Thursday, August 20, 2020

Has Turkey bitten off more than it can chew?

Awesome tweet!

The question has to be asked.  Can a medium power sustain combat operations on four fronts and possibly a 5th (I note that talk about action against Egypt has quieted tremendously over the past few weeks after making combat seem imminent)?

I don't think so.

The secret sauce so far?

The same as good ole Uncle Sam has utilized.  They've kept casualties low.  The most kinetic theater is just over the border and that one is probably the most justified action (from a Turk point of view).

The problem will be the lost wealth and treasure in these fights.  Can they sustain it for long?  I don't think so.

And that plays into US/Russian/Syrian/Kurd plans.  They will simply outlast Turkey's ability to maintain these 4 wars.  Something will have to give.  Capitulating to Greece is out of the question.  Libya provides the opportunity to recoup some of the lost money.  Don't know enough about the Armenian situation to properly speculate.  Which leaves Syria.  Turkey would from my seat abandon further expansion into that country, reinforce it's border and simply conduct punitive air raids against the Kurds/ISIS.

They can lessen their involvement without looking like they're withdrawing.

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