When it comes to Japan building a Marine Corps (my opinion) or at the very least developing a credible amphibious force (same thing as a Marine Corps except in name) we know a few things.
They have LCACs, LPDs, LHAs (and developing bigger ones), they're looking at V-22s and they have or in the process of acquiring AAVs.
As far as the AAVs are concerned what we don't know is telling. Specifically since the deal with SAMSUNG Techwin Heavy Industries fell through what does that mean for Japanese procurement of the vehicle.
* Are they going to source the necessary vehicles from Marine Corps inventory? If so then things are extremely bleak for a bunch of Marines and they don't even know it. That would seem to indicate that the drawdown will be deep. No one is talking about it but the threat of involuntary separations hasn't gone away. Want a kick in the teeth. Be the Marine that has deployed a couple of times to Afghanistan and then is notified that for the good of the service he's being released.
*New builds from BAE? That would be a win but I wonder if it would be cost effective for the company. Tooling up to deliver what...100 or so vehicles? I don't know if that would appeal to company execs.
*Licensed production of the vehicles by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries? Seems like a credible option but you have to wonder. The Japanese are well known for paying higher prices than necessary to produce vehicles at home. Doing it in this case would seem wise and it would give them a design base to further develop the class beyond what it is now. The Japanese were once world leaders in the development of amphibious vehicles. With things heating up in the Pacific this would give them a leg up in that arena again...especially if they relax export rules on weaponry.
It sucks but I'm betting on pink slips for Marines and sourcing from Marine Corps inventory. It kills two birds with one stone. The Marine Corps rids itself of unwanted manpower/vehicles and the Japanese get their vehicles at an accelerated rate.
Marines will take the metaphorical bullet again.
