Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Ominous as hell....UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021

Note.  Ok.  If this projection is true then NOW I GET why authorities are jumping thru their behinds.  If the Brits are right then we're looking at a mini/half Spanish Flu type scenario (assuming it ends in the Spring of 2021).  What I wonder is how long these draconian measures will be required, how hard the second hit will be and how the economy will respond to an extended period of forced lower activity.

via Guardian.
The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a secret Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials reveals.

The document, seen by the Guardian, is the first time health chiefs tackling the virus have admitted that they expect it to circulate for 12 more months and lead to huge extra strain on an already overstretched NHS.

It also suggests that health chiefs are braced for as many as 80% of Britons becoming infected with the coronavirus over that time.

Prof Chris Whitty, the government’s chief medical adviser, has previously described that figure as the worst-case scenario and suggested that the real number would turn out to be less than that. However, the briefing makes clear that four in five of the population “are expected” to contract the virus.

The document says that: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation.”

It just occurred to me that the US obviously has run the same projections and come to the same conclusion.  Now the closing of schools, sporting events etc makes sense.

I guess even at this late date they're trying to take a huge hit now to save a bigger hit later. 

But what does this mean?

Virus lifts in July with a major rebound if everything works right.  Millions unemployed and stores remain closed till 2021 if it doesn't?

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