Tuesday, November 12, 2013

F-35. Reality finally strikes. Fewer to be purchased?

via Daytona Daily News.
WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE —
The Air Force will have fewer airmen and civilian employees and entire fleets of aircraft may be pulled out of the air because of sequestration reductions, the service’s top civilian leader said.
If the sequestered numbers are the new normal, we’re too big of an Air Force,” said Acting Secretary of the Air Force Eric Fanning. “The military is too big for the budget so we’ll have to reshape, resize.”
In an exclusive interview with the Dayton Daily News, Fanning said sequestration has impacted “everything” in the service branch. The Air Force may buy fewer fifth generation F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, and pilots may be grounded periodically two to three months in rolling rotations of a tiered-readiness model if the sequester persists, he said. The automatic cuts amount to roughly 10 percent reductions a year for a decade.
And that ladies and gentlemen is how a politician rolls out a cut in procurement.

Not with bang, but with a whispered statement.

We "might" buy fewer....

Once again the punch is being telegraphed.  150K or fewer Marines is a done deal.  398K Army.  And now we know that the F-35 is in a full fledged death spiral due to its largest customer having to cut orders.

My thoughts that the S. Korean, Japanese (and I'm willing to bet the full court press is on the Singaporeans) and Turkish orders were being pursued with gusto was because the US purchase was going to be lower and they needed to get those sales just to maintain numbers is now proven correct.

The problem now?  Costs will increase, numbers further reduced by allies and the biggest ponzi scheme in history will become apparent to all...Not just the early adopters of the idea, not the late arrivers like myself, but to everyone. 

8 comments :

  1. Oh God, Singapore. Did you hear about the press claiming on March 26 that Singapore was going to announce an order of 12 F-35s within ten days? Here's a link: http://www.govconwire.com/2013/03/report-singapore-to-announce-lockheed-f-35-jet-buy/

    Those ten days have long since come an gone and Singapore is still silent. The LM press in Singapore is practically trying to put words in their mouth to claim that they have the orders, but the desperation is obvious.

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  2. Singapore and the F-35B Joint Strike Fighter 18 Oct 2013 Mike Yeo
    "Indications are that Singapore may go ahead with the purchase of the JSF. That would be a game-changer for its operational capabilities.

    In a wide-ranging interview with the Defense Writers Group in late July, General Herbert J. "Hawk" Carlisle was asked about Singapore’s interest in the Lockheed-Martin F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program and if an initial sale had been made. He had this to say:

    “I talked to their CDF (Singapore’s Chief of Defence Force Lieutenant-General Ng) Chee Meng. I was just in Singapore. Singapore’s decided to buy the B model, the VSTOL variant to begin with. But I don’t know where they’re at in putting it into their budget. I know that’s a decision that’s been made and that’s why they’re part of the program, but I don’t know where they’re at in putting that in the budget”..."
    http://thediplomat.com/2013/10/18/singapore-and-the-f-35b-joint-strike-fighter/?all=true
    _______________

    Defense Writers Group: A Project of the Center for Media & Security, New York & Washington, D.C.
    Interview: General Herbert J. “Hawk” Carlisle Commander, Pacific Air Forces 29 July 2013
    “DWG:...Then you also mentioned Singapore. We reported and heard that they are, they’re part of the F-35 program already, but that there was some movement to kind of complete an initial sale. Can you give us an update on —

    General Carlisle: I talked to their CDF [Chief of Defense Force], Chee Meng. I was just in Singapore. Singapore’s decided to buy the B model, the VSTOL variant to begin with. But I don’t know where they’re at in putting it into their budget. I know that’s a decision that’s been made and that’s why they’re part of the program, but I don’t know where they’re at in putting that in the budget....” page 13 of 18
    http://www.airforcemag.com/DWG/Documents/2013/July%202013/072913Carlisle.pdf (200Kb)

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    Replies
    1. I can't help but wonder though if that's simply our press putting words in the mouth of Singapore in order for F-35 advocates to be able to say to congress that they have the orders. You've seen the article I've posted above this one.

      I simply won't believe it until I see a formal or public statement from the Singaporean government. I really don't trust any American source in Singapore right now.

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  3. Hey, Thanksgiving is right around the corner, can we kill this turkey and take out any of the good stuff? I hear it has a great engine.

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  4. http://news.usni.org/2013/11/12/navy-shifted-plans-acquire-tougher-uclass

    This is about the Navy Plan B, of the UCLASS. The Navy is stating it wants to buy 24 by 2020 which is when it expects the F-35C to hit IOC. If the Navy sticks with the original "easy" specs it has a chance to succeed. If they stay with the new "tougher" specs this thing will become a debacle that will remind everyone of how smoothly the F-35C is going.

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  5. The boys over on the BD blog also predict the Singaporeans will be buying the -B model, but won't provide a source. But one look at the board of contributors sorta explains the optimism.

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  6. He's preparing for the the National Defense Authorization Act fight in the Congress.

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  7. In 2008, USAF plans and programs people, those that actually tell the boss what he can buy each year with the available money, stated that when F-35 full-rate production kicked started in 2014, the service could only afford 48 F-35s per year. Down from the 2006 plan of 80 F-35s per year. Down from the original plan of 110 per year. None of that has stopped the top USAF boss from lying in front of Congress each year when explaining the F-35.

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