via NYTimes.
In this case the loss of another chunk of Ukraine.
The second act has begun and the US/EU is helpless to stop it. You're seeing an uprising by the people against the "newly installed" US/EU backed govt. The weak sauce of economic sanctions is not working and if fully implemented would probably plunge Europe into a serious recession if not depression.
Ukraine is gone.
Time to decide how many US Army Brigades we'll support in Europe and send them to Poland, Romania and Georgia.
MOSCOW — Under the attentive eye of Russian state television, several hundred pro-Russian demonstrators in the city of Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine, declared on Monday that they were forming an independent republic and urged President Vladimir V. Putin to send troops to the region as a peacekeeping force, even though there was no imminent threat to peace.What happens when you make a bluff and the other guy calls you on it?
The actions in Donetsk and two other main cities in eastern Ukraine, which included demands for a referendum on seceding from Ukraine and joining Russia, seemed an effort by the activists to mimic some of the events that preceded Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea. However, there were no immediate indications that the Kremlin was receptive to the pleas.
In this case the loss of another chunk of Ukraine.
The second act has begun and the US/EU is helpless to stop it. You're seeing an uprising by the people against the "newly installed" US/EU backed govt. The weak sauce of economic sanctions is not working and if fully implemented would probably plunge Europe into a serious recession if not depression.
Ukraine is gone.
Time to decide how many US Army Brigades we'll support in Europe and send them to Poland, Romania and Georgia.
The U.S. starts this with an insurgent U.S. State Department and other helpers posing as NGOs, etc and then cries because of unintended consequences. Helping to remove an elected government is only good when the U.S. tries to do it. And of course, Russia's back yard is none of our business.
ReplyDeletewell said. i've really been trying to give State the benefit of the doubt but they've been making mistake after mistake after mistake. no strategy, just college theory in a brutally realistic world.
Deleteyou can't be a dreamer and make policy.
That is indeed the case ,mainstream media fails to report Maidan was not a homegrown project but a project funded by foreign NGO's , old Ukrainian goverment that fell was actually not pro Moscow much less Moscow installed ,it just followed the path where enemy of my enemy becomes a friend.
DeleteUtter bullshit. Yanukovic was Putler's puppet all the way, and a thief on a very, very large scale. That was the main drive of Maidan movement - to get rid of crooked gov't. Putler, having lost a reasonably large investment in the form of the latest loan to Yanukovic in the end of 2013, went on a land grabbing spree. Got plenty of Ukrainian friends who were there - they weren't being paid.
DeleteMy friends from Kiew told me, they never noticed a foreign influence. Even it there was something like that: The many thousands on the Maidan where for sure from Ukraine. And it was indeed as Andrius told us about getting rid of Yanukoic and his thiefs..
DeleteJust for a second think how much resources are needed to sustain couple thousand people on the street for months ,where do you think this came from ? hint NGO's.
DeletePutin didn't lose a penny on the loan as it was insured in a way that is bomb proof and the first cash Ukraine recieves from EU,US and/or IMF automatically pays off Russias 3 billion ,as for crooks ,Timoshenko that was Moscows no.1 choice has way more stolen $$$ than Ynukovitch ever did and the new front runner is also one of the oligarchs.
Believe it or not Maidan leaders fuc*ed up big time ,plus they were naive if they believed EU would help Ukraine in any serious way ,EU is run by second rate burocrats that fail to make it in national politics and end up with cushy jobs in EU institutions. EU overreached last time it expanded when it accepted membership of Bolgaria and Romania that were are still way off European standards and are now pain in the ass of EU with huge migrant worker populations. if it could be done we would have kicked both countries out of EU for at least a couple of decades in which time they might get their shit in order.
Get your facts straight choices you had on tabel were bad to start with but chosing EU was stupid , what was their offer ? ,sort of partnership and free trade(Ukraines industry and trade has nothing to offer that could compete on EU markets so would gain little if anything EU on other hand has strong industry and trade that could exploit a new market) and chance to become member in 20-30 years. Russia on the other hand offered hard cash at low interest rates ,subsidised gas and access to markets of the former CIS ,where Ukraines firms stand a chance of competing)
Other thing you should consider is Ukraines military impotence! What is with that i would have the top ranks shoot or imprisoned for treason as they failed 100% to do anything.
In any case you will be lucky if half of Ukraine stays in one piece and for what ?
Now it will be interesting to see if the reports of Blackstone in Ukraine proves true.
