Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Theory. Iran is gonna make a run at Israel using Hezbollah...

I made a post yesterday about a certain website listing Iran ahead of Israel in terms of military power.

No biggie.  I link to many websites.

What has me spinning is the comments.  No thought.  No attempt at understanding.  No attempts to think out of the box.

I stated that the IDF appears to have gotten soft, is attempting to fight in the Western style and that I believe they could get got.  Didn't say that Iran was militarily more powerful, just that I'm sensing vulnerability.

Did some more thinking.

Syria might be about pipelines for the US and Russia and the Europeans, but for Iran and Hezbollah (who have sent many forces to the fight) I believe its about developing a secure supply chain.

Let me expand.

Check this out via Wikipedia.
The 2006 Lebanon War, also called the 2006 Israel–Hezbollah War[37] and known in Lebanon as the July War[2] (Arabic: حرب تموز‎, Ḥarb Tammūz) and in Israel as the Second Lebanon War (Hebrew: מלחמת לבנון השנייה‎, Milhemet Levanon HaShniya),[38] was a 34-day military conflict in Lebanon, Northern Israel and the Golan Heights. The principal parties were Hezbollah paramilitary forces and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The conflict started on 12 July 2006, and continued until a United Nations-brokered ceasefire went into effect in the morning on 14 August 2006, though it formally ended on 8 September 2006 when Israel lifted its naval blockade of Lebanon. Due to unprecedented Iranian military support to Hezbollah before and during the war, some consider it the first round of the Iran–Israel proxy conflict, rather than a continuation of the Arab–Israeli conflict.[5]

The conflict was precipitated by the 2006 Hezbollah cross-border raid. On 12 July 2006, Hezbollah fighters fired rockets at Israeli border towns as a diversion for an anti-tank missile attack on two armored Humvees patrolling the Israeli side of the border fence.[39] The ambush left three soldiers dead. Two Israeli soldiers were abducted and taken by Hezbollah to Lebanon.[39][40] Five more were killed in Lebanon, in a failed rescue attempt. Hezbollah demanded the release of Lebanese prisoners held by Israel in exchange for the release of the abducted soldiers.[41] Israel refused and responded with airstrikes and artillery fire on targets in Lebanon. Israel attacked both Hezbollah military targets and Lebanese civilian infrastructure, including Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport.[42] The IDF launched a ground invasion of Southern Lebanon. Israel also imposed an air and naval blockade.[43] Hezbollah then launched more rockets into northern Israel and engaged the IDF in guerrilla warfare from hardened positions.[44]
There is more on their page, so if you're interested go check it out.  In the meantime put a pin in that.

Now consider this.

1.  We've seen terrorist operate in quasi-nation state fashion militarily.  They are operating tanks, apcs, artillery and anti-aircraft sites as well as UAVs.

2.  Hezbollah has stated that they can basically blot out the sun with their rockets.  Iron Dome is good but it ain't that good.  Even if they miss their targets it's gonna be kinda hard to miss some sort of Israeli installation.

3.  Hezbollah commandos have gotten a workout in Syria.  Bumbling and fumbling ain't in their playbook anymore.

4.  Quds Force has also been getting extensive experience in Syria.

My theory.

Assad/Syria is seeking allies.  I doubt very much that he would directly participate in a conflict with Israel but he WOULD provide an additional axis of approach AND a supply point for the flow from Iran.

I'm just guessing but I'd bet that Hezbollah will no longer have to manufacture rockets in basements and little shops, cause Iran will give them all they want and more...to include anti-tank missiles, anti-aircraft missiles and even anti-ship missiles.

I'm fleshing this out and will add more later but I believe that we're about to see round two of the 2006 war, this time with better firepower on the side of Hezbollah and a much improved supply chain.

If this theory is even halfway right then Israel should be moving toward serious force protection even as I type this out.  I would bet that we'd probably see the same starting event too.  An ambush on an isolated patrol with the intent to capture IDF soldiers (I'm sure they'll probably aim for a couple of females too...that will certainly shock the Israeli public) and a massive rocket barrage perhaps aimed at a major airport or an air force base.

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