Friday, November 07, 2014

Breaking! Russian tanks cross into Ukraine.

via Reuters.
(Reuters) - A column of 32 tanks, 16 howitzer artillery systems and trucks carrying ammunition and fighters has crossed into eastern Ukraine from Russia, the Kiev military said on Friday.
"The deployment continues of military equipment and Russian mercenaries to the front lines," spokesman Andriy Lysenko said in a televised briefing referring to Thursday's cross-border incursion.
Read the entire story here. 


  1. @Russian tanks cross into Ukraine.@
    familiar to me insiders from rebels do not prove it. But the violence is rising in the region by now - so I can't deny possibility of supply machinery or ammo from Russia to rebels. Attack of regular Russian troops is not probable at all.

    1. At least we can be sure that Russia supply them with ammo, without steady stream of it they would run out of it months ago, especially artillery pieces.

      The regular units will be doing show of force behind the border, game of nerves. Support separatist with artillery strikes and intel. I also doubt they will go full in to action. Russia already send there everything it can, weapons, men, supplies, intel, specialist equipment and man crews for it. Some time ago those OSCE drones were attacked (not like that was surprise) by separatists and one had signal jammed... and you need some specialist equipment to do this.

    2. @At least we can be sure that Russia supply them with ammo, without steady stream of it they would run out of it months ago, especially artillery pieces. @
      no doubt. But do not forget to account that Ukrainians corrupts trade with the rebels too – and very active as I was told.

      @Russia already send there everything it can,@
      Not exactly. Look at the photo and vids of our regular forces near the border – they a trivial in vehicles and munition, according to our passion to boast of our armor – we have some high-equipped units, but they are not noticed there (by myself at least). But of course there is special troops (to keep an eye on Ukrainians “Tochka-U” – but not so much I guess.

    3. "Everything they can" in form of at least equipment that can pretend to be ex-Ukrainian, yeah there are some mishap with those unique weapons system that never been in Ukrainian arsenal, but you know... "you can buy it in every hunters shop on the corner" ;)

      It's weird situation, this type of conflict it's not new, but we did not see one like that from long, long time in Europe.

    4. @It's weird situation, this type of conflict it's not new, but we did not see one like that from long, long time in Europe.@
      Agree, these approaches are old (in the main features). In general I guess Russia is organizing permanent instability zone on the base of Ukraine and will be pushing the instability in the EU’s side. USA meanwhile will be pushing Europeans and Chinese out of Africa – as more as possible. And according to this main movements the concrete situation in Ukraine will be developed.

    5. Creating the new "we are surrounded by enemies" mentality and more or less conflict zone for Russian citizens and as you mentioned distract them from internal problems. Nothing unite nation behind a leader more then the external danger...even if it is artificially created.

      The biggest danger in that situation is that someone will believe in that too much and forget to not cross the line drawn in that scenario. And do something really, really stupid...

    6. @Nothing unite nation behind a leader more then the external danger...even if it is artificially created. @

      Pan Shas, it looks like we have no another choice – as a practicing corporative lawyer traveling much around different Russian regions – I'm being more and more convinced that historically all our economy system was, is and will be war-oriented. Now we integrate some elements of market and consumption economy but it does not change the sense of the System.

      @The biggest danger in that situation is that someone will believe in that too much and forget to not cross the line drawn in that scenario. And do something really, really stupid.. @
      I guess main danger does not content in one person, IMHO as Russians were selfish chauvinists as we getting more and more by now. But Putin controls this very well and I hope our hidden demons will not show themselves.

  2. Really? How many times has this been said to happen now?

    You can only cry "BEAR!" so many times before it loses all meaning.

    Seriously... If Russia actually invades Ukraine, it won't be subtle or questionable.

    1. I see no reason for invasion by now. I guess the main Russian tactical aim in the region is fulfilled

    2. And were you see that Ukrainians say that was regular Russian forces? The info is about reinforce of heavy equipment and "mercenaries" from Russia.

      Tactical info' maybe... but what about strategical goal? How do you think, creating all time destabilization or frozen conflict regions like those black holes Abkhazia and Osetia?

    3. @ black holes Abkhazia and Osetia?@
      I agree with blackhole according to Abkhazia, but not S.Osetia. Ossetinian nation is a single Russian follower in the region – IMHO.
      @but what about strategical goal?@
      It looks like there is no concrete strategic goal by now. Ukraine is just of piece of global image. So I prone to pay more attention to the global thing which dictate tactic. In my opinion it is some kind of agreement between “Old Europe”, USA and Russia, and the game performances in the limits of the agreement.
      Conflict on Donbass looks like a test and show – more and more.

    4. You get the point Kiev sounded similar alarms that turned out no more that rumors and lies.

      So i would get my hope up to seeing some evidence this time.

  3. Only pro-russians and idiots cant see the signs. Russia makes me sick and I cant wait for Putler to be gone!

    1. Look for some Putler in your trousers))))

  4. Since day zero, RF is suporting, feeding and fuelling the rebels ... As did US in many times and places (anyone want me to list it aside Syria and Lybia?) ... It's a dance, and there's tacit rules ... RF must act under cover (even if it wasn't so plausible) and there's a real issue related to future assessment after all (they wont suply high-end gear to rebels and mercs, ok?) ...

