Think Defence took me to task for my thinking that the Falklands was endangered in this post.
Take the time to read his entire article and then read the comments section.
Then read this from DefenceTalk...
A South American trading bloc that includes Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay agreed Tuesday to close its ports to ships flying the flag of the disputed Falkland Islands, Uruguay's president said.The presidents of the Mercosur countries agreed at a summit here that ships flying the Falklands flag "should not dock in Mercosur ports, and if that were to happen, they should not be accepted in another Mercosur port," Uruguay's President Jose Mujica said.A statement issued at the end of the summit said member countries would adopt "all measures that can be put in place to impede the entry to its ports of ships that fly the illegal flag of the Malvinas Islands."Argentina's President Cristina Kirchner, who took over the presidency of the trade bloc from Mujica, thanked her fellow presidents for the show of support for Buenos Aires in its dispute with Britain over the South Atlantic archipelago.Those that don't see the clouds or hear the drumbeats are fooling themselves. Argentina has just set the stage diplomatically for the South American "federation" to unite behind a particular cause.
Unless the British respond appropriately then this is going to be a mission accomplished without a shot being fired.
Yep, there are dark clouds on the horizon, but there is no storm. Global Sercuirty has the Argentian Navy at exactly one Fast Troop Transport for all it's amphibious warfare capability. That's not going to be enough to land any meaningful force on the Islands. The Argentians have a navy, but no amphibious capability which is the key to taking the Falklands.
ReplyDeletedo you need an amphibious capability for a target that close to the mainland? i mean seriously you can just grab boats and load them up with troops for the ride over.
ReplyDeleteadditionally you're forgetting about the 'federation'...while i doubt that Brazil would become involved militarily, i'm sure that some of the other S. American countries would lend some type of support such as transports, boats, helicopters etc...
You can rail all you want about this, but hell will freeze over before Mercosur does anything of military value together. This is just them being obstructionist to make a point, there is no real military threat.
ReplyDeleteand you can continue to ignore the rumbles....time will tell who's right but this should appear to be ominous to any observer....at least if they're being honest with themselves.
ReplyDeleteSolomon, there are ominous rumblings, yes. However, the Argentians can't be a serious threat until they fix their amphibious capability. You cannot just load troops onto fishing boats and go in the direction of the Falklands because, 1) it will be a turkey shoot for the Brits, 2) The troops will arrive at different times, the assault will be disorganized and easy to destroy. Furthermore, the Argeninans will not have any air-cover, since the Falklands are 250nm from the mainland, with a round trip of more than 500nm there will not much loiter time for any Argeninan aircraft.
ReplyDeleteAmphibious capacity is only necessary when entering a contested environment, otherwise civilian vessels work just fine.
ReplyDeleteThe Argentinians are doing are very good job in the political arena isolating Britain from most South American countries, and from its closest ally - America. Remember, it was only a few months ago that Sec Clinton offered to help broker talks about the sovereignty of the Malvinas. Yes she used the Argentinian name and explicitely suggests sovereignty was in question.
Today PM Cameron is extraordinarily weak after using all his political capitol to pull Britain out of the Euro group suicide pact. Should Europe actually implode due to a Euro fail Britain assets and focus will be on Europe. They have already made public that the MoD is planning to use military assets to rescue citizens caught in the expected civil turmoil.
Should the Argentinians choose that moment to send a "Peace Flotilla" to the Falklands does anyone believe the British SSN on patrol will sink them, the Typhoons on station will missile and strafe them, or the Royal Marines will engage when they arrive? Argentina could land thousands and take territory while Downing Street tries to decide what to do. Does anyone believe President Obama's administration will strongly support Britain? And once the Argentinian Marines are there good luck getting rid of them.
I think we're underestimating the potential for action here. Especially as Argentina's lady leader is facing the same domestic scenario the Military Junta was all those years ago.
uh correction. everyone except you and i are underestimating the potential!
ReplyDeletevery nice analysis!
At this point Argentina is lacking various forces needed to invade the Falklands specifically fighters and transport aircraft. That said the UK might want to think about increasing the number of Typhoon fighters they base there.
ReplyDeleteThe RN has very few SSN's. Assuming one is always stationed in the South Atlantic is problematic.
If Argentina wanted to go round 2 over the Falklands they'd either have to spend a few years preparing and buying new aircraft and ships or they'd have to carefully plan and practice a bolt from the blue attack with a significant margin of risk given any early warning to the Falklands Typhoon flight. One really decisive move would be a special forces attack aimed at those Typhoon's however.