Do you think they would be that overt? Both the US and Germany have been playing silly beggars. And the US has been trying to get one over on the EU too. If the Russians are doing the same for their own ends why is it worse? There appears to be several sides to all this,
Delete1) The US who want the military manoeuvre space at the centre of the World Island.
2) Germany/EU who need to expand the EU to keep he Euro buoyant in the long term. The Germans may end up paying for it but heck they should have kept the DM.
3) The Russians looking to adjust the borders back to something they see as more credible. I don't think they care about Western Ukraine. And supporting ethnic Russian is just about increasing the buffer zone between them and destabilizing/shrinking a pro-EU/West rump Ukraine. That they are being a bit more overt than the CIA or the Bundesnachrichtendienst (handing out CDU money to students) is just the Russian way. If the people of the West were more aware of what our side had being doing they may be a more balanced in their reading of the situation.
4) The pro-West / anti-Russian Ukrainian professional classes who see skimming EU money into their own accounts and access to EU job markets. As with all professional classes it is about their own needs first and if they can cover it with a veneer of supposedly being for the common good then that is just dandy. I believe it is called misdirection. If they were that intelligent and caring about the world they would look to how Finland copes living next to Russia.
5) The anti-West pro-Ukrainie who appears to be committing a grave crime by not wanting to be part of the West. Remember the EU is all for self determination as long as that self determination leads to the EU.
5) The poor average Ukrainian who just wants to be left on his own to live his life.
It is a mess. But if you pick it a part it is easy to what is happening. I just wish more on our side of the fence would stop pretending we are the good guys because we are not.
I am beginning to think Mrs Thatcher's initial thoughts on a united Germany were right. We should have let the east settle its own differences for 50 year after communism. They appear to be nothing but trouble.
for "anti-West pro-Ukrainie" to "anti-West pro-Russia"
DeleteColor revolutions are the "thing" of CIA NGO like "Human right watch...
DeleteIt's anglo-saxon art of communication apply on CIA..
During the Russian move there was some noise because a plane full of "humanitarians" were denied permission to land in the Crimea. They made it sound like a Third World country in the midst of a famine.
DeleteThe trouble is all the CIA Cold Warriors are retired. Those guys wouldn't have made such a cock-up. They would have steered clear of this mess. Come back old skool America!
The Germans are naive and stupid. They should stick to engineering and leave statecraft alone.
State Dept is totally outclassed. It used soft power via NGOs to foment revolt and expected that was the end game. Then they find out what happens when a regional power like Russia uses soft power as a way to create the conditions for the use of old-fashioned hard power and can't do shit except circulate what amounts to a petition for sanctions. dumbshits
ReplyDeleteAnd for what? Ukraine? Was a non-EU leaning Ukraine a problem so great they are willing to see it annexed by Russia? Foggy Bottom is playing checkers, the Russians are playing chess.
What the West should have done at the end of the Cold War was repeat Finland across central Europe. Enlarging NATO was stupidity. It would have pinned both sides in and replicated the Cold War stasis.
DeleteGermany re-unification was a mistake. How the French brokered the Euro for re-unification deal was masterly. They had nothing to offer the Germans. Sure the Germans have benefited sure term from the Euro zone, but now they are paying for it. The Germans may not want to bail out the EU anymore or have it expand to take on more basket cases but it has to to keep the Euro afloat. Imagine an EU with a West Germany and the DM bordered by a slowly progressing East Germany (with reunification a decade or two away) and a strong Poland modelled after the Finnish model. Perhaps even some sort of customs union within the former ex-Warsaw Pact countries. But no the idiots in power moved to quick, wanted the markets, wanted the cheap labour, and in the US case wanted more places for bases.
There is more or less this type of "union" of central European nations, the Visegrad Group.
DeleteYes true. But I was thinking a group that took in Romania and Bulgaria too; they they lag somewhat behind the VG membership in many ways (not that didn't stop the EU letting them in.) Split the continent in two. Stop their population moving to the West with any ease. And Finland-ise them.
DeleteIf they do invade Ukraine, the US should sink the Russian Black Sea fleet
ReplyDeleteAnd how? Perhaps you don't realize that sinking the Black Sea fleet is not such an easy task to do and it will spell war, not a random skirmish in third country like previously seen in the Cold War.
DeleteThis is Ukraine's weakness, it's what the USSR done to keep in check its many nations, they replaced their native people with Russians or other privileged minorities. Divide et impera anyone?
