I don't know if its Russian, Ukrainian or Ethiopian (well I'm pretty sure its not the latter but you get the idea). Before you head over there check out this passage from them...
But Europeans never occurs to blame Kiev. To blame for the events of Donbass, the EU Council has identified in advance - it's "aggressive" Russia, which can not stop after the "annexation" of the Crimea.Everything I read about this conflict always comes back to two issues.
In fact, the fate of the inhabitants of Europe Donbass care. The really only care about her Russian gas supplies.
According to the results of the summit talks in Milan ("Free Press" about them wrote ), Moscow and Kiev have agreed on the terms of gas supply in winter. As explained by the head of "Gazprom" Alexey Miller , Ukraine every month will make a prepayment for the current delivery. Russia will supply its gas at a price of $ 385 per thousand cubic meters ($ 100 discount from the current price). In addition, until the end of 2014 Kiev must pay off the debt - 3.1 billion. Dollars.
But there is no money in Kiev - not to pay for current supplies or to repay debt. Logically, if the Europeans do not want to freeze, they could lend his Ukrainian protege. This is in the correct form, said Russian President Vladimir Putin on the results of the Milan meeting. "We hope that our European partners, the Commission can and should lean on Ukraine and help solve the problem with the cash gap" - said Putin, proposed a "specific tools": bridge loans, "the transfer of the next tranche of the IMF" or "guarantees a first-class European the bank. "
But Europeans no safeguards or about credits Kiev do not want to hear. They believe that Russia is obliged to deliver gas to Ukraine in debt - in other words, free.
Meanwhile, on Tuesday, 21 October, the head of the Ukrainian state Poroshenko ordered the start of the heating season across the country already this week. Actually gave "good" on the fence gas from the transit pipeline. This creates the risk that Russia will block any gas valve.
What does such a prospect for the EU, if the frost will make our European partners more objective assessments of the situation in the East of Ukraine?
* Natural Gas
* Ukraine being broke
From the outside looking in it appears that Europe is faced with a no win situation. They either have to take responsibility for Ukraine, pay its debts and integrate it into the EU...something that would be extremely expensive and ruin relations with Russia not to mention what that would do the Ukrainian people...prices would skyrocket, they would have to make painful reforms to their entire society....or they finally shut up, sit down and let events play out as they may.
Oh an I say Europe for one simple reason.
I have yet to hear anyone make a case for how this is a US issue. UN? Maybe but lets be honest. This is a European problem that deserves a European solution.
I can already predict the Ukrainian situation. Its going to be like the Pakistan-India scenario about Kashmir but with a few differences.
ReplyDeleteNo Nuclear weapons seems to one big difference.(Russians dont seem interested in flexing their aresenal for obvious reasons)
And from Kashmir we all can see the future of a stalemated territory conflict with both sides doing just enough to spread the flame but with no decisive move from any side. Atleast not yet.
After this, the West has to decide what situation it is more comfortable with. Letting the flames spread slowly in a stalemated comflict and then bitch on about why it isnt getting resloved even though no one has taken not 1 single concrete step to reslove it.
DeleteOr
Do your thing and make a decisive move to end it and leave no question un answered.
Giving non-military aid to Ukraine is a sign of people being comfortable with a stalemate situation the same as the Russians not interfering directly but through proxies. As of now, just like in Kashmir here.....everyone over in the West is just not interested or even willing to come to a decisive solution to Ukraine. Harsh words but they depict the truth.
The situation in the Ukraine is like Ebola. There are only a few things that really threaten the very existence of the American people. One is a major epidemic, an other is an unintended nuclear exchange. The Obama people seem to be doing their best to make both events more probable. Remember that Russia is the only nuclear power that can truly threaten America's existence. Of course, they would be hit even worst, but this is not a great reassurance, is it?
ReplyDeleteWhat I am worried about is not an intentional exchange (nobody is that crazy,) but and accidental one. The present tension makes an accidental nuclear exchange much more probable. The Russian have poor early-warning capabilities, so, in a situation of high tension, they will be ready to launch on warning - something that makes nuclear war by mistake a possibility.
