Sunday, December 15, 2019

A perfect storm is getting ready to hit the US Dept Of Defense...can they steer clear or will they get wrecked?

The Pentagon is facing a perfect storm.  What is it the hip crowd says?  Get woke go broke?  Well things are bad and I don't know if the leadership sees what's coming.  WTF do I mean?  A few points...

*  The Pentagon Papers Part 2.

The latest revelations about the war in Afghanistan and how the Pentagon has deceived the public will have blowback.  I've seen a small portion of it aimed at the sainted Mad Dog Mattis.  In one of his FEW ill timed remarks he stated that the report (to paraphrase) isn't revelatory. 
Former Defense Secretary James Mattis said Friday he did not consider a bombshell report on the Afghanistan war released this week to be particularly "revelatory," while defending U.S. efforts to rebuild the war-torn country.
So what do we have?  A former great that is seeking to downplay reports.  A bit of shine came off with this comment and trust in the Pentagon is taking a beating. 

If you take the time to read mil-Twitter you'll see some of the pain, anguish and more importantly ANGER coming from many.  If the trust ain't gone with the DoD then its fading fast...this will have implications going forward.

*  Budget Trainwreck Coming.

We've talked about this for a minute now but let's see where we're at.  Many programs have been delayed in an effort to acquire new gear sequentially. That effort has failed due to the gigantic elephant in the room known as the F-35.  What does this mean?  It means that instead of a 100 train car pile up it's gonna be a 500 train car wreck.

*  Recruiting Woes.

Gone unsaid is the recruiting woes the military is facing.  Normal avenues of recruiting have been forsworn in an effort to attract urbanites.  I get it. Unfortunately while seeking to expand the recruiting base they're alienating those that have normally supported the effort.  The canary in the coalmine? Pay Raises out of the blue.  Not only is recruiting in trouble but so is retention. I won't hit on many of the issues involved but service members are fed up and no longer willing to pay the price for jacked up rules that make no sense, back to back deployments, women's issues etc...

*  The China Problem.

I had a sudden realization.  The USMC is turning the clock back on being an independent service and falling full fledged under the Navy umbrella.  OK.  Don't agree with it but ok.  Is that is this because they've wargamed China and it was determined that being expeditionary AND small wars amphibious specialists is a detriment to winning the fight against the Red Dragon?  This one is guess work (I have nothing to base this on) but what if the US Navy had RAND do a study and it was found that we would lose at sea against the Chinese?  Wouldn't that explain why we're seeing such drastic change in the USMC?  Wouldn't that explain why the Navy is all about 355 ships by 2030?

Yeah.  The DoD is facing a perfect storm and I don't think they're ready.

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