes the Gap during Bull Run Exercise 2022

 

NATO enhanced Forward Presence Battle Group Poland Soldiers assigned to the 3rd Battalion, 8th Cavalry Regiment, 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division (3-1 ABCT) operationally controlled by the 1st Infantry Division (1 ID), The Royal Lancers, Prince of Whales Troop, and 20th Mechanized Brigade conduct amphibious assault operations during the Bull Run training exercise at Bemowo Piskie, Poland, Nov. 24, 2022. The 20th Mechanized Brigade is proudly working alongside the 1st ID, NATO allies and regional security partners to provide combat-credible forces to V Corps, under America's forward deployed corps in Europe. (U.S. Army National Guard photo by Sgt. Gavin K. Ching)

Wednesday, November 30, 2022

"The Liberty Lifter seaplane should be able to carry at least two U.S. Marine Corps Amphibious Combat Vehicles"

 via MilitaryAerospace.com

The Liberty Lifter seaplane should be able to take off and land in waves from four to eight feet high; fly in ground effect above waves from 8 to 13 feet high; fly at altitudes from ground effect to 10,000 feet, and operate for four to six weeks at a time carrying payloads of at least 90 tons.

On-water amphibious payload deployment and retrieval should be via nose and tail ramps; the seaplane should be able to carry at least two U.S. Marine Corps Amphibious Combat Vehicles, and cargo in 20-foot container units.

Here

Now this is DARPA HARD!  I wonder if they just throw shit at the wall or if they actually think they can achieve some of this stuff? 

Tuesday, November 29, 2022

I'm just the messenger...don't get mad at me German citizens!

 

More news on that non-existant energy crisis! I'm so glad I have readers that tell me how this is just bullshit.

China has more J-20's than we have F-22's?

This is concerning.

If I recall correctly the F-22 is slated to phase out in the middle or end of the 2030's (if not sooner...not sure).

The F-35 is set for an EXPENSIVE, INTENSIVE, and COSTLY upgrade to give us what was promised 15 years ago.

This also doesn't include the lightweight portion of China's fighter fleet which is waiting in the wings to go into production, not to mention the legacy fighters they already have.

My question.

Have we reached a stalemate with regard to airpower?  Even if we haven't, we KNOW that China has REGIONAL superiority because the US military is strung out all over the planet REASSURING ALLIES that should be doing it for themselves.

We are in a hurtlocker.

Even if we were able to afford a MASSIVE increase in defense spending (and we can't), then we would have issues in getting enough people in uniform to MAN the equipment (notice I didn't say equip the man...those days are over).

Our only way out of this mess is to push AI/wingman concept and do it poste haste.

If we don't then we've already lost the air war.

Public Service Announcement. GET OUT OF BIG CITIES NOW!

 

By stating that we would come to the defense of Taiwan did we lose a chance to pause/limit China's power?

 

Interesting.

We removed any doubt that the Chinese might have had. With the Marine Corps and the rest of the US military clearly stating that China was the pacing threat and then Biden stating clearly that we would defend China did we lose a chance to pause/limit China's power?

To be more clear.

By our actions did we put our bases in the region on the target list and broadened a potential war into a regional one instead of simply limited to one island off the coast of China?

Does our STRATEGY automatically make this a regional war and does our basing concepts risk dragging other countries into the fight?

Did the actions of the Pentagon guarantee a fight?

I don't know.  I do know that we saw indications that this fight was coming as far back as 2014 in open media and it was probably known in the early 2000's.

My worry is that the average military enthusiast, citizen and probably even law maker doesn't realize just how disruptive and dangerous an open war between the US and China could be.

Additionally I think that strikes on the US and Chinese homeland could lead to unforeseen consequences that could forever change history in a terrible way.

I leave you with this.

What will the US public mood be if the Chinese were able to sink an aircraft carrier on the high seas with 5K Sailors lost?

What will the Chinese public mood be if the US were able to sink an aircraft carrier on the high seas with 5K Sailors lost.

I don't think people are properly considering the dangers of this thing.  If we're gonna do it (or if its preordained at this time) then we need to harden up quick, put back into place Civil Defense and drastically up military spending.

If it isn't preordained then we need to try and find an off ramp. Diplomacy can be your friend and save lives.

Who would you list as our top allies?

 I did a blog post where I stated that Ukraine was not an ally but rather a dependent (and they'll continue to be for at least 20 years unless we moderate our spending and get them on a different path).

It got me to thinking.

Who would you list as the USA's top allies (not in any particular order).

1.  Brits.

They're annoying at times.  You always get the impression that they think they're smarting than you are.  Constantly underfunded but damn hard fighters.  Better to have them with us than against us.

2.  Aussies.

Good fighters, great drinkers, always up for a good dustup.  Funniest fuckers I ever met.  Keep the beer flowing and you just point them at the enemy and you can trust that sector is secured.

3. S. Koreans.

These little bastards are hard as fuck!  Do painful shit just for fun (guess they're proving to their ancestors that they're worthy). For some strange reason they love the cold and cold water gives them woodies.  Awesome fighters...just keep the Japanese on the other side of the base...probably theater and you're good to go.

4.  French.

Kinda like the Brits but with a more rigid military code.  They love specialized units and are on a modernization kick. Give them wine, that weird hard bread they like and an afternoon nap and they're good to go.  Keep an eye on them when it comes to operations out of theater.  They get hit and they're gonna go rabid.

5. The Netherlands.

Tallest son of a bitches I ever saw in my life.  I'm running 6'2" and I ended looking up to lots of them (pretty damn unnerving too).  Love the cold.  Love the mountains.  Love to hike.  If we're in their environment then we let them lead the show.  Going big on modernization too.  

Not listed but considering circumstances I think are worthy would include....Italy, Spain, Poland (with reservation...I believe they have an agenda), Singapore, Brazil.

Honorable mention.  I know everyone is gonna ask about Israel. The problem is that unless we're acting in their defense, an operation out of area comes with unfortunate political baggage.

Additionally the focus of that force is solely on nation state defense (quite laudable considering the folly of intervention we've experience over the past 40 years).