Friday, February 10, 2017

Is the EU on the verge of breaking up?

Note.  This isn't a normal story for a military blog but this has far reaching implications.  I think it's important.

via Business Insider.
Today, neither prosperity nor peace is guaranteed through EU membership. The days of European politicians promising prosperity through integration ended with the 2008 financial crisis. The refugee crisis and terrorist attacks in Europe have threatened to disrupt peace. The EU couldn’t effectively address either crisis and citizens started questioning whether membership was worth the cost.
With public discontent growing, populism and nationalism are on the rise. Anti-establishment, populist parties have won seats not only in national parliaments, but also in the European Parliament. A number of the politicians from these parties represent countries that have experienced severe effects from the economic crisis—such as Italy, Greece, and Spain—or countries that have seen a dramatic rise in Euroskepticism in the last few years—such as the United Kingdom.
Draghi’s response to the Italian MEPs’ question marked one of the first instances in which a European authority acknowledged parameters for leaving the bloc. In fact, the European treaty does not have a provision detailing how a member would exit the eurozone, and this is not a mere oversight.
The monetary union was considered irrevocable and irreversible. When the Maastricht Treaty was signed, member states thought it was inconceivable that any country would want to withdraw from the eurozone.
From the same article...
 In December 2016, two Italian members of the European Parliament (MEPs) from the populist Europe of Nations and Freedom groups asked the European Central Bank (ECB) in a letter to explain the “widening balance divergences between individual countries [in the eurozone] since the 2008 crisis.”
They also asked the ECB “how the balances would, technically, be settled, especially those in net debtor countries, should a Member State participating in the system decide to quit the single currency.”
This is the first time MEPs have asked about what leaving the eurozone would look like. ECB President Mario Draghi replied in a letter to the two politicians on January 19. He said in part, “if a country were to leave the Eurosystem, its national central bank’s claims on or liabilities to the ECB would need to be settled in full.”
For the Italians, this issue has more to do with national politics than the EU. Italy will hold general elections in 2017 or 2018. Its internal debate regarding EU membership will be central to its dialogue with the EU. The power dynamics between the two entities will continue to unfold throughout the year.
I wonder if the Pentagon has looked at how the EU dissolving will affect the NATO alliance and their approach to Russia.

This alliance won't make it to 2020....two, maybe three more countries will leave.  Things are getting spicy.

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