Chinese aircraft carrier and her escorts pass Okinawa on their way to the Pacific...

 

Chinese aircraft carrier and 5 ships pass Okinawa on way to Pacific - the Liaoning goes to sea for a little stretch of her conventional legs and a flap at her wings. Does it matter? Yes - but let’s qualify this news. A thread, short-ish: https://t.co/8ZhcpuL5go

— Alessio Patalano (@alessionaval) April 6, 2021

The plan is to develop an A2/AD zone to keep the Chinese bottled up INSIDE the 1st island chain. Now they're starting to operate in the 2nd and 3rd. The concept is defeated before its even implemented.

Will the USMC change course?

It can't.

Berger's plan is shock and awe.  Its moving fast and shedding current combat power by design.

He's moving fast even though circumstances were bound to change because he's made the same mistake that all transformationalist make.  They're so sure of their plans that they implement change that fails to take into account changing events that affect the organization.

Additionally his goal requires a reduction in boat spaces.  If he is to pay for his goal without additional funding then Marines have to be dismissed from the service.

Costs will skyrocket so you can bet that the floor won't be 150K Marines.  My guess is that in order to keep this plan within current funding it'll have to dip closer to 100K Marines.

Additionally the USMC is becoming aviation heavy.  

Two platforms are going to continue to gobble up the Marine Corps.  The F-35 and the CH-53K.

My prediction is that you'll see two things.  A reduction in the buy of both and an increased reliance on Army aviation (with a serious node to "integrating" Navy rotary/tilt wing assets) to make up for the gap.

The Chinese reacted.

They've already jacked with Berger's concept and I'm sure more is to come.

The New Missile Marines aren't gonna cut it in the future conflict and we're stuck with the force design for the next 20 years.

Let's hope war doesn't come...and if it does its not a fight for the survival of the nation.