Is a low cost fighter an impossibility? I'm begining to think so. The results of the S. Korean fighter contest will give us a clue to the answer..via Reuters.
(Reuters) - South Korea has extended bidding on a $7.3 billion (8.3 trillion won) fighter jet project after a second round of bidding ended on Friday with three aviation makers offering prices above the estimated cost, South Korea's news agency said.This should be somewhat concerning for F-35 supporters. The 2017-2021 time period is the sweet spot (at least I thought it was) regarding production versus cost...that should be the lowest cost and highest production time frame.
South Korea opened the bidding on June 18 to import the country's 60 next-generation fighter jets between 2017 and 2021 and has since carried out about 30 bidding sessions, yet the offers were over the budget, South Korea's Yonhap News Agency said citing the state's Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) officials.
Lockheed Martin Corp's F-35A, Boeing Co's F-15SE and EADS' Eurofighter Typhoon are in the running to win the fighter competition.
"The bidding ended, and an additional bidding will resume on July 2," said Baek Yoon-hyeong, spokesman for the defence acquisition agency, according to Yonhap.
The project, called F-X, is South Korea's largest arms import ever. (Reporting By Jane Chung; Editing by Michael Perry)
If the F-35 isn't blowing the F-15 and Eurofighter out during that time frame then its really time to rethink this drink.
From what I understand of how the Marine Corps is approaching its procurement trainwreck, its going to finish its major buys of the MV-22, AH-1Z and UH-1Y. Next on its list of must do's is the AAV upgrade supposedly to start in 2017. Then its on to the F-35 gobbling up the budget in the 2016-2025 time frame. During this same time you'll see the CH-53K in some type of production (low rate?) and if the Commandant is to be believed we'll begin buying the Amphibious Combat Vehicle (I don't believe him by the way).
The main trouble with all this is that he is basically structuring things to where even if the next guy disagrees, he'll be locked into this course of action. Which essentially means that even if the next guy wants to augment the AAV with a Marine Personnel Carrier, he won't be able to.
We're going aviation and we're screwed. They have no plan. No good plan anyway...they've chopped at previous planning and are now lost in the woods.
What is the difference between the Commandant and a LT straight out of TBS? At least the LT would know that he was headed in the wrong direction.
The reason why all three F-X bids are over budget is that it was set unrealistically low to begin with. I'll have to do some serious digging, but it is telling that even the F-15SE is over the budget considering that South Korea has bought two rounds of F-15Ks and should have had a good handle on their cost.
ReplyDeleteno what is actually telling is that you have 3 airplane manufacturers all desperate to sell their airplanes and none were willing to practically give away the airplanes to make the deal. or even if they did offer rock bottom prices that the S. Koreans weren't able to recognize it (more toward your point). i don't quite know what the deal is with this contest but it bears watching.
DeleteThe Typhoon's Tranche 3 upgrade is still underway, and the Silent Eagle hasn't even flown yet (not in final form, anyway). Meanwhile pinning a price to the F-35 is like nailing water to the wall. Nobody has a clue how much its going to cost until they've committed too much to back out.
ReplyDeleteThere's probably a lot of shrugging shoulders in Seoul right now, wondering why its so hard to get a straight forward answer on unit price and maintenance costs.
Better to buy more F-15Ks to replace F-4/F-5. Then wait until KF-X to replace remaining legacy fighters. F-35 is too expensive, EF-2000 not good enough, F-15SE waste of money.
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