I believe we've reached (in the common vernacular...especially inside the beltway) a tipping point when it comes to the Pacific.
The approach that the US Navy is taking versus that of the Chinese is telling.
We (America) is doing the "politically correct" thing. Partnership missions. Military to military contact with China. Expressing the desire for greater visibility on defense systems and spending. Encouraging our allies to buy our equipment for greater interoperability....
China however is doing something else entirely. Over the past year their were dust ups between China and Japan, China and the Philippines, China and India...They've been hyper aggressive in their cyber espionage and reportedly have stolen the plans for our most important programs. And they've made alliances with everyone from Australia to Iraq and Iran, to various African nations for natural resources.
The US is involved in an untested, perhaps useless exercise in partnership missions while China doggedly attempts to increase its strategic reach, solidify its supply of natural resources and increase the effectiveness of its military.
Now tell me which approach do you think will be successful.
Any war with China would crash world economy... even if US isn't in.
ReplyDeleteYou see what happend in greece when economy crashs : democracy fall...
Police torture, strike forbidden, TV/radio shut down, riots...
Thats why, I think, US governement try to ally every country against china, to persuade them they have more to lost than to win in war.
Politics thinks that war without ground combat is limited, like they thinked during cold war that tactical nukes will not provoque the use of strategic ones...
...that why i think they push all armyu to Air centric..
ReplyDeletemake that same statement (in your first comment) but with a caveat. interconnected economies will crash if their is a breakout of large scale war.
Deletei would say that the Chinese are the closest in the world to having a self contained economy. they depend on the outside world for resources to produce their goods but thats about it. the rest of the world would be screwed but China could muddle on.
want to know what the Chinese are starting to build like madmen??? nuclear reactors. not for military reasons but because they'll get clean energy without the mess and smog of coal.
China is getting close to being able to either blackmail the rest of the world to get what it wants or...if it waits just another 10 or so years it can take it and their won't be a thing the West can do about it.
I aggre with you with the statement that their economy is closed, auto-sufficient except for energy, but their economy is also dependant of exportation. their communist party is full of billionar ( like MAO DAUGHTER !!! ), who billions will disapear in case of war.
DeleteAnd if their exportation goes down, workless and hungy people will riots.
By the way i think they play poker : I'm happy their president is not Kim jong il.
The world didn't saw URSS fighting directly over USA, but collateal wars.
I think we go to this scenario, in Iran.
( this seems to already happend in syria, where UE-USA-Sunnits make war against Russia-China-Chiits)
The biggest weakness in China's economic ability is the sea. PRoC needs the sea to import almost everything. PRoC needs the sea to EXPORT their goods. PRoC needs the latter MORE THAN the former. If their finished goods can't leave the country then there's going to be a major ripple effect. Look what happened during the melamite scandal in their food? The Chinese government HAD TO do something.
DeleteIf China's economy fails, everyone fails. This is a known fact that every nation understands all too well. Blame greedy politicians who started the ball rolling of sending manufacturing jobs into China. China is "too big to fail". China mustn't fail. And PRoC Politburo knows this very much.
Sol, call me "bullshit" but the root of all the problem as to the strength of PLA lies in the amount of money the US buys goods labelled "Made in China". Do you agree with this?
If you do agree, look at the map. Look SOUTH of the American continent. South American countries are begging for jobs. Soon Cuba will join the race. The move by some American companies to start moving manufacturing jobs inshore is very, very, very slow.
They(China), spend one quarter compared to the US on it's military, they have only one, second hand carrier..no threat to the west. Any aggressive act by China to any other nation would result in the west joining in..they could not hope to win, both militarily and economically.
ReplyDeleteclassic normalcy bias. why do you think that it will be a case of the "west" fighting China.
Deletethe generals have done their job well. Americans, or rather some westerners have been lulled into the false belief that our forces are superior and just showing up will win.
Who would China target? ...Japan?...Singapore?...South Korea?. All countries that trade with western nations. Do you honestly think that America would let China get away with aggression? You would retaliate, as you do and the rest of us would fall into line...as we do? Do not worry too much, sounds like McCain wants in on Syria anyway as the US is running out of wars!!
DeleteTaiwan is a lost cause. Her economy is highly integrated with mainland China and as a result highly dependent upon China’s goodwill. Almost every Taiwanese millionaire and billionaire has residence or business presence in China and I’m pretty much sure they as well as the majority of Taiwanese people desire to maintain the status quo, not to provoking China into military action. Chinese leadership is perfectly aware of this fact, heck why kill your golden goose.
ReplyDeleteUS used to overwhelm her opponents with her industrial might. I just don’t see that will still be the case if US and China duke it out in conventional style warfare. Chinese industrial capability is way too much for us now. It’s no use. We either have to maintain our technical edge or we stop pretending to be the great peace guarantor. Chinese shipbuilding dwarfs USA, she can churn out carriers or any other type ships at a much faster pace. The tricky part is carrier operation integration plus supporting systems working in a coherent way. Striping out of its electronic and other sub systems, carrier by itself is just a big ship hull. Once the Chinese overcomes the initial learning curve, watch out, game over for us. Barring some catastrophic events or disasters, by now China’s accent is irreversible. We need to be realistic about this and re-consider ourselves to a more modest position on the global stage.
you're spot on but China has a few achilles heels...
