Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Jane's Defense Analyst see renewed assault in Ukraine in two months.

via Defense Blog.
A consensus is building among NATO officials and military analysts of the situation in Eastern Ukraine that Russia will renew its invasion of the region in the next two months.
However, there is also general agreement that the attack would take only after the 9 May Victory Day celebrations in Moscow, which President Vladimir Putin regards as reaffirming Russia’s continued position as a “great power.”
The predictions of a new Russian offensive by analysts have coincided with similar statements by officials such as NATO Supreme Commander, USAF General Philip Breedlove. Gen Breedlove testified to this effect before the US Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) on 30 April, stating that the sometimes on-sometimes off ceasefire agreed in February after the second round of Minsk negotiations had been utilised by the Russian forces to “reset and reposition”.
NATO’s assessment, he added, is that the Russian military’s goal is to secure the gains made on territory already taken in the Ukraine Donbass region, as well as to deploy for the launch of a late spring attack. “Many of their [the Russians’] actions are consistent with preparations for another offensive,” he said, adding that Russian forces’ activities were not just exercises but “preparing, training, and equipping to have the capacity again to take an offensive.”
Read it all here. 

Interesting.  If NATO is expecting a renewed Russian led offensive they're certainly not doing anything to "shape" the battlefield.

Is it just me or does this alliance seem to have more of an administrative/bureaucratic edge rather than warfighting element to it?  The staff flunkies might love all the paper pushing but when it comes to actually doing real work they seem out of their depth.

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