Tuesday, June 13, 2023

Ukrainians haven't even reached Russia's main defensive lines? This is the best summary of operations yet...

 NEWS UPDATE VREMIVKA SALIENT EVENING JUNE 12

First Ukrainian gains and then some areas retaken by Russian forces. There has been hard battles all day long on the Vremivka SALIENT. First we had the usual Ukrainian night offensive and then the counteroffensive by Russian 127th Division.


During the early morning Ukrainian forces took control of Novodarivka (1) and the third settlement in the Mokri Yali River valley, Storozheve. Later on during the day the main part of the fourth valley settlement Makarivka (3), came under Ukrainian control. 


At noon Russian 127th Division started a major counteroffensive. Mainly towards Makarivka, but also towards Storozheve on the left flank and north of Urozhaine on the right flank. Minor offensive operations was also made in the vicinity of Levadne (3) and Novodarivka (1). The russian counteroffensive was supported by massive artillery and air bombardments.


As a result of the Russian attack and the bombardment, Ukrainian forces retreated from (the farm) Levadne and Russian forces retook it. Ukrainian forces has avoided taking control of Novodarivka so it's again in the green (contested) zone. The Ukrainian forces has also been driven to the northern outskirts of Makarivka. Russian attacks are ongoing.


The aim of the Russian forces are not to reclaim all the lost settlements, but to retake Makarivka and the Russian defences west of Storozheve. By doing this they secure the only supplyroad to Rivnopil (4) and the northern defences (red line). If that supplyroad is cut the Russians must withdraw from that defenceline 4 km to the south to a new defenceline (white line). That wouldn't be catastrophic, but RuAF want to hold the forward defenceline (red shaded) as long as possible, to increase Ukrainian losses. To hold the northern line the western flank also must be secure. That's the reason why Russians forces spend so much energy on  Levadne and Novodarivka.


In general the entire Vremivka salient is hard to defend, since there are few supplyroads. Several of the roads are also dirtroads (yellow) and barely usable in bad weather.  The main supplyroads (purple) in the east are situated outside the defenceline in the north. Blahodatne  doesn't even have any direct contact with neighbouring settlements. Ukrainian forces don't have to take the salient. It would be enough to cut the supplyroads on the eastern and western side to force the RuAF to withdraw from the entire salient. Instead the UkrAF has spent lot of energy with frontal assaults on the northern part of the salient with heavy losses (picture 3).


RuAF wants to keep the Ukrainians away from their main defencelines as long as possible, so that most of the Ukrainian forces are spent when they reach the main defences. On picture 4 you'll see that the first Russian major defences (black dots) are more than 10 km to the south and the first (of two) main defenceline are more than 15 km to the south.

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