There is an official request from the US to bring an additional 175 strong contingent of soldiers in Romania. Their base, the air base at Kogalniceanu, is located at the seaside, very close to Crimea. There are also talks about some F-16's taking part in an exercise and staying in Romania for a period yet not determined. Another destroyer, the Donald Cook is scheduled to arrive so, some muscles are shown.
The fact remains: what could the US/EU do besides accepting Russian dominance in Ukraine and trying to calm their eastern allies?
Putin is pissed, I don't know he has a plan or not but he is in for the taking. And it will continue, probably with Moldavia, after he finishes Ukraine.
It would be poetic justice. Move into Crimea to safeguard Black Sea fleet, lose said fleet in wider war.
DeleteWell now Internal security and police force restore order in both cities, gov buildings had be retaken and "separatist terrorists" arrested. Now they finally start do defend own land and name those commie* bastards there true name, bloody terrorists.
ReplyDelete* Now I can call them that, they want to create People's Republic and rise good old red flags.
Side note: the new law that forbid saying any bad things about Russia or it's history is on the roll now, court in Moscow give the verdict that Wiktor Szenderowicz, Russian writer need to pay a equivalent of 28,2 thousand USD to the leader of main political party because he compare on tweets Russia to Germany and Soczi Olympic games to the ones in Berlin 1936.
Hi.
DeleteI'm from Russia and I'm totally agree with this comparing. Putin leads Russia step by step to a totalitarian police state. Russia is going to the dogs.
Like the Russian people had not suffer enough under last one totalitarian police state right ?
DeleteYes, but you just don't imagine a level of the Russian propaganda right now. I've never seen it before. TV, Newspapers, flows of shit from anywhere. Sometimes I think that my countrymen are really zombie not people. There is only Internet as a source of world's true information more or less, but our government slowly suppresses it.
DeleteDecades of let's not afraid to use that word "brainwashing", Russians by Soviet propaganda machine done horrible damage to the people. For some time I live in hope that this phase has ended with fall of Soviet Union, now... it's like USSR 2.0 with all those terrifying things. And as always, ordinary people will suffer in the name of megalomaniac ideas of group of men.
DeleteExactly, it's complete the brainwashing. I must say I didn't expect that people around bought that so easy. It seems they have never leaved former USSR. Well, if NATO will not help Ukraine, Putin will feel like a god.
DeleteThe US Army now only has 2 Brigades worth of Combat Power in Europe. The 2nd Stryker Cavalry Regiment in Vilseck, Germany, and the 173rd Airborne out of Vicenza, Italy. 20 Years ago we had more Soldiers in Europe than the current USMC has total. Not the case any more. We still have pre-positioned stocks in Europe for an Armored Brigade, but even putting two or three of those on the ground won't change the tactical situation against the Russian Army should things go hot.
ReplyDeleteLook to Germany and France to be the "great defenders of Europe" soon, backed up by American and British land based Air Power (a strategic win for the Air Force) and Navy 6th Fleet.
Right now we have enough Soldiers to put a credible threat if Russia attacked westward. It would be bloody all around. This is why Putin is being quite careful to only take territory unopposed. Fighting only when you've already won is sound policy.
Poland will also be one of the great defenders. Largest armored force in Europe with plans to get larger.
Deletetoo bad Poland is bleeding young people so fast they won't be able to man those tanks.
DeleteIndeed the largest army in Europe but for the last two decades in modernization process and still more then half of it's equipment is outdated. Bleeding of young is really a myth, some go other come back... there is not a problem with our regular forces man power, hell it's way more candidates then contracts. In opposite the National Reserve is design on the bad and idiotic system and for them there is not that much volunteers.
DeleteSeems like the best we could hope for is that the west wakes up and starts taking defense issues and foreign policy more seriously and do our best to conventionally deter any move against NATO allies. I'd forward base 1st AD(lets get those poor bastards out of Texas!) and some A10s to Poland, if they'd have us. Fat chance of that though with the current leadership, political and military.
ReplyDeleteThis is an interesting story. The Ukrainians know their military isn't in any kind of condition to take on Russia due to budget cuts, shortages of spares, lack of training, etc., but they plan on making it a guerilla war. I think it's their best bet at deterring Russia is to make it seem like a Texas-sized Chechnya.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ibtimes.com/ukrainian-soldiers-russia-if-we-fight-guerrilla-war-we-win-1568421
and another guerilla war story
Deletehttp://www.buzzfeed.com/mikegiglio/residents-of-eastern-ukraine-warn-of-partisan-war-if-russia