Well so much for a passive Europe. It seems like the Brits and France are getting ready to do things...We've all heard about the French strikes against Islamist in Africa and now we hear this ...
A series of military options are being actively considered as the war of words over the islands intensifies.I don't quite know what to make of it all.
It is understood that additional troops, another warship and extra RAF Typhoon combat aircraft could be dispatched to the region ahead of the March referendum on the Falkland Islands’ future.
The options being proposed by planners at the Permanent Joint Headquarters in Northwood, north-west London are also said to include a “show of force” such as conducting naval exercises in the South Atlantic.
These could involve the deployment of the Royal Navy’s Response Task Force Group, a flotilla comprising destroyers, a frigate, a submarine and commandos.
Alternatives include deploying elements of the Army’s 16 Air Assault Brigade — the airborne task force which includes members of the Parachute Regiment — which has just completed a series of demanding exercises in Spain preparing for “general war”.
The current administration is clearly signalling a desire to slash defense spending and at the same time the UK and France are gearing up.
2013 will certainly not be boring. You can't feel it? It seems like the world is ready to pop. This will be interesting!
Happened today: http://vimeo.com/57270462
ReplyDelete(France supporting the legitimate Malian government against extremist rebels)
I'd say that maybe the intent of the British budget cuts have been misinterpreted. Yes it is a cut, which we don't want to see, and yes it has made capability suffer, but I'd say that it isn't generally about becoming passive, the cuts were only ever in line with cuts happening across the board in the UK with almost all departments, on top of years of financial mismanagement that needed sorting out. From 2015 the MOD is actually supposed to be getting a 1% budget yearly increase to 2020.
ReplyDeleteWhatever happens, the UK and France are always the most willing to act in Europe, and thanks to our history and legacies, this can happen anywhere in the world. Both have been involved in actions and still have interests in Africa, the Middle East, South America/South Atlantic and East Asia. One thing you might be interested in Sol is that the British Chief of Defence Staff recently implied that the UK would be routinely deploying and training in Brigade strength in SE Asia alongside other FPDA Countries (probably based out of Brunei).
Sol,
ReplyDeleteYou should know by now mate that there is Europe and there is Britain & France. Most people from Britain and France would identify themselves as British or French way before they say European.
As for Mali, former French colony with very close ties still to France, that’s why the French are helping out. We would do the same if this was happening in say Ghana and have done in the past in Sierra Leone. The French by the looks of things are doing their own version of Operation Palliser.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Palliser
With the regard to the Falkland’s, nothing in theory should come of it and it’s always good to have a bit of general war training. But if old Christina wants to have a go by all means let her try. Now im not saying that Britain should be complacent or that another conflict would be a good thing (it wouldn’t) but as it stands the Argentine Air Force currently has around 50 fast jets and I don’t know what state they are in. We currently have 4x Typhoons and if say a Type 45 was present that’s makes for a total of 100 ish AAM and SAM being fired at the oncoming argentine attackers in the first wave (then a quick rearm at Mount Pleasant and Mare harbour for round 2). And as for naval threats we usually either have a sub or have one nearby to dispatch to the AO. So to Christina I say:
“...you've got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?”
it would have to be done covertly if they try and do it at all. one intriguing "scenario" would be if they could martial other S. American countries to help out. even with Brazil helping i don't like the odds for them.
Deletequite honestly a properly equipped Type 45 with a little (and i mean little) help from a sub is really all the defense that the islands would need.
it could literally stand up to the air and naval power of Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela. my only real question would be Venezuela's SU-30 in a mythical air vs. sea fight with the Type 45. theoretically it should be able possibly launch glide bombs outside the range of the 45's defenses at supersonic speed and escape before it could be effectively engaged. how accurate it would be is beyond me but its theoretically possible.
Just an update Sol, but looks like we are getting involved now:
Deletehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20999533
My guess is we will help them transport things like attack helicopters with our C-17’s. Hopefully this might give an extra little push for 9th RAF C-17 to be ordered if we can find the spare change ( we do have 2 military serial numbers currently left unallocated for C-17’s), since our C-17 are being very well used on the UK-Afghanistan route.
The Brazilians wouldn't get involved. They may pay lip service to Argentina's claim, but they also aren't stupid enough to intervene or burn that many bridges as it becomes a more powerful global actor. They'd try to stay responsible. The Venezuelans getting involved would be possible if Chavez survives, or another equally insane leader takes over, but would probably be enough to force the US to act in some way (lets face it under the current leadership they probably wouldn't do a damn thing if Argentina went for it) so it'd probably help Britain out somewhat.
ReplyDeleteBrazils problem is it cant beat the UK long term.
ReplyDeleteIf they get involved, the UK can (or threaten to) keep a submarine in the South Atlantic with the express purpose of sinking the Sau Paulo and its escorts the next time they put to sea.
What does brazil do then?
They cant counter even our old boats.
Only put to sea under US protection?
2 years down the line, the SP and its escorts are lost with all hands, its options are whine to the UN and....., well, nothing.
The reason why Brazil would never get punchy with the UK over the Falklands is actually very simple.
ReplyDeleteFirst, they dont want to provide Argentina with access to a potential shitload of oil that would allow Argentina to challenge their economic regional dominance
Second, they aren't stupid and know that aggression would mean the little thing called the Lisbon Treaty coming into play and their growing economy cut off from one of its largest potential markets.