Delete1. population. its an advantage if you're an expanding power. if you want peaceful expansion its a difficult balancing act between 'manifest destiny' and war fever.
2. communism. they might have cobbled together a bit of free market and communism but they are hardly compatible. eventually there will come a time when one or the other asserts itself. that will be a time of internal strife. how they handle that will determine their future.
3. resources. by 2020 if we have the right people in office we can be a net oil exporter. perhaps the worlds biggest oil exporter. China is in a hurtlocker resource wise and they can be held over the proverbial barrel because of it.
4. natural development. sooner or later another country will come along and do to China what they did to us. become a cheaper producer of goods. if its because of energy costs to transport goods, or simply because we have more energy cheaper here, China will suffer eventually because its backwards economically. it can't sustain its tremendous growth. when that moderates they'll be easy to knockoff.
of course all those factors could lead to war..possibly a nuclear war if they feel threatened enough.
the Soviet Union was pussy compared to what China will be.
US military is kidding herself with this Pacific Pivot crap. PR at its finest moment. ASB is a good concept but you need hardware to back it up. I don’t see the navy is hurrying to ramp up sub production (The most critical platform in defeating A2/AD). Air Force killed off its stealth drone program and now expects to fly the Reaper in highly contested environment? The new bomber is still on the drawing board, and F-35 development is a joke. Who knows when it will be fully operational and ready for combat, maybe never. Chinese is investing in long range missile, cyber attack, and counter space while maintaining ground modernization. A comprehensive military buildup. What are we doing in response? Partnership building, non-discriminative sequester, military to military dialog, wow. Limited and precious resources are wasted on programs like LCS, JHSV, non-stealth drones, and GCV…
ReplyDeletewell said...especially the pivot to the Pacific being political!
DeleteHo hum though I would weigh in here,
ReplyDeleteThe key problem I see facing the USA and Europe, albeit excluding Germany, is the amount of debt that has been accumulated comparative to the amount of progress. If the debt had been spent building infrastructure developing technologies to a further extent then it would be acceptable use of borrowing. If money had been spent building the latest generation of shipyards with high levels of automation the US Navy could be churning out dozens of ships per year at very little actual cost with crew costs being offset against gains from automation. The same goes for here in the UK, if we had invested we would have had 2 shipyards and a much larger navy with the scope for improved export orders. We also would have got on with building our much debated high speed rail network and made more progress on renewables alas ineffective welfare spending seems to be the usual budget priority.
Speaking as a European one thing that I feel seems to be holding back is the reluctance for true healthcare and welfare reform all you have to do is look at the spending and GDP figures. The US already spends huge amounts of money on welfare and Medicaid with seemingly a less efficient impact.
As for the Pacific pivot I really think that the US Military should get out of Okinawa as it’s a sitting duck if things warmed up, Okinawa should be a staging post for intelligence flights at most. Having thousands of US personnel and Citizens within easy striking distance of China just seems somewhat crazy to me. I’ve also mentioned similar with US forces Europe large chunks of it should be relocated to CONUS with components relocated to Australia forces with units from Okinawa possibly relocated to the Philippines. If there ever was a conflict with China vs the US, Japan and South Korea outside of Japan and Korea the US would be lucky to hold the second island chain with at most limited sorties further North.
However when it is all said and done the USA is in what I would perceive to be an incredibly lucky position with resources of land, people and freedom for ideas to become reality. The drawbridge could be pulled up and the USA could go into Isolationist mode albeit most people seem to realise the best way to create wealth is to trade.
Apologies for waffling on.
They have already telegraphed their first target:
ReplyDeleteIf they can compromise our National Laboratories and most important defense contractors projects to conduct cyber espionage, then they can shut down our electrical grid, screw with our financial systems, disrupt airports/rail networks, etc.
even if they want to limit it to just military targets, if they can keep a Navy ship from receiving its beans/butter/bullets before putting to sea OR keep a ships targeting systems from working, it creates 'friction' for us before we're even in shooting range.
We're so in denial our military can't even admit, at least in public, that cyber espionage has deeply compromised our military's capabilities.
If the Chinese are willing to weather the bad PR, it can easily seize 'rocks' in the Senkaku or Spratly, reinforce them and wait out the US and the UN until they cave.
If China decides to strike selectively in ways that cripple our economy or military, without actually killing us, and can show that it can turn the off/on button, the rest of the world isn't going to come to our aid. While people who are political/military/economic leaders might understand that we've suffered a cyber Pearl Harbor, convincing the public or our allies that a war is underway or is worth seeing thru to the end when it has cost them nothing, would be difficult.
This is especially true when our own government starts 'spying' on its own citizens and creating a credibility gap that compromises its own legitimacy in the eyes of its citizens. "You mean we should risk our lives and wealth to fight China because it crashed the Nimitz's computer network? Forget that shit, that's on you dummies".
