In 2023 CSIS wargamed the Chinese invasion and our defense of Taiwan. Wonder how things look today?

 

"WARGAMING A CHINESE INVASION OF TAIWAN"

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) did develop a wargame for a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan and ran it 24 times as part of a major 2023 report, titled The First Battle of the Next War.

In most of the 24… pic.twitter.com/6Cp21qkwDM

— WORLD AT WAR (@World_At_War_6) December 3, 2025

In 2023 CSIS wargamed the Chinese invasion and our defense of Taiwan.

Considering recent Chinese advances in aviation, their changing force structure and different/additional warships added to their fleet I wonder how things look today.

What have we seen since 2023.

*  The PL-15 appears to be the terror that we were all told about.

*  Dedicated landing ships to support an amphibious assault into that country.

*  Additional amphibious ships that are capable of worldwide operations.

*  Improvements to their anti-air destroyers with new models coming online.

*  A movement toward stealth aircraft that APPEAR to rival western models currently in service.

In 2023 the report says we would win but it would be costly.  From my chair we haven't seen any real improvements in our stance in the region.

Does it remain close with us eeking out a victory (repelling the assault) or do they edge us out and win Taiwan?