Saturday, March 06, 2021

The Marine Corps 2030 battle plan faces its biggest places to distribute to...

 Berger's battle plan is all about distributed forces.  Light forces with big missiles on small amphibs floating to various locations throughout the Pacific and firing shots at the Chinese fleet.

I've said on these very pages that our allies (and potential allies) would all hesitate to get in the middle of two giants when we finally square off.  The latest article from "THE DRIVE" highlights those concerns.  Read the entire thing but pay attention to these passages when you do...

However, reports have already emerged that many American allies and partners in the Pacific, such as Australia and South Korea, do not appear to be overly inclined to offer to host any of these weapons. A senior Japanese Foreign Ministry official did tell Nikkei Asia that the planned American missile force in the Pacific "could be discussed as we talk about the course of the Japan-U.S. alliance" and another Japanese official also told that out that this "would be a plus for Japan." At the same time, neither of those statements voice any sort of clear support for the country actually hosting the U.S. weapons itself.

And then this...

 Of course, it remains to be seen how much of the PDI, as it is proposed now, will come to fruition in the coming years. 

“It’s been fascinating to me, the relative ease at which the conversation happens year to year when it comes to the EDI [European Defense Initiative] when compared to PDI,” INDOPACOM head Davidson had said yesterday in defense of the Pacific defense spending plan. “Some of the angst has been mechanical right? The original European initiative had access to the [overseas contingency operations funding]. And that made it an easier lift.”

Story here 

I get it.  China is the pacing threat.  We've got to get ready to fight China and the models show that this is the best option we have (Berger's concept).

The problem?

Asia isn't Europe.  In Europe we could build NATO.  In the Pacific we've already seen SEATO fail and trying to build a modern day "mini-NATO" won't work any better than it did in the past.

The single point of failure is clear.

China has grown to a point where the smaller countries will do the typically Asian thing.

They'll not take sides.

They'll wait patiently.

They'll see how this thing shakes out and they'll make nice with the winner.

In a fight with China we'll probably be on our own.

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