Open Comment Post. 16 May 2020

The Gaure is the largest species of wild cattle...

Pentagon war-gaming analysis predicts US would be defeated in a naval battle with China and would struggle to stop an invasion of Taiwan

via The Times

The United States would be defeated in a sea war with China and would struggle to stop an invasion of Taiwan, according to a series of “eye-opening” war games by the Pentagon.

American defence sources have told The Times that simulated conflicts conducted by the US concluded that their forces would be overwhelmed. One war game focused on the year 2030, by which time the Chinese navy would operate new attack submarines, aircraft carriers and destroyers.

The analysis also found that Beijing’s accumulation of medium-range ballistic missiles has already made every US base and any American carrier battle group operating in the Indo-Pacific Command region vulnerable to overwhelming strikes. The Pacific island of Guam, a base for American strategic bombers such as the B-2 and B-52, is now considered wholly at risk.

“China has long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles and hypersonic [more than five times the speed of sound] missiles,” a US defence source said, meaning that US carrier groups could not oppose their Chinese counterparts “without suffering capital losses”.

Here. 

I can't even begin to comment because my blood boils in rage. 

Open Comment Post. 15 May 2020

Perspective via @Historic Instagram Page

For a small amount of perspective at this moment, imagine you were an American born in 1900. When you are 14, World War I starts, and ends on your 18th birthday with 22 million people killed. Later in the year, a Spanish Flu epidemic hits the planet and runs until you are 20. Fifty million people die from it in those two years. Yes, 50 million.

When you're 29, the Great Depression begins. Unemployment hits 25%, global GDP drops 27%. That runs until you are 33. The country nearly collapses along with the world economy. When you turn 39, World War II starts. You aren’t even over the hill yet.

When you're 41, the United States is fully pulled into WWII. Between your 39th and 45th birthday, 75 million people perish in the war and the Holocaust kills six million. At 52, the Korean War starts and five million perish.

At 64 the Vietnam War begins, and it doesn’t end for many years. Four million people die in that conflict. Approaching your 62nd birthday you have the Cuban Missile Crisis, a tipping point in the Cold War. Life on our planet, as we know it, could well have ended. Great leaders prevented that from happening.

As you turn 75, the Vietnam War finally ends. Think of everyone on the planet born in 1900. How do you survive all of that? A kid in 1985 didn’t think their 85 year old grandparent understood how hard school was. Yet those grandparents (and now great grandparents) survived through everything listed above.

Perspective is an amazing art. Let’s try and keep things in perspective. Let’s be smart, help each other out, and we will get through all of this. In the history of the world, there has never been a storm that lasted. This too, shall pass.
Share from @historic Yep we have lived in a great era, (thus far).

I was really drinking this in till the last part but the overall message is solid. Everything we're facing is difficult but with a caveat.  Most of this is self induced misery, not acts out of the blue by unknown forces.

The Spanish ministry of defense has approved the production of 348 VCR 8x8 wheeled armored vehicles

Story here.

Late Open Comment Post. 14 May 2020

The cure WILL BE worst than the disease....Coronavirus: US facing lasting economic damage if government fails to act,

Highlight: "The scope and speed of this downturn are without modern precedent, significantly worse than any recession since World War Two," Fed Chair Jerome Powell says. "We are seeing a significant decline in economic activity and employment." pic.twitter.com/D9hm8PPB9u

— Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) May 13, 2020

This was my fear with the lockdowns lasting as long as they have.

Businesses will close and never reopen.  Workers will have lost jobs and won't return to the job market.  Deficits will explode and the taxbase will not exist to bring them back into balance.

Of course the defense budget will take a huge hit.

Fear took hold and people demanded that the govt act.  They did.  Now we have to deal with the consequences of the actions taken.

Combat Assault Company live fire...pics by Cpl. Eric Tso

USAF abandons 80% mission capability rate goal after F-22, F-35 and F-16 fail to hit target

via FlightGlobal

The US Air Force (USAF) has abandoned mission capability rate goals for its Lockheed Martin F-22s, F-35s and F-16s, after none of the fighters hit the target.
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“The Office of the Secretary of Defense determined the fiscal year 2019 80% mission capable rate initiative is not an FY2020 requirement,” he said in written testimony sent to the US Armed Services Committee and released on 7 May. “As a result, the air force returned to allowing lead commands to determine the required [mission capability] rates to meet readiness objectives.”

After initially making rosy projections about the F-35 reaching 80% mission capability, the Department of Defense (DoD) gradually walked back its forecast. In July 2019, it said F-35s and F-22s would fail to meet the goal. Nevertheless, F-16s were supposed to hit 80% mission capability by September 2019. In the end, not one of the USAF’s fighters achieved the mark.

The F-16’s mission capable reached a high of 75% in June 2019, F-22s reached a high of 68% in April 2019 and F-35s hit a high of 74% in September 2019, says Brown in his testimony. The USN reported in September 2019 that its fleet of F/A-18s surpassed the 80% mark.

