Monday, December 07, 2020

A major regional war is brewing in Africa that will engulf Ethiopia, Egypt, France & probably the UK in the fighting


The question is not if Egypt will attack the GERD, but when will Egypt attack the GERD.  The Nile River supply’s 99% of Egypt’s freshwater, and Egypt will not allow Ethiopia to have monopolistic power over its only source of freshwater.  Now that Ethiopia is engulfed in civil war, and has also begun filling the GERD – beginning the process of diverting water resources of the Nile –  the answer to the question of when has become more forthcoming.

Egypt will initially implement a policy of exacerbating Ethiopia’s civil war by supplying resources to the disgruntled armed ethnic groups, with the intent of weakening the Ethiopian state.  Bombing the GERD will eventually follow, because it is the only policy that can permanently end the existential threat of diverting Nile water resources.  There is no better time for Egypt to attack the GERD then during Ethiopia’s nascent civil war.

The GERD is the pride and honor of the modern Ethiopian state, so Ethiopia will be forced to retaliate and likely attack Egyptian territory.  In return, Egypt will respond in kind, leading to an all-out war between the two nations. 

Ethiopia and Kenya have had a Mutual Defense Pact since 1963, and an Egyptian attack on the GERD will be considered an act of war, invoking the defense treaty.  In addition to being signatories of the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA), Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Burundi are all members of the East African Community, and are likely to aid Ethiopia over Egypt in a war. 


Some of you will think this is alarmist but I boldly disagree.  I've posted a scant few articles on this subject but I believe that this conflict will be the catalyst that draws both the US and China onto the continent in a big way and will lead to my predicted clash there.

Time will tell but read the entire article before you slam my prediction.


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