Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Leaked map shows China plans to invade S. Taiwan after taking Kinmen, Penghu

 Thanks to Joe for the link!

via Taiwan News.

Later that afternoon, two accounts on the tightly government-orchestrated social media site Weibo, Tianfu Community and Dingsheng Forum, released a photo of PLA soldiers seated with their backs turned to a massive topographical model of southern Taiwan. The model is covered in black marks, appearing to show key strategic locations the PLA plans to seize during an invasion.

In the background, a sign can be seen which reads, "Southern Island-Landing Battle Group Command Post" (南部登岛作战群指挥所) seeming to indicate the name of the military unit. On a wall on the right, a large map is mounted which reads, "Southen Island-Landing Battle Group Landing Craft Loading Map" (南部登岛作战群装载航渡图).

Among the routes displayed on the map, one shows PLA forces first seizing Kinmen, followed by Penghu, before moving on to invade the southern part of Taiwan proper. Another map on the wall appears to show PLA forces breaking from their beachhead into three routes of attack after landing in southern Taiwan.

Ominously, one Weibo user wrote, "Isn't that a topographical map of the Taiwan area? This is such an exciting development for the new year!" However, in an interview with BBC News that aired on Wednesday (Jan. 15), Tsai indicated that such a venture by China could come at a high price because Taiwan has strengthened its capabilities and, "Invading Taiwan is something that is going to be very costly for China."


The response is telling.

No boasting of pushing them back into the sea, just that it would be costly.

I still believe that if the Chinese are able to establish a foothold then they win by default.  Punishing air attacks in the style of Shock and Awe would wreck the Taiwanese people and probably have their govt suing for peace.

Once a landing is made the terrain is irrelevant.  They will determine the pace of fighting and will be able to push fresh forces into the fight while the Taiwanese are being worn down.

Additionally I just can't imagine a US administration wanting to go to war over Taiwan.  Hawks will but policy makers (to include Congress) have other priorities right here at home.

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