Is the A400M entering the dreaded Death Spiral?

via Marianne.net (you should subscribe...this guy is good).

The White Paper on Defence provides an air force equipped with " fifty tactical transport aircraft . " This format should be reflected in the next Act military program, a reduction in orders for the Airbus A400M, the first of which must be delivered before the summer. The 2008 White Paper spoke of "about 70 transport aircraft."

According to our information, we today evokes a number between 35 and 40 aircraft, while the target was up at 50. The difference, to achieve "fifty" is composed of the last C-130 Transall and especially C-130 Hercules. These lighter, will remain in effect essential for special forces, the means must be strengthened.'s Casa, lighter transport aircraft are not taken into account in the calculation of tactical transport aircraft (ATT). This reduction in the volume of orders, and perhaps the pace of delivery will cause intensive discussions with the manufacturer Airbus Military and, inevitably, lead to an increase in the price of each unit, which was already far from good market.

I haven't been paying attention but things don't look too good for this program.

If I remember correctly every participating nation has reduced its order and for an airplane that costs almost as much as a C-17 but can carry less that ain't good.

Add to it the fact that C-130's can be had at almost fire sale prices and the C-17 is scrambling for orders I'd say if it isn't in a death spiral, it's got to be close.