Sunday, January 23, 2022

Many are saying that the Ukrainian crisis IS ABOUT NATO Expansion

If NATO Expansion is at the root of this conflict (I don't know, just running with this tweet), then serious miscalculations have been made. Even more worrisome is that all those exercises, all those forward deployed high readiness units ... that constant military activity instead of deterring aggression actually promoted it!

The weakness in the forward deployed/stand in force concept (at least as things stand in Europe) is that policy makers and not the military makes the final decision.

Forward deployed/stand in forces will go from being "recon" and "deterrents" to targets to be quickly eliminated while we watch enemy forces flow in.

But back to this issue.

If Russia is viewing this as a final straw type proposition and feel as if they can't yield one more inch of territory then war it is.

If the Russian people see things the way Russian leadership do then all the talk of weak support goes away.

Imagine if China occupied southern Mexico and was trying to take over the northern half.  Wouldn't we rush aid and forces to that region to prevent them from encroaching onto our border?

Even if the "legitimate" govt of Mexico was in the Chinese camp and fully supported them, I just don't think we'd leave the northern part (that in this scenario has a strong allegiance to the US) from falling under their control!

The US Army would be rushing armored, mechanized and light infantry thru Texas and Arizona into Mexico.  The USAF and Navy would be hustling too.

If this is the rationale then Russian intentions are clear.  They will go to war, they will maintain a buffer against NATO expansion.  

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