Monday, October 14, 2019

Assad and Russia rush to the aid of the Kurds...


Ya know what's a mind fuck?  It could be argued that Russia is playing the traditional role of the United States in Syria.

HEAR ME OUT!!!!  Don't go high and to the right .... let me explain.

What was the genesis of US Army Special Forces? Well check this out from

Special Forces Soldiers are trained to perform several key missions -- each meant to be performed effectively and efficiently in a small-team operational structure.
Special Forces Soldiers are often deployed to prevent terrorist and insurgent incidents abroad. They respond to terrorist activities and train other nations' militaries in the basics of fighting insurgents.
The cornerstone of Special Forces operations, unconventional warfare is activities conducted to enable a resistance movement or insurgency to coerce, disrupt, or overthrow a government or occupying power by operating through or with an underground, auxiliary, and guerrilla force in a denied area.
Foreign Internal Defense is the act of training and equipping foreign allied military forces to defend against insurgency, subversion, terrorism and other security threats.

More here.

It's a simplistic stating of their missions but its the Army's recruiting site so simplicity is called for.

But back on task.

When communism was on the march during the 50's, 60's and 70's we saw the eventual creation and deployment of Special Forces to bolster friendly govts that were facing an onslaught of insurgents all over the world.

I imagine the thinking was along the lines of we send advisors and we don't have to send our conventional forces.  The old "we train them to fight for themselves...we don't fight for them" kinda thing.

Now look at Syria.

Breaking that complicating, crazy, international gamesmanship down to its bare bones what are we actually looking at?

An insurgency that started in Iraq, spread to Syria and has taken almost a half decade (or is it longer) to contain.

In short.

The Russians rushed to aid the Syrian govt against an insurgency that cropped up to threaten it.

What confused the situation is that the US, a few European nations, Iraq and the Kurds (an insurgent force according to Turkey) rushed to contain that same insurgent force.

Other regional players entered the fray on the side of Syria (most notably Hezbollah and Iran) and suddenly you have the chaotic fight that we see today.

But do you get the force of connection here?  In essence (and this is where you start hating my guts) we are moving against ISIS BUT TO BE HONEST they don't appear to be the main effort of our operations.  The Syrian govt is.

So to use a tired analogy.  Syria can in some ways be compared to Vietnam...a Vietnam in the desert.  The difference (besides the obvious one, the terrain) is that where we were supporting the sovereign govt of S. Vietnam against the Viet Cong, Russia, China, and North Vietnam in this case Russia is defending the sovereign govt of Syria against ISIS, the US, some EU countries and at one time the Kurds.

Till now.

Now we see the Kurds rushing to Russia and Syria for protection.  The reason is clear.

Turkey is curb stomping them.

The real winner is gonna be Syria with Russia a close second.

How will this play out?

Turkey can't afford to have the Syrians and Russians as a hostile force.  The Russians don't want that either.  So how do they "protect" the Kurds?  A couple of things will happen.

1.  Turkey will be given a buffer zone.  Maybe 10 to 20 miles.

2.  Turkey will be given assurances from the Russians and Syrians that they will control the Kurds and prevent cross border attacks.

3.  The Kurds will be given an autonomous region under the control of the Syrian govt that they will administrate but will be answerable to Damascus.

4.  You will see the Kurds happily accept this deal and they will ally with Syria/Russia to completely destroy ISIS within that country.

5.  I hope I'm wrong but the US will be completely outfoxed.  Putin will declare victory.  Syria and even Turkey will fall even deeper into the Russian camp and those sanctions that were talked about will fade from view or have less punch than desired because sanctions have been used so much that I MUST BELIEVE a type of underground worldwide economy has been established to avoid them

Just my theory folks.  Don't hate.  DEBATE!!!

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