    But ... but ... but ...

    If RF want to invade, humm, not even NATO can stop (as stated by former NATO commander in chief) ... and if RF really invades, we will all notice wihout any media lens ... be sure, dozens of old batches of t72's (getting out of active duties along t80's) aren't exactly an invasion ... we should expect a combined operation and alot of loud explosions deep on Ukraine rear (command and control or air defenses sites by ss-26's and lots of air power projection all around ...

    In short: RF has the choice to just create a frozen proxy war, but not the option of not flatting Ukraine in the case of open invasion ... It's not about the will of NATO countries, after all, but about the logistical and technical nightmare to deploy wetern troops so close of the RF borders ... simple put: no way ...

  5. Even with quite limited small scale offensives Russian soldiers are taking losses. This combined with heavy losses of the late summer and politically unpopular war, morale of some Russian conscripts and regular troops is not very high.

    If you are any smart at all, you realise that if hit by concentrated Ukrainian rocket/artillery fire, you are in trouble. Why risk your life in Ukraine for nothing. When bodies return in garrison towns, even stupidest realise what "training mission in Rostov area" actually means.

    Troop morale is a issue that cannot be overlooked and it makes a dilemma for Putin, too much better trained Russian troops in frontline can cause losses and mutiny atmosphere, too much locals and war wont go well. Donetsk airport being one of the clearest example, separatist getting humiliated.

    What comes to troop momements, almost every day there's youtube videos of Russian columns moving inside Ukraine, not really breaking news.

  6. About videos: "Since day zero, RF is suporting, feeding and fuelling the rebels" ...

    About invasion: "ss-26's and lots of air power projection all around" ...

    Show me a pair of ka52's or mi28's on it and i will agree with you ...

    Otherwise, it's just a stupid proxy war ...

    Now, let me ask something:

    If RF invaded Crimea, if RF invaded Donbass, if RF are the evil to be killed, why ukraine didn't call the state of war???

    They are just performing the crying wolf scene all the time ...

  7. what about the polish mercenaries that helped kiev regime in fighting the rebels ? funny how the western mainstream media hide all involvement of polish intelligence service and their mercenaries in eastern ukraine.. it is a very foollish move by the current polish goverment to be used like that... and dont forget about German Intelligence's involvement and of course the Vicky Nuland "5 billion" effort to destabilize ukraine..

    Hilarious how kiev spout another "russkie invasion" when republicans just gained the Senate.. they think the US FOREIGN POLICY will change when republican in charge ?

  8. Observers who are sceptical about recent claims of an overt invasion are justified. There is definitely infiltration of personnel, including Europeans on both sides of the conflict. Here is a video featuring ex French military assisting on the rebel side:

    And while the Russians cannot be trusted, NATO has a poor record, like the cry wolf Kiev Government, when it comes being truthful about the conflict. Things did not get off to a good start with the Crimean separation when Fogh Rasmussen was party to the 40,000 troops on the border claim, reported here: that was found to be completely false when an NBC news crew drove the border and saw next to nothing over the course of four days:
    I found it hard to believe the 40,000 troop claim was a simple mistake - which made me suspicious of subsequent accusations.

    The two views on the conflict are that 1. The Russians are trying to undermine a popular revolution that occurred in Kiev by meddling in the South and East or 2. The revolution in Kiev was not indicative of the sentiment prevalent in the entire country, so that the Russian speaking regions, after hearing disparaging statements from those who took power, decided largely on their own, that they would take the self determination option - something easy to do in Crimea, but much more difficult to achieve in Eastern areas.


    "AP reporters saw more than 80 military vehicles on the move Saturday in separatist-controlled areas"

    OSCE has stopped using UAV's in Ukraine due to Russian hitech jamming equipment.

  10. So this is a combined arms Tank Battalion with assets.
    Kinda small for a Russian invasion force ain't it?

  11. Hate to sound alarmist, but this reminds me of Germany early in WW2. Remember, Hitler just walked into Alsace-Lorraine which was technically part of France, but ethnically German...did so without a shot. He walked into cheering crowds. He said he needed to help ethnic Germans in the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia...and was handed it in the name of peace by Chamberlain.
    Now look at Putin: excuse for invading Crimea? Oh, the ethnic Russians wanted back in. The rebels...many of whom I have seen in videos wearing new Russian uniforms with the patches off (i.e. Russian troops).
    He is doing it piece by piece. Slowly expanding. He knows a full invasion of all Ukraine would finally wake up NATO. Instead he is just slowly walking in. The Ukraine was the breadbasket of the Soviets, and the enmity between them and Russia is centuries old. The Soviets starved a million Ukrainians under Stalin while taking nearly all the grain back to Russia. Czar Putin wants his empire back, he is just patient.

  12. First the camels nose, then the camel is in the tent.
    >Arab Proverb<

    When the wolfs ears appear, the wolf is not far behind.
    >L'il Red Riding Hood<


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