Thursday, June 20, 2024

The US & UK are disagreeing about Ukraine going into NATO...The Good Sheperd Twitter Page explains why the UK is wrong on so many levels & displays delusions of grandeur

THIS IS A MUST READ TWITTER THREAD!  MAKE SURE YOU DO! But some won't want to bother so I'm popping it out here...

 If ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง wants ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ in NATO then obviously ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง needs to develop much, much, much greater military capabilities.

Europe is not even capable of defending itself from conventional Russian military forces, let alone supplying ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ with the military aid it needs. It remains heavily dependent on ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ for both. ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง currently has the smallest army its had in 200 years. Last year it had 157 available tanks. Its artillery capabilities are very limited. The RAF is in bad shape. And the royal navy has a grand total of 6 attack subs, 6 destroyers, and 7-8 available ASW frigates. So bringing ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ into NATO simply means transferring *more* European security responsibilities to ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ taxpayers and ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ soldiers. At a time when ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ is already badly overstretched between 4 different theaters. This is totally unacceptable and just D.O.A. from an American perspective. To even talk about ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ joining NATO while Europe remains so heavily dependent on ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ is kind of ridiculous. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ needs to prioritize the Pacific and shift more conventional assets, esp USAF/USN/USMC to that theater due to the rising threat from ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ. Bringing ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ would obviously undermine that. This is merely another example of Europeans, particularly the British and French, biting off way more than they can chew, assuming ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ will bail them out. If ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง seriously wants ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ in NATO then ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง needs to immediately start to spend a minimum of 4% GDP on defense and maybe closer to 4.5% or 5%. The current level of 2.2% with a "goal" of hitting 2.5% by 2030 is just entirely unserious and not even adequate to protect existing NATO territory. Conscription would also almost certainly be required to build up the reserve force to the scale needed to actually deter ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ. ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง would also need other key NATO allies to substantially increase their commitments, including France, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Canada. Time to get real. Commitments need to be aligned with *ACTUAL* capabilities. If you want to substantially expand commitments and interests then you need to substantially expand capabilities. Which means spending lots of money, among other things. Without that, it's hollow and dangerous since it harms the credibility of the commitment and makes war more likely. This is a bit like gambling. Responsible nation states don't act like con men, hoping they can BS their way through a security crisis with a nuclear-armed adversary. That's why responsible American and West European Cold War leaders were dead serious about (a) building up massive military capabilities, and (b) drawing interests & commitments in a relatively narrow way. That's prudent. That's realism. That's responsible statecraft. Not this post Cold War "we can do everything and be everywhere" neoconservatism & muscular liberalism, all while our actual real world capabilities continue to diminish year after year. 1/

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