Here. 

Hmm.  The F-22 for all its glorious capabilities has been somewhat of a hanger queen since introduction.  I can't figure the issues with the F-16...something must be broken with Air Force maintenance if they can't hit the mark with that airplane.  The F-35?  My guess would be software issues, a broken ALIS (notice how that issue has faded from the news) and just another case of the tech being fragile instead of robust.

I really think that the REAL availability rates of that plane is why the Marine Corps is seeking to cut the numbers purchased.

Open Comment Post. 13 May 2020

Why did HQMC pick the Kongsberg turret for the ACV instead of other great options?

We covered this before but I have to circle back to why the Kongsberg turret. A refresher from Defense-Aerospace...

Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace AS has been selected by BAE Systems, Inc. to design and manufacture the remote Medium Caliber Turret (MCT) for the United States Marine Corps’ Amphibious Combat Vehicle (ACV) -30 program.

Kongsberg will deliver up to 150 MCTs in a phased program as part of this contract. Test article delivery will commence early 2021 followed by production phases.

The Kongsberg MCT-30 is the first remotely operated 30mm turret to be qualified and fielded in the United States. The system provides highly accurate firepower for wheeled or tracked combat vehicles. It is remotely controlled and operated from a protected position inside the vehicle compartment for optimized crew safety.

The MCT-30 leverages a link-less medium caliber cannon providing lethality, extremely high reliability and multi-user functions to the Marine Corps ACV and other platforms.

“The ACV-30 with Kongsberg’s MCT-30 turret signifies a powerful lethality capability for the Marine Corps, representative of a new era in U.S. amphibious operations,” said Pål E Bratlie, Executive Vice President Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace.

The U.S. Army, in 2015, chose Kongsberg’s MCT-30 to increase the lethality of the Stryker Brigade in Europe. The system has been fielded and operated with the Army as part of the European Deterrence Initiative since 2018.

It is the primary armament and fire control system for the Infantry Carrier Vehicle – Dragoon (ICV-D) Strykers. All MCT-30s, and any remote weapon stations, bound for U.S. customers are manufactured in the Kongsberg Johnstown, PA facility leveraging a U.S. supply base located in over 30 states.

Here 

Let me be clear up front.  This isn't a bash the HQMC or Kongsberg blog post. This is a simple why did they select this particular turret thing.  When the Army went this way in 2015, to be honest, I was kinda confused.  Even back then there were other options that seemed to offer more capability. Fast forward to today and the turret seems almost old tech.  Toss in a few realities that the Marine Corps has chosen for itself and it makes even less sense.

What do I mean?  We can expect compressed budgets because of the coronavirus.  Tanks are out so we're gonna need a mobile anti-tank capability. The Marine Corps is emphasizing sensors so a robust suite is desirable.

So where should we have looked?  Below are a few options....

Besides being hyper accurate the EOS 2000 comes with built in spike launchers, can provide protection up to STANAG 6, has active protection built in and has gunner/commander independent sensors.

Next up for consideration would be the Rafael Samson as seen on the Singaporean Hunter AFV.

It boasts some of the same features as the EOS 2000 (but in my opinion to a lesser degree) and is also another option that should have been considered.

Another consideration?  Longevity.  Was any thought given to the idea that the ACV might be FORCED to serve much longer than planned (God knows the AAV certainly did...from my recollection we had been seeking to replace that vehicle from the 80's!) so perhaps the idea of following the Army's lead and moving to a 50mm gun should have been considered.

Again, this isn't a slam HQMC, Kongsberg or any of the decision makers. A bad decision done on time can be directed.  A good decision too late is a mistake.

An explanation of how they arrived at the Kongsberg would go a long way in establishing where the Marine Corps is headed and what leadership is thinking.

The ‘Milk Tea Alliance’ & how one little girl plus a bunch of 20 somethings are pissing off China...

Thanks to Utah Bob for the link!

This is fascinating.  Check this out...

When we stand together, no evil is too big to fight. #nnevvy pic.twitter.com/K1d0QtDICh

— John Ho (@JOSHUAHUCKEBEIN) April 12, 2020

Yeah.  They're using Sailor Moon as their representative of SE Asian countries standing together against China.

But you have to read the articles Utah Bob posted to get the full flavor of the revolt in the region against Chinese hegemony.

A small sample...

A barrage of memes and posts ridiculed Chinese social media users for everything from their pro-Communist Party ideology to the spread of coronavirus. Failed attempts by Chinese social media users to mass report tweets, posts and memes that they found critical of China were also soundly mocked on social media platforms.

This is too delicious and a must read.  Check out the articles HERE, and HERE. 

Even better do you know what NNEVVY said to kick start this whole thing (assuming I'm reading this right)?  Check this out before you head out...

 The online battle started when Sukaram was accused of retweeting and sharing a Thai Twitter post that questioned whether coronavirus had emerged in a laboratory in Wuhan.

LOVE IT!