@ poor early-warning capabilities@
Deletebut the capabilities were enough to resolve situation with the Turkey recon-airplane and the Israeli rockets launch - when it went to Syrian conflict
@ poor early-warning capabilities@
DeleteI mean satellites that can detect missile launches by the US. I would actually feel safer if the Russians had more of those. I have been thinking about a Soviet/Russian nuclear attack and how to prevent it for much of my life. (I am a retired Los Alamos physicist and I used to work on SDI-related problems, back in the 1980's.)
Satellites heat-marks-detecting is important part, but not the main. One of the main is this
Deletehttp://i081.radikal.ru/1409/76/aa3df893c4c9.png
@I am a retired Los Alamos physicist and I used to work on SDI-related problems, back in the 1980's@
Mmm… Respect! So what is the main reason for you to say about Russian satellite system’s weakness?
A strategic (ICBM) nuke exchange is out of the question, for obvious reasons. But we could see a tactical one. Russia has stated before that early use of tactical nukes is now a part of their doctrine. If their conventional forces can't handle a particular fight, you're going to see the nukes come out.
DeleteYou are missing the point. The biggest danger is a strategic exchange. Scenario:
Delete1 Russian strategic forces go on high alert, because of NATO activity on their borders.
2 Sensor failure on aging Russian early-warning satellite gives a false missile-launch warning.
3 KABOOOM!
4 500 million dead in the first launch.
You should be much more worried about a small Russian battle group in the Black Sea, Med, or Gulf launching nuclear-tipped cruise missiles at Armerican carrier battle groups. Because there's no way that the Russians can oppose US sea forces on any other terms.
DeleteThe Russian are not interested in fighting the USN, except maybe in the Black Sea, where they have enough conventional cruse missile to do the job. Besides, they know that any nuclear war would go strategic, because the US has essentially no tactical nukes. Al the remaining tactical weapons in the US arsenal are about 200 B61 bombs (designed in the 1960's,) that can only be carried USAF planes (or NATO Tornados.) The USN has no tactical nuclear weapons at all.
DeleteThe Russian are on the defensive, paranoid and almost blind. This is what makes the situation in the Ukraine sort of like the Ebola situation. The actions of the US government are putting the lives of all Americans at risk for the sake of an unimportant foreign country. We cannot neglect the danger of an unintended war fought with strategic weapons.
@I don't know if its Russian, Ukrainian or Ethiopian @
ReplyDeleteaccording to the site's part below
@e-mail: info@geopolitics.by моб. Тел.: +375 44 565-98-11@
the owner is from Belorussia
@Everything I read about this conflict always comes back to two issues. * Natural Gas* Ukraine being broke @
For a Russian like me it is more closer to an old wound bleeding. And Russia as a geopolitical subject tries (IMHO, of course) “to kill two rabbits with one shot” - to obtain stability inside and to eat some yummy outside.
It's not just Ukraine. EVERY fight the US has inserted itself into since 1990 has revolved around energy pipelines, or potential pipeline routs out of the central Asian 'Stans. Georgia is a bottleneck. So is Iran. Syria blocks access to a pipeline rout for Israel.
DeleteEurope needs more diverse sources to break Russia's stranglehold over them. The US needs that energy to get to friendly puppet states to prop up our petrodollar dominance. China needs new sources of energy most of all, because its population is urbanizing.
Once you see the real goals here, the crazy political/military decisions suddenly make sense.
@revolved around energy pipelines@
DeleteI beg to differ, sir. Pipelines is just a part of all image, IMHO. For example, drugs
http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/nnils/29013737/2414190/2414190_original.jpg
or logistic routs
http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/igor_tiger/19085608/258307/258307_original.jpg
or technologies of using U-238 and other collateral elements not only U-235 in Atomic power-plants.
For example, USA and West in general almost performance Russian weak-point and established all needed infrastructure for “white-color revolution” in Russia. But now Ukraine problem stimulates Russians to support Putin’s regime even in terms of current wealth reducing. Because Russia took an important in organizing the recent riot in Kiev – we can declare that Russia defended Western blow in terms of fight for hearts and minds. So, we will see how USA will protect petrodollar against cooperative torpedoing by Russia and China
There's all sorts of secondary issues, including increasing competition for fresh water (big in Israeli plans). But the primary issue is energy and the petrodollar. Because that's the wobbly house of cards that the US economy is dependent on.
Delete