Thursday, April 23, 2020

Crazy thought. Either the petro-dollar is dead or we're headed back to oil wars in a decade...


Think about it.  We're probably in the midst of a recession that rivals the great depression (unemployment is estimated at 20% and since so many of my fellow countrymen/governors want to see the lockdown continue we'll probably hit 30%) so oil will be down for at least the next two years.

So for now the countries that depend on oil for their survival are in a hurt locker.

That probably means de-stabilization for a whole host of them.

That means bad things especially for the Middle East/North Africa.

But can the global community hold it off?  I'm thinking yeah.  For maybe a few years at the outside (MAYBE).  But sooner or later the top is gonna come off and desperation will lead to even more bad things.

Saudi Arabia is already teetering.  Iran is also in a hurtlocker.  Many others aren't much better.

How long before they haul out their shiny new toys and decide to make a few land grabs to boost their economy and occupy the minds of their citizens.  Even the rumor of war will raise oil prices.  What will an actual war between oil producers do?

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