Sunday, January 12, 2020

Iran shot down their own civilian airliner...being perceived as a madman can be good (hear me out)...

By now you've heard that Iran shot down their own civilian airliner.  Some have blamed Trump.  Others have called the Iranians "stupid", and still others are wondering why an anti-aircraft crew would seemingly set their weapon to automatic while civilian aircraft were flying around.

You knew I'd have a quick hit on this (while I'm digging thru e-mails from LAST week).

Let's do a quick tick tock of events...

1.  The Quds Force Commander is plotting attacks against US installations in the Middle East.  We had already seen massive protests inside the Green Zone, which presumably, the Iraqis allowed to enter to threaten our embassy.

2.  One can rightfully assume that we were looking at Benghazi part two.  At one point it really looked (at least from my chair) that our Marines would either have to be evacuated while under fire OR another Iranian hostage drama (this is what I think they were actually angling for) which would affect our domestic politics AND humiliate us in the region.

3.  We acted forcefully and in a limited fashion.  We took the Quds Force Commander off the field.  We put him in a blender and hit the high speed button courtesy of a Hellfire Ninja Missile.

4.  The Iranians promised revenge.  Staged mourning parades resulted in several dozen Iranians killed/injured.

5.  The Iranians were left in a quandary.  Trump promised massive retaliation if they attacked.  He stated that he wanted peace but that if an American was killed that they would face hellfire like no one has seen before.  How to strike back but protect themselves from being ripped apart (there was every indication that Trump would use retaliation as a means to decapitate the leadership of Iran).

6.  Iran chose to do a couple of things.  First they alerted Iraq of the installations they would target KNOWING (or perhaps instructed) to tell the Americans of their plans.  Second they launched an EXTREMELY limited strike from Iranian soil using ballistic missiles.  This is important.  Iran could have launched several hundred of these missile but only chose to send about a dozen.

7.  Trump states that all is well.  No Americans were injured and additional sanctions against Iranian LEADERSHIP and not the people would be started.

For his entire time in office Trump has been labeled a madman.  Impulsive. Reactionary.

For the first time in recent memory that label worked in his favor.  The shoot down of their own airliner proved that.

How nervous were the Iranians?

An antiaircraft crew put their system on automatic and got the fuck out of dodge.  The Iranian leadership was so unnerved that they alerted the hated Americans of their plans to ensure that none of the spawn of Satan would be injured (their characterization of us, not mine). 

Being seen as crazy works.

But more importantly being seen as ready to launch an all out strike against an enemy if they cross the line works well too.  Trump stumbled onto something that the Pentagon should take note of.  Stationing troops in far off lands isn't a deterrent.  Being prepared to act decisively, aggressively and in a punishing fashion IS!

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