Seriously would you be able to convince a bunch of Millennials to fight a war for the political establishment of this country based on something that doesn't directly affect them?
Don't believe me? Imagine this in your Facebook account or email inbox:"
"DEAR CITIZENS OF THE USA, your government has accused us unjustly of attacking it. We have no wish to attack you, we simply want to live in peace. Your politicians are on the take and have presided over the dismantling of the manufacturing sector of our country. The resulting implosion of the middle-class over the past 30 years has weakened us and your politicians continue to openly collect "contributions" from the same people who did the damage.
To show you our commitment to peace, we are giving each of you $5000 and depositing it directly in your bank account. What has your gov't done for you lately? Recorded your phone calls and emails? Why does your own gov't distrust you?
Sincerely, the Peace Loving People of China"
You check your bank account and sure enough, there's an extra $5000 in it.
See how easy this is? Imagine how easy it would be for someone to create division between the people and the political establishment in a time of war.
there is 32 trillion dollars in overseas (Cayman Islands, Lichtenstein, etc.) accounts of individuals, criminals and corporations. If the Chinese stole a fraction from dug cartels or corporations that paid zero % income tax and 'redistributed' it, what would those individuals and corporations be able to do about it? what could governments do about it?
tanks, planes, ship, drones parked, no shots fired, nobody dead.
scary, huh?
To me, the most pressing issue is massive outsourcing of US manufacturing jobs/capability to developing nations. Germany fares better than her EU compatriots because of her strong manufacturing sector and export driven economy. Military strength is built upon sound economic foundation. Unless we can get our economy going again, I’m afraid we will be stuck in this downward spiral. Real economic growth comes from wealth creations, the stuff you invent and produce for consumption, not some artificial boost through government investment or central bank debt buy back or stock market gain. US used to have a protective/ mercantilism
ReplyDeletecentric policy regarding trade and industry, we caught up and passed UK and rest of Europe by outperforming them in the manufacturing, service economy came in later which ironically started the gradual erosion of US economy.
Nailed it!
DeleteOur political/economic system has bought into the myth that creating wealth is the same as building the economy or creating jobs.
Most of our economic growth has been in finance aka creating hokey mechanisms like derivatives, destroying the Glass-Steagall act, etc., not in manufacturing.
People manufacture goods and are paid wages, those wages are spent to stimulate the economy and also collected to support tax base for investments in infrastructure, education, etc.
But we've bought into free-marketeering, the idea that offshoring factories/jobs and open trade barriers is good for our economy. We stop manufacturing in the US, we stop jobs from being created here and stimulating the economy.
As long as Nike, GM, Apple, etc. are paying for politicians to preserve the status quo and 'Fair Trade', manufacturing will remain abroad.
You know what. I bet we can do the same sh*t back at China, screwing up her infrastructure, financial section, communication, etc. Every military capability is a double edged sword. Take space as example, last year Chinese had more satellite launches than US. Soon or later her military will be heavily dependent on her space assets as well. We have same if not greater counter space ability, to f*ck their birds up in the sky. Same goes with their carrier and big surface combatants. When China builds a world class military she will be facing the same dilemma as we are dealing now, only the role players are reversed, aha!
ReplyDeleteShort of a miraculous change in our country we are well and truly screwed. 16 trillion in debt and an apathetic population mean we have a snowball's chance in hell of beating the Chicomms. Now, had we realized that the Cold War didn't end with the dissolution of the USSR and we had maintained our military at late-80s levels we could beat the Chinese anywhere anytime. Also, since when was the J-20 a carrier bird? Did I miss something big recently?
ReplyDeleteThe vision of the liberal democrats is the United States world position prior to world war two. This vision allows China to take over as dominate world power to run the world as they see fit while the United States is turned into a massive welfare state where it's citizens are taught to obey from birth anyone from the Government. The elites plan on keeping their toys while the peons go back to some form of agrarian society, think Pol Pot of the Khmer rouge fame.
ReplyDeleteThe libs see China as a grace of humanitarian ideals from an old country that is considered wiser these same libs see the United States as the worlds biggest threat and problem. Taking the US out of the running entirely as a threat would bring world peace in their belief.
At best the US would split the Pacific in half, China has their side the US has ours split in the middle by Hawaii which will be the new UN thingy for the Pacific rim or arc of the sun type alignment or at worst we lose the Pacific entirely and the West Coast states which I see aligning with the Pacific rim nations.
The impression I get is a vision of the future where the United States are broken up into smaller nations that will mean world peace in the libs eyes forever.
What ever, Obama does not plan on fighting China unless it's a no win war that ends as a negotiated peace where both sides gain and lose. Except of course the US loses what it already gained many years ago and China gains what the US gives up by not defending.
This would happen of course in the middle of Obama's third term as POTUS.
Recall Obama's speeches and talks about a "Post America" world, he and his cabal plan this nations dissolution consider it pay back for winning the cold war, Bush and slavery as well as all the other sins laid at white America's feet.
I bet somewhere in the libs plans is the final solution for the problem white's in this nation. Conservatives, Straight, Christian gun owners.
I pray it won't happen but my ability to be hopeful and